Limited-Graphic — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$19.6K

Unrealized P&L

+$617

Hit rate

77.3%

Resolved

127

Trades

2,236

lifetime

Volume

$634.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$284

Open exposure

$15.5K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-21 20:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 55 days

Categories

Politics

77% 68% +$15,773

Other

23% 72% +$3,823

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	+6,500	$5,775	94¢	$6.1K	+$367	07-17 09:47
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	+6,000	$5,440	96¢	$5.8K	+$320	07-21 08:33
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-1,600	-$1,264	82¢	$-1312	-$48	07-15 21:35
russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	+1,000	$790	99¢	$991	+$201	06-16 09:49
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	+805	$599	84¢	$681	+$82	07-15 07:19
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	+390	$310	96¢	$372	+$63	06-21 20:28
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	+4,155	$424	4¢	$166	-$258	08-21 20:59
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	+2,222	$178	3¢	$68	-$110	08-02 14:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	31	$55.4K	33,386	34,397	-1,011	No	+$1,831	01-31 17:17
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	215	$38.2K	30,874	31,476	-603	Yes	+$1,495	04-05 04:22
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	3	$32.0K	21,111	11,032	+10,079	No	+$49	01-03 22:57
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	135	$21.9K	21,282	13,000	+8,282	Yes	-$992	02-27 11:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	83	$17.1K	43,902	43,902	+0	Yes	-$8,873	03-01 10:11
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	29	$16.8K	16,218	11,801	+4,417	No	+$1,384	01-31 17:06
will israel or the us target an iranian nuclear facility 276	5	$16.7K	16,718	0	+16,718	Yes	+$46	03-03 23:29
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	12	$15.9K	17,250	0	+17,250	No	+$1,368	07-15 21:52
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	40	$15.3K	20,239	17,239	+3,000	Yes	-$872	02-27 14:27
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	16	$14.8K	18,156	2,500	+15,656	Yes	+$4,913	02-27 12:43
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	48	$14.3K	8,761	8,761	+0	No	+$2,325	03-31 20:51
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	38	$13.2K	69,229	69,229	+0	Yes	-$9,254	03-01 07:59
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	33	$12.9K	13,549	0	+13,549	No	+$555	07-15 21:47
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	34	$12.7K	13,692	0	+13,692	Yes	+$962	04-08 18:16
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	131	$12.7K	22,191	17,832	+4,359	No	-$5,351	04-30 15:39
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	10	$12.3K	14,315	0	+14,315	Yes	+$2,007	04-08 08:36
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	14	$11.7K	6,635	6,635	+0	No	+$304	01-23 20:16
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	5	$11.1K	11,111	0	+11,111	Yes	+$22	04-27 18:09
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	119	$10.1K	26,351	20,851	+5,500	Yes	-$8,576	04-08 08:25
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	18	$9.6K	15,024	3,800	+11,224	Yes	+$5,529	04-08 21:47
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	15	$9.3K	13,000	3,000	+10,000	No	+$2,050	03-04 03:22
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	16	$9.1K	17,626	2,000	+15,626	Yes	-$7,109	02-27 13:00
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	35	$8.8K	20,000	7,000	+13,000	No	-$5,987	03-25 12:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	25	$8.4K	10,000	10,000	+0	Yes	+$5,025	04-07 22:13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	14	$8.1K	8,626	0	+8,626	No	+$556	06-11 13:57
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	9	$8.0K	8,501	0	+8,501	No	+$511	05-22 22:51
russia x ukraine ceasefire by june 30 2026 631	7	$7.8K	8,109	0	+8,109	No	+$292	06-18 22:33
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?	37	$7.6K	7,473	317	+7,156	No	+$137	06-13 09:44
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	40	$7.6K	4,956	5,869	-913	No	+$3,087	01-24 01:28
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	47	$7.3K	7,404	0	+7,404	Yes	+$98	04-24 14:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-21 20:59:04	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,382	8¢	$111	0xdf8615…
08-21 17:11:22	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x9f40e8…
08-21 17:11:15	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$1	0xce3b50…
08-21 07:58:01	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x80b541…
08-21 07:55:51	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0x5700c6…
08-20 20:19:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	8¢	$24	0xe2e454…
08-20 13:56:51	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0xd675c6…
08-20 11:57:45	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x26067c…
08-20 11:27:16	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x780bab…
08-20 10:58:58	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xe49b47…
08-20 10:48:48	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x41c481…
08-20 10:48:39	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xd92da0…
08-20 10:48:36	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xc8a3a3…
08-20 10:48:33	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xa01261…
08-20 10:48:31	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x471820…
08-20 10:48:25	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x9b3673…
08-20 10:48:19	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xdfa3bc…
08-20 10:48:15	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x19ed06…
08-20 10:48:15	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x0f9aa5…
08-19 18:17:39	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0x63e41a…
08-19 17:41:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	86	8¢	$7	0x966b49…
08-19 12:50:03	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x151974…
08-19 02:03:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x2ecbc4…
08-18 09:36:43	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	8¢	$2	0x60ef4f…
08-17 12:48:07	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x058cf8…
08-15 12:47:58	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x4004b9…
08-14 12:47:24	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x700dfe…
08-12 16:44:21	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x40c6d3…
08-12 12:48:10	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x6c719b…
08-11 20:36:34	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	792	8¢	$63	0x712ca2…
08-10 17:30:16	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	29	8¢	$2	0x8b47de…
08-10 13:38:10	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x7cdc45…
08-10 12:46:30	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x8c4cfd…
08-09 15:47:45	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x634222…
08-09 15:08:00	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	284	8¢	$23	0xac8b92…
08-09 11:25:06	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	127	8¢	$10	0xae4af9…
08-07 15:25:24	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x68ca07…
08-05 13:27:17	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x471eed…
08-04 09:47:38	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x0f17fb…
08-02 14:16:56	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,912	8¢	$153	0x3e6f78…
08-01 09:52:20	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	101	8¢	$8	0x7d44d5…
07-21 08:33:27	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	90¢	$1,800	0x544413…
07-18 18:56:00	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0xf0484a…
07-18 18:55:19	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xd27211…
07-18 18:55:00	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x69f0e5…
07-18 18:55:00	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x3496a7…
07-17 21:34:19	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x3a0c21…
07-17 15:03:25	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	BUY	53	8¢	$4	0x48869e…
07-17 09:47:15	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0x1f2de0…
07-17 09:46:55	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	500	89¢	$445	0xc4e57e…
07-16 06:30:08	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$1	0x7e0d94…
07-16 05:09:43	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0xc52c9f…
07-15 21:52:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,250	89¢	$1,112	0x413ce5…
07-15 21:47:44	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	220	97¢	$212	0x814a7c…
07-15 21:47:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	146	96¢	$141	0xac9f5a…
07-15 21:46:43	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	245	90¢	$221	0x393bda…
07-15 21:35:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,600	79¢	$1,264	0x7aa397…
07-15 21:30:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	4,381	91¢	$4,000	0xd4c8a4…
07-15 21:08:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	798	92¢	$731	0xb953cf…
07-15 21:07:08	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	602	92¢	$552	0x043023…
07-15 13:42:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	6,350	94¢	$6,000	0xef446c…
07-15 07:19:32	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x02689e…
07-14 16:58:08	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	BUY	600	78¢	$468	0x2f3a18…
07-14 00:14:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	427	96¢	$411	0x3e4128…
07-13 22:50:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x54ead2…
07-13 22:50:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x36b2f5…
07-13 22:49:37	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	150	96¢	$144	0xa4d9bc…
07-13 22:47:56	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	37	96¢	$36	0x698b86…
07-13 22:42:14	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	305	96¢	$294	0x542271…
07-13 22:12:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	42	96¢	$41	0x611536…
07-13 21:43:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x3d19e2…
07-13 21:42:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	79	96¢	$76	0x38a58d…
07-13 21:37:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x48a2d3…
07-13 20:51:32	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x659509…
07-13 20:49:35	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	78	96¢	$75	0xeb0ecd…
07-13 19:58:20	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	4	91¢	$3	0x2c138a…
07-13 19:58:07	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xe2424e…
07-13 19:58:07	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x797bc4…
07-13 19:58:07	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x623002…
07-13 19:57:55	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0xf94124…
07-13 19:57:55	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x37bd4b…
07-13 19:57:55	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	333	91¢	$303	0x2242c0…
07-13 19:57:55	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x07e92d…
07-13 19:47:08	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	462	96¢	$445	0x4da289…
07-13 19:25:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	2,000	93¢	$1,852	0x672e77…
07-13 19:21:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$968	0xc5dd8b…
07-13 18:47:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$969	0x494bbd…
07-13 14:21:59	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	68	91¢	$62	0xc4c903…
07-13 11:40:17	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xb106e7…
07-13 02:40:13	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	17	91¢	$15	0x5e19cc…
07-12 17:08:52	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	8¢	$2	0x6afb29…
07-12 12:34:56	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	2,000	97¢	$1,948	0x598fdc…
07-11 19:14:38	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x5d19a6…
07-08 14:35:43	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	2,067	97¢	$2,000	0x1acd4d…
07-08 13:24:43	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	698	97¢	$678	0x187f85…
07-08 13:21:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1,524	97¢	$1,480	0x7e3fae…
07-07 20:57:23	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	179	91¢	$163	0x75e33d…
07-07 17:52:23	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x98ab4c…
07-07 17:50:35	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x379d2a…
07-07 17:30:37	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	BUY	500	89¢	$445	0x4a220e…