Realized P&L
+$543.8K
Unrealized P&L
-$42.2K
Hit rate
60.2%
Resolved
372
Trades
15,724
lifetime
Volume
$10.9M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$696
Open exposure
$167.8K
25 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 10-24 02:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 149 days
Categories
Politics
77% 41% +$547,544
Other
18% 49% +$6,153
Sports
4% 54% -$29,076
Crypto
1% 25% +$20,598
Tech
0% 50% -$1,409
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
31 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +73,696 $32,835 34¢ $24.7K -$8,147 10-08 18:52
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +1,616,697 $10,741 1¢ $21.8K +$11,084 05-06 00:31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes -19,264 -$17,916 94¢ $-18109 -$193 10-24 02:33
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +19,265 $14,641 94¢ $18.0K +$3,371 10-01 17:43
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes +49,962 $43,470 30¢ $15.2K -$28,231 06-30 15:04
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes +155,243 $17,083 6¢ $10.1K -$6,993 07-21 13:47
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No -10,034 -$11,192 92¢ $-9181 +$2,011 10-24 00:12
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +7,815 $6,248 92¢ $7.2K +$902 06-26 23:57
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes +26,638 $10,922 26¢ $7.1K -$3,862 07-15 22:16
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No +17,790 $6,048 40¢ $7.0K +$978 06-16 10:42
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +35,834 $1,884 18¢ $6.6K +$4,745 07-24 17:26
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +106,708 $5,463 5¢ $5.3K -$128 07-24 20:09
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +52,897 $12,695 10¢ $5.0K -$7,670 10-16 19:26
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes -14,359 -$7,323 34¢ $-4954 +$2,369 05-08 19:33
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No +12,729 $4,617 32¢ $4.1K -$544 08-31 10:50
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +68,630 $14,173 4¢ $2.5K -$11,634 09-14 17:47
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +464 $386 86¢ $398 +$12 07-07 05:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +18,406 $574 2¢ $331 -$243 10-20 14:27
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes -19,264 -$58 0¢ $-67 -$10 10-16 19:48
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 No +382 $95 8¢ $29 -$67 08-17 18:40
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes +2,614 $21 1¢ $25 +$4 09-13 20:57
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes -19,264 -$58 0¢ $-19 +$39 10-16 19:47
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +56 $23 32¢ $18 -$5 08-17 17:39
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +8 $5 100¢ $8 +$3 05-07 19:08
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Yes +87 $23 4¢ $4 -$19 05-27 17:01