Knowing-Endpoint — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

726

lifetime

Volume

$956

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 06-12 20:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

84% 100% +$14

Other

10% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 59 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	245	$208	536	461	+75	open	—	05-29 19:53
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	31	$63	65	65	+0	open	—	04-10 19:41
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	21	$62	83	83	+1	open	—	04-10 19:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	21	$43	74	69	+5	open	—	05-26 14:38
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	34	$33	43	34	+9	open	—	05-22 16:11
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	26	$30	35	14	+21	open	—	05-30 16:12
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	23	$28	40	38	+2	open	—	05-20 08:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	10	$26	35	20	+15	Yes	+$7	05-08 19:18
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	27	$22	34	31	+3	open	—	04-07 23:15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	22	$21	17	17	+0	open	—	05-29 17:58
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	21	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	04-10 19:41
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$20	16	16	+0	open	—	04-10 19:41
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	7	$19	11	11	+0	open	—	04-10 19:40
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	18	$16	20	19	+1	open	—	05-14 15:49
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	10	$16	15	15	+0	open	—	04-10 19:40
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	9	$15	8	8	+0	open	—	05-15 18:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	16	$13	39	6	+33	open	—	05-14 11:34
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	5	$12	11	14	-3	open	—	06-12 20:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	4	$12	9	9	+0	open	—	05-29 17:59
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	3	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	05-10 20:18
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3	$12	25	28	-3	open	—	06-12 20:55
ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	3	$11	5	8	-3	open	—	06-12 20:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	6	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	05-29 17:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	3	$9	34	26	+9	open	—	05-10 19:19
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	6	$9	9	4	+5	open	—	05-14 05:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$9	16	0	+16	Yes	+$8	05-08 18:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6	$8	11	20	-9	open	—	06-12 20:55
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	4	$8	7	7	+0	open	—	04-07 19:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	9	$8	8	1	+6	open	—	05-18 11:41
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$8	0	16	-16	open	—	06-12 20:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 20:57:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	58¢	$0	0xc8e26b…
06-12 20:57:15	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0x33a2fe…
06-12 20:57:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	19	0¢	$0	0x3261fb…
06-12 20:57:09	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0xb9b5cf…
06-12 20:57:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x445628…
06-12 20:56:58	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	12¢	$0	0x8857af…
06-12 20:56:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0xface69…
06-12 20:56:52	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	17¢	$0	0x1754af…
06-12 20:56:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0xaf2924…
06-12 20:56:45	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0x889aaa…
06-12 20:56:39	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa6278c…
06-12 20:56:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	23¢	$1	0x3050e9…
06-12 20:56:25	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0x64e8db…
06-12 20:56:22	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x09176c…
06-12 20:56:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	6	47¢	$3	0x75cd63…
06-12 20:56:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	41¢	$3	0x7213b8…
06-12 20:56:10	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0x0ac095…
06-12 20:56:07	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0xff0c8a…
06-12 20:56:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xd30db6…
06-12 20:55:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	18	19¢	$4	0xdd1e93…
06-12 20:55:49	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0xda6dd5…
06-12 20:55:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	8	51¢	$4	0x522ae4…
06-12 20:55:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	28	14¢	$4	0xe73ee8…
06-12 20:55:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	11	52¢	$6	0x78d21f…
06-12 20:55:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	14	49¢	$7	0xd71714…
06-12 20:55:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	9	82¢	$7	0xdc353a…
06-12 20:55:24	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	No	SELL	8	96¢	$7	0x9fc9e3…
06-12 20:53:30	btc updown 5m 1781297400	Down	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xc9791a…
06-12 20:53:22	btc updown 5m 1781297400	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6b8634…
05-30 16:12:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x8c740a…
05-30 02:48:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x6ef08b…
05-29 23:00:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xcc9176…
05-29 20:39:27	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x9ba695…
05-29 19:53:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	8¢	$1	0xfd7198…
05-29 19:53:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	8¢	$1	0x7b705a…
05-29 18:49:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	9¢	$1	0x32f40c…
05-29 18:48:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0xb8f6e1…
05-29 18:27:50	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0xc94c6a…
05-29 18:21:58	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x9b55ee…
05-29 18:18:37	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0xc588d7…
05-29 18:13:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0xec8030…
05-29 17:59:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0xdc07dd…
05-29 17:58:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0xca5708…
05-29 17:58:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0xc0dc8b…
05-29 17:32:23	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	79¢	$0	0xd67de1…
05-29 17:32:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x0d405f…
05-29 17:23:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0x841ecd…
05-29 17:23:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0x21d401…
05-29 17:20:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1	42¢	$0	0x339e78…
05-29 17:04:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x728b25…
05-29 17:03:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0xd3f7ba…
05-29 16:56:27	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x435459…
05-29 16:54:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x9d9c0a…
05-29 16:53:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	72¢	$0	0xd959b7…
05-29 16:50:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xb62630…
05-29 16:50:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x49d308…
05-29 16:49:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x943cba…
05-29 16:49:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x3bddb2…
05-29 16:44:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x8cb560…
05-29 16:43:49	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x43d695…
05-29 16:43:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xf6f2a8…
05-29 16:26:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x287829…
05-29 16:25:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x275ad4…
05-29 16:24:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xc03f0d…
05-29 16:22:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xca2691…
05-29 15:49:11	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x9238c0…
05-29 15:48:57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x39483c…
05-29 15:29:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	78¢	$1	0xec0e13…
05-29 15:28:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	87¢	$3	0xa54418…
05-29 15:22:21	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x35e017…
05-29 15:21:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0x60974b…
05-29 15:17:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x45ad7f…
05-29 15:08:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0x451f81…
05-29 15:08:25	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0x565c65…
05-29 15:06:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0xb9fbdb…
05-29 15:05:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0xbf70ee…
05-29 15:04:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0x712982…
05-29 14:56:41	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x7bee13…
05-29 14:39:46	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xd856a0…
05-29 14:22:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x7db7ee…
05-29 12:38:56	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xdebe84…
05-29 10:31:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x5e3245…
05-29 05:01:38	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0xc7ad7f…
05-29 03:05:10	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x932226…
05-29 03:03:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x577c9b…
05-29 03:02:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x4c0b71…
05-28 23:54:02	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	No	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x6d97b5…
05-28 23:34:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xaa657a…
05-28 22:55:51	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x0193dd…
05-28 20:35:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x0ee5e0…
05-28 20:33:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0xa6c977…
05-28 19:57:26	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0xce2793…
05-28 19:57:14	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0xa455a0…
05-28 19:35:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	12¢	$0	0x8f72fb…
05-28 17:17:29	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0xf68be7…
05-28 17:08:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x41658a…
05-28 16:51:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xa1d72c…
05-28 16:32:50	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xb18d8a…
05-28 15:18:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0xc4804b…
05-28 14:49:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	11¢	$0	0x1ac832…