Open-Armchair — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$463

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

84.4%

Resolved

169

Trades

688

lifetime

Volume

$44.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

$170

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-29 06:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 87 days

Categories

Politics

49% 82% +$51

Other

37% 88% +$396

Crypto

10% 88% +$3

Sports

3% 57% +$2

Tech

1% 80% +$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No		+170	$158	96¢	$163	+$5	05-25 06:25
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes		+170	$11	4¢	$7	-$5	05-31 20:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	26	$2.8K	2,503	2,903	-400	No	-$14	03-14 03:45
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	8	$2.4K	1,222	1,222	+0	No	+$2	03-14 02:53
Trump out as President by April 30?	18	$2.2K	1,134	1,134	+0	No	+$3	04-22 04:07
Iran leadership change by March 13?	28	$2.1K	6,235	7,084	-849	No	+$15	03-15 14:15
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June?	7	$1.9K	1,000	991	+9	No	+$13	06-02 05:06
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	5	$1.8K	1,200	1,200	+0	No	-$15	03-13 12:15
trump out as president by march 31	6	$1.3K	676	676	+0	No	+$1	02-14 03:53
Will Dplus Esports Win Challengers 2026: Korea WDG Split 2	4	$972	657	657	+0	No	+$34	07-07 08:26
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	7	$892	450	448	+1	No	+$0	02-13 05:29
will solana reach 200 in february 2026	4	$886	445	445	+0	No	+$0	02-19 09:54
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	14	$847	425	425	+0	No	+$0	01-09 15:56
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	8	$717	404	321	+83	Yes	+$2	02-08 05:40
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	7	$679	454	227	+227	Yes	+$1	02-20 15:34
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	3	$648	433	217	+216	No	+$1	02-03 07:04
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	3	$643	437	220	+216	No	+$2	01-25 10:12
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?	9	$612	344	344	+0	open	—	09-07 09:22
will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	5	$563	285	285	+0	No	+$1	03-23 12:27
Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?	8	$561	1,252	132	+1,120	open	—	09-06 05:50
graham platner charged by august 31 20260706214559481	8	$521	866	170	+696	No	+$33	07-07 08:32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	4	$499	254	254	+0	No	+$1	04-13 18:58
Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	12	$493	773	253	+520	No	+$52	09-06 02:47
will the us next strike iran on february 8 2026 et	2	$440	220	220	+0	No	+$0	02-09 13:21
will bad bunny perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	4	$437	219	219	+0	Yes	+$0	02-08 15:09
will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	2	$429	217	217	+0	No	+$1	02-05 02:43
will ethereum dip to 1400 in january 2026 585	3	$424	213	213	+0	No	+$0	01-14 13:14
will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	4	$424	213	213	-0	No	+$0	01-11 09:30
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$422	214	214	+0	Yes	+$1	01-24 01:08
Will there be no next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?	6	$412	929	0	+929	open	—	07-07 10:29
Will Trump say "Meta" in September?	15	$411	546	207	+340	Yes	+$14	09-29 06:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	2	$404	204	204	+0	No	+$1	05-09 02:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-29 06:28:11	Will Trump say "Meta" in September?	Yes	SELL	108	38¢	$41	0x9fd416…
09-28 21:54:44	Will Trump say "Meta" in September?	Yes	SELL	97	60¢	$58	0xf59c45…
09-18 19:41:54	Will Trump say "Meta" in September?	Yes	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x275d75…
09-07 13:25:55	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.70% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	6¢	$8	0xd23c18…
09-07 13:18:27	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.70% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x826e77…
09-07 13:17:03	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.70% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0xe28730…
09-07 13:16:13	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.70% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x917344…
09-07 11:25:43	Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Yes	SELL	23	67¢	$15	0x875df6…
09-07 10:13:48	Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	No	BUY	155	28¢	$43	0xda1239…
09-07 10:11:45	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$47	0x38d0ba…
09-07 10:11:19	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x648078…
09-07 10:03:40	Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Yes	BUY	68	71¢	$49	0x78fa7e…
09-07 10:03:40	Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Yes	BUY	9	72¢	$6	0x2e5530…
09-07 10:02:55	Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Yes	BUY	120	65¢	$78	0x7bbf4c…
09-07 10:02:01	Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x9afb61…
09-07 10:02:01	Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	No	SELL	139	39¢	$54	0x53260a…
09-07 09:58:16	Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	No	BUY	28	42¢	$12	0xf3bfb8…
09-07 09:58:16	Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	No	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xb2eaf4…
09-07 09:57:39	Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	No	BUY	104	35¢	$36	0x4c8059…
09-07 09:22:39	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?	No	SELL	30	91¢	$27	0x4aa241…
09-07 09:20:27	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?	No	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x891a4f…
09-07 09:18:03	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.70% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0xa203dd…
09-07 09:06:49	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x4e9cfa…
09-07 09:05:33	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?	No	SELL	294	92¢	$270	0xf4aa55…
09-07 09:05:31	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xdb987b…
09-07 09:04:55	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.70% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x7f2cfe…
09-07 08:59:42	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?	No	SELL	35	91¢	$32	0x0e28a4…
09-07 08:55:07	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?	No	BUY	201	85¢	$170	0x73c1bc…
09-07 08:52:40	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?	No	BUY	43	82¢	$36	0x9d9f70…
09-07 08:50:34	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xa55a6c…
09-07 08:30:40	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0xe9c204…
09-07 08:29:16	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x6a505d…
09-07 08:26:21	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0x7cf008…
09-07 08:25:42	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x1a0a1d…
09-07 08:22:22	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?	No	BUY	35	90¢	$31	0xc53f2b…
09-07 08:21:03	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x43829f…
09-07 08:20:52	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0x9d2be3…
09-07 08:17:36	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	93¢	$39	0x71ede1…
09-07 08:13:31	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.25% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	38¢	$42	0x0db14a…
09-07 07:46:15	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.25% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x5b468d…
09-07 07:42:27	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.25% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	21¢	$22	0xd7cd5f…
09-07 07:00:22	Will Patrick Paquet win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x3225e5…
09-07 06:29:22	Will United Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?	No	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x5006ad…
09-07 06:20:51	Will United Russia win the next Samara Oblast Parliament elections?	No	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x76c5a7…
09-07 05:19:39	Will Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu win the Falealili 1 by-election?	No	SELL	99	55¢	$54	0x8d5f13…
09-07 05:18:10	Will Yiwarr McGrath win the next Mulka by-election?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x66b2d6…
09-07 04:21:00	Will Patrick Paquet win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election?	No	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0xb89672…
09-07 04:07:49	Will Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu win the Falealili 1 by-election?	No	BUY	35	46¢	$16	0x0a7898…
09-07 03:59:46	Will Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu win the Falealili 1 by-election?	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x3e8183…
09-07 03:58:21	Will Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu win the Falealili 1 by-election?	No	BUY	59	46¢	$27	0x2b5cca…
09-07 03:55:52	Will United Russia win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections?	Yes	SELL	51	94¢	$48	0x4dcfa9…
09-07 03:49:31	Will Yiwarr McGrath win the next Mulka by-election?	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x22274f…
09-07 03:42:58	Will Yiwarr McGrath win the next Mulka by-election?	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x5b9235…
09-07 03:41:33	Will United Russia win the next Vologda Oblast Parliament elections?	Yes	BUY	51	94¢	$48	0x6811f2…
09-07 03:29:04	Will Sheldon Starrett win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	70	2¢	$1	0xbee641…
09-06 21:33:28	Will Trump say "Meta" in September?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x533dc8…
09-06 05:50:06	Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x85ca69…
09-06 05:44:36	Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	14¢	$12	0xc27b31…
09-06 05:43:27	Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x4ecfa4…
09-06 05:43:27	Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?	No	BUY	300	86¢	$257	0x00f73d…
09-06 05:17:24	fetterman out by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	66	4¢	$3	0x89a232…
09-06 05:10:46	Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?	No	BUY	260	87¢	$226	0x4abfc5…
09-06 05:07:40	Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	631	9¢	$56	0x162b7d…
09-06 04:47:30	Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0x374ab9…
09-06 04:34:25	Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xef2027…
09-06 04:24:24	fetterman out by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	66	5¢	$3	0x26d075…
09-06 02:47:21	Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	18	41¢	$7	0x71fdfc…
09-06 02:45:24	Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	235	57¢	$135	0x721c6b…
09-06 02:21:58	Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	16	57¢	$9	0x47cbe2…
09-06 02:21:55	Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xa71d11…
09-06 02:06:40	Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x81ff77…
09-06 02:05:13	Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x558c30…
09-06 02:05:12	Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	No	BUY	160	37¢	$59	0x026e35…
09-06 01:51:42	Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0xa4011e…
09-06 01:45:24	Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x9af579…
09-06 01:45:21	Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	51	57¢	$29	0xd8f5a4…
09-06 01:44:43	Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	397	46¢	$183	0x6b47df…
09-06 01:24:37	Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + USR + UDMR?	Yes	BUY	26	9¢	$2	0x27218f…
09-05 15:51:40	Will Trump say "Meta" in September?	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x6622f1…
09-05 04:55:34	fetterman out by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	41	5¢	$2	0x8d51b5…
09-05 04:53:03	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	No	SELL	40	49¢	$20	0xda3d25…
09-05 04:33:07	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	No	SELL	13	60¢	$8	0x17f62e…
09-05 04:24:33	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	No	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x4beb62…
09-05 04:21:34	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xf63963…
09-05 04:20:24	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	No	BUY	43	45¢	$19	0x4442af…
09-05 04:12:01	will the first announced price of the foldable iphone be at least 2400	Yes	SELL	40	14¢	$6	0x6495e7…
09-05 03:44:54	will the first announced price of the foldable iphone be at least 2400	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0xb6e9e0…
09-05 03:33:34	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Yes	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0x0e3ecb…
09-05 03:33:09	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x2cc3e1…
09-05 03:27:28	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	No	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0xa40324…
09-05 03:23:42	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x817480…
09-05 03:23:27	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xdcf477…
09-05 03:23:03	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Yes	BUY	84	39¢	$33	0x784138…
09-05 01:31:30	Will Trump say "Meta" in September?	No	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0xda87af…
09-05 01:18:49	will the first announced price of the foldable iphone be at least 2400	Yes	SELL	23	15¢	$4	0x1f452f…
09-05 01:00:16	fetterman out by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	23	5¢	$1	0xda3908…
09-05 00:59:24	fetterman out by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	58	5¢	$3	0x1332e2…
09-05 00:46:22	will the first announced price of the foldable iphone be at least 2400	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0x5cf6c7…
09-05 00:40:15	will the first announced price of the foldable iphone be at least 2400	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb60318…
09-05 00:40:13	will the first announced price of the foldable iphone be at least 2400	Yes	SELL	80	22¢	$18	0x6a00dd…