Milky-Morbidity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$38.7K

Unrealized P&L

-$31.4K

Hit rate

95.3%

Resolved

Trades

14,278

lifetime

Volume

$9.56M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$670

Open exposure

$44.8K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 07-23 21:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

77% 56% +$38,695

Other

18% 100% +$13

Sports

4% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 138 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+125,064	$30,216	30¢	$36.9K	+$6,678	07-23 17:53
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+49,962	$43,470	12¢	$6.2K	$-37,225	06-30 15:04
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+4,605	$2,302	36¢	$1.7K	$-622	06-16 17:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	+357	$221	1¢	$3	$-218	06-25 13:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	55	$518.6K	525,602	14,144	+511,458	open	—	03-04 18:24
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	251	$441.8K	537,682	494,679	+43,003	open	—	06-16 12:21
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	440	$436.6K	459,719	265,913	+193,806	open	—	04-08 13:57
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	101	$433.1K	564,578	104,147	+460,432	open	—	03-23 17:47
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	214	$418.3K	878,820	532,039	+346,781	open	—	02-28 03:07
netanyahu out by march 31 854	83	$304.3K	156,801	156,801	+0	open	—	03-23 16:49
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	60	$232.6K	260,173	11,100	+249,073	open	—	04-14 23:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	150	$230.9K	162,837	115,751	+47,087	open	—	05-09 23:48
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	843	$228.0K	1,825,822	1,836,022	-10,200	open	—	04-02 01:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	154	$214.3K	205,092	76,230	+128,861	open	—	04-21 01:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	216	$209.6K	437,685	144,021	+293,664	open	—	05-27 16:22
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	111	$186.4K	94,182	94,150	+32	open	—	07-10 15:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	55	$184.3K	798,135	663,135	+135,000	Yes	+$22,375	05-09 19:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	73	$183.9K	41,834	181,845	-140,011	open	—	06-16 00:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	8	$180.0K	170,492	35,492	+135,000	Yes	+$25,911	05-09 19:06
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	243	$165.4K	212,321	204,786	+7,535	open	—	01-31 17:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	100	$159.5K	235,213	131,000	+104,213	open	—	04-28 02:20
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	144	$153.6K	249,262	243,198	+6,065	open	—	01-31 17:58
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	412	$126.0K	253,850	253,474	+375	open	—	03-24 17:16
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	58	$120.7K	71,654	71,654	+0	open	—	04-28 19:07
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	50	$108.1K	100,185	35,000	+65,185	open	—	07-07 19:17
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	217	$104.4K	118,672	69,885	+48,787	open	—	04-22 04:05
iran closes its airspace by june 8	53	$98.6K	81,084	81,084	+0	open	—	06-07 22:52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	13	$98.3K	50,700	50,700	+0	No	+$2,912	05-09 02:51
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	189	$96.7K	50,000	49,708	+292	open	—	03-04 00:37
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	61	$95.4K	71,415	57,329	+14,086	open	—	07-01 21:05
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	40	$91.5K	54,414	54,414	+0	open	—	04-01 21:12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	33	$86.8K	46,648	46,648	-0	open	—	05-13 14:13
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	635	$84.9K	358,650	210,109	+148,541	open	—	02-28 21:57
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	100	$81.8K	226,168	37,994	+188,173	open	—	01-16 04:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 21:28:15	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	861	95¢	$818	0xf308cb…
07-23 21:28:15	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	12,339	95¢	$11,722	0x15eac3…
07-23 20:56:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	22,188	68¢	$15,088	0x1fa4d3…
07-23 17:53:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xfcb685…
07-23 17:51:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	29¢	$4	0x16f894…
07-23 17:43:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	106	29¢	$31	0xc1d7c7…
07-23 17:43:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xa220c6…
07-23 17:40:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xddd370…
07-23 17:40:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	32	29¢	$9	0xfedfb2…
07-23 17:40:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0x38e5fa…
07-23 17:40:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$2	0x2ad316…
07-23 16:29:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0x0fbbe0…
07-23 16:13:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	67	29¢	$20	0xacbeec…
07-23 16:11:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0xfda7fa…
07-23 15:52:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	29¢	$145	0xf4b0ca…
07-23 15:47:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xd3857a…
07-23 15:42:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0x7a7063…
07-23 15:42:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xb852d2…
07-23 15:38:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	29¢	$4	0x6fdab4…
07-23 15:31:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x35ba6f…
07-23 15:18:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	29¢	$11	0x1fbe23…
07-23 15:10:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0xaed354…
07-23 14:59:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	29¢	$8	0x235fa7…
07-23 14:51:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,464	29¢	$424	0x73c602…
07-23 14:43:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x40a26a…
07-23 14:17:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x5c46c9…
07-23 14:17:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	49	29¢	$14	0xaeb014…
07-23 14:09:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0x35eedf…
07-23 13:21:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x078b69…
07-23 13:21:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0x12a608…
07-23 13:20:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	29¢	$4	0x381238…
07-23 13:15:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	29¢	$14	0x713c7c…
07-23 13:07:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x31bed5…
07-23 12:43:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	277	29¢	$80	0x739300…
07-23 09:49:24	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	13,575	8¢	$1,045	0xba3f9e…
07-23 08:54:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	8,605	96¢	$8,278	0x33b9e8…
07-22 20:28:40	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	194	87¢	$169	0x36a932…
07-22 20:20:19	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	25	87¢	$22	0x095b15…
07-22 20:19:13	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	2,369	87¢	$2,060	0x6c430f…
07-22 19:36:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	3,650	97¢	$3,537	0xc21c98…
07-22 19:18:57	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xee392e…
07-22 18:03:51	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	297	84¢	$249	0xe51bad…
07-22 18:01:45	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	149	84¢	$125	0xe8a185…
07-22 17:39:21	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	312	84¢	$262	0xad5a13…
07-22 17:38:46	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	5	84¢	$5	0x117b17…
07-22 17:33:28	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	2,258	84¢	$1,896	0x6b8a20…
07-22 15:18:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	13,923	93¢	$12,948	0x2fed6a…
07-22 13:43:30	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	3,001	90¢	$2,701	0xddbfc9…
07-22 13:36:33	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	2,980	90¢	$2,682	0xc0d221…
07-22 13:31:13	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	3,390	90¢	$3,051	0xc5f523…
07-22 13:27:27	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x390721…
07-22 13:26:31	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x91457c…
07-22 13:23:33	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	5,000	90¢	$4,500	0x5db322…
07-22 13:02:18	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	469	75¢	$352	0xc866aa…
07-22 13:02:18	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x2af148…
07-22 12:53:19	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	266	75¢	$199	0x36ad35…
07-22 12:53:07	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	620	90¢	$558	0xd82f0c…
07-22 12:38:40	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	142	90¢	$128	0xcb2259…
07-22 12:24:07	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	46	75¢	$34	0x313f9e…
07-22 11:01:42	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	294	75¢	$221	0x283f88…
07-21 21:21:06	chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x756782…
07-21 21:20:03	chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x49feb3…
07-21 15:27:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0xc53d43…
07-21 15:04:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0xf4d3ac…
07-21 15:00:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	58	27¢	$16	0xa9eb35…
07-21 14:41:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	70	27¢	$19	0x8bbfc0…
07-21 14:28:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	No	BUY	9	27¢	$3	0x5002ce…
07-21 10:56:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20,490	26¢	$5,327	0x1e0efd…
07-20 13:16:43	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9,129	37¢	$3,378	0x81d155…
07-20 13:16:15	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	37¢	$185	0xeca856…
07-20 13:13:57	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	371	37¢	$137	0xa46b4c…
07-20 12:38:06	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x125c5a…
07-20 12:38:01	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9,019	50¢	$4,509	0xe066ce…
07-20 12:35:28	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	965	50¢	$482	0xb2142f…
07-20 11:49:51	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	36¢	$3	0xcf47ca…
07-20 11:49:22	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	239	36¢	$86	0x422904…
07-20 11:42:45	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3,960	37¢	$1,465	0x4c7f84…
07-20 11:41:13	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xe02c8e…
07-20 11:41:12	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	37¢	$6	0x5c7d9a…
07-20 11:41:10	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	37¢	$18	0xdb8610…
07-20 11:41:10	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	183	37¢	$68	0x81040d…
07-20 11:41:10	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	317	37¢	$117	0x6b0967…
07-20 11:41:10	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x5190c1…
07-20 11:41:10	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	37¢	$6	0x2a4891…
07-20 11:38:21	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3,832	36¢	$1,369	0x6f7bad…
07-20 07:45:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	15,520	82¢	$12,726	0x9f4248…
07-20 07:42:43	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	300	82¢	$246	0x3f19b9…
07-20 07:37:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	52	82¢	$43	0xc40e7b…
07-20 07:37:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x46246b…
07-20 07:37:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0x59c3e3…
07-20 07:37:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2,000	82¢	$1,640	0x57ee85…
07-20 07:35:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0xba4a8f…
07-20 07:35:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x9aeebd…
07-20 07:35:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0x770ef4…
07-20 07:35:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0xd663a2…
07-20 07:35:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xc41c20…
07-20 07:35:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0x27dd37…
07-20 07:35:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0x059b47…
07-20 07:35:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xe65305…
07-20 07:35:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0xbf2939…