Little-Soliloquy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

-$23

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

332

lifetime

Volume

$125.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$378

Open exposure

$286

1 position

First seen

2026-01-20

last 06-28 20:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

50% 100% +$9

Politics

45% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No		-333	$-263	86¢	$-286	$-23	06-02 12:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US strike Iran next?	29	$28.7K	16,480	12,794	+3,686	open	—	03-01 23:56
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	40	$18.8K	11,000	10,803	+197	open	—	03-07 12:55
new stranger things episode released by april 30	25	$6.7K	4,204	2,525	+1,679	open	—	04-30 20:19
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$5.0K	5,008	0	+5,008	open	—	06-03 23:30
netanyahu out by march 31 854	5	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	03-19 19:44
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	31	$3.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$5	04-21 16:34
will there be at least 650 measles cases in the us by january 31 2026	9	$3.8K	2,887	1,557	+1,330	open	—	01-30 17:53
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	39	$3.6K	3,600	0	+3,600	open	—	06-28 20:27
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	22	$3.4K	1,610	1,938	-328	open	—	04-07 16:09
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	1	$3.0K	2,998	0	+2,998	open	—	03-11 11:59
will company b be accused of insider trading	30	$2.9K	2,311	2,311	+0	open	—	02-23 22:22
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	1	$2.9K	2,900	0	+2,900	open	—	03-04 18:38
Will the US strike Iran next?	2	$2.6K	2,570	0	+2,570	open	—	02-11 22:23
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	1	$2.5K	2,555	0	+2,555	open	—	02-07 14:44
Will the US strike Iran next?	6	$2.5K	2,550	0	+2,550	open	—	02-04 17:56
will melania say career during ai talk on friday	1	$2.4K	2,416	0	+2,416	open	—	01-20 14:47
Will the US strike Iran next?	1	$2.4K	2,450	0	+2,450	open	—	01-27 18:37
earnings mentions netflix 2026 01 20 warner bros 1 times	1	$2.4K	2,400	0	+2,400	open	—	01-22 17:54
us strike on somalia by january 31 956	9	$2.3K	4,415	2,085	+2,330	open	—	01-26 23:07
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	5	$2.2K	1,500	990	+510	open	—	03-09 15:12
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$2.0K	2,004	0	+2,004	Yes	+$4	05-03 08:58
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	9	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-26 20:09
will hezbollah conduct military action against israel on march 22 2026 854	5	$1.6K	1,600	0	+1,600	open	—	03-29 00:36
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	1	$1.6K	1,600	0	+1,600	open	—	03-26 20:12
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	5	$1.6K	1,600	0	+1,600	open	—	03-23 23:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$1.6K	1,600	0	+1,600	open	—	06-16 08:12
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$1.5K	1,501	0	+1,501	open	—	04-30 20:19
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	2	$1.0K	1,047	0	+1,047	open	—	01-30 20:18
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$998	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-09 00:53
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$996	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-07 16:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 20:27:10	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,820	100¢	$1,816	0x3df74b…
06-28 19:48:49	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x31c723…
06-28 15:01:52	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7bd3dc…
06-28 14:14:44	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x1d9d98…
06-28 14:14:32	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfd101a…
06-28 14:04:16	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x62fb66…
06-28 13:19:55	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x3ec2b1…
06-28 12:42:01	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x97eeba…
06-28 10:59:20	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x073c85…
06-28 10:31:59	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x0a8165…
06-28 09:29:32	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x84527b…
06-28 09:27:44	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x57aace…
06-28 09:26:22	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xdd0a7b…
06-28 08:50:05	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x764bdd…
06-28 08:29:11	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2c9d27…
06-28 08:12:50	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x87a6c7…
06-28 07:08:43	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x458bef…
06-28 06:59:59	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd62fd8…
06-28 06:57:49	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe369b9…
06-28 06:20:50	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x0d31e3…
06-28 04:35:07	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x8860bd…
06-28 04:18:17	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0af2d5…
06-28 03:26:07	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x17070b…
06-28 03:18:04	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xde64c2…
06-28 02:27:28	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0x609555…
06-28 02:08:43	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x244321…
06-28 02:05:02	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xe5d043…
06-28 01:18:49	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xd33f2b…
06-28 01:13:37	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x404a4d…
06-28 01:11:50	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x88b767…
06-28 00:14:58	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8ab0dc…
06-27 22:49:37	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x8e3a84…
06-27 22:49:19	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xda838b…
06-27 21:51:28	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5d5cda…
06-27 21:39:59	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xb7c7be…
06-27 21:33:46	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x354c87…
06-27 21:29:46	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb65f9e…
06-27 20:49:14	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3c5e47…
06-27 20:23:59	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1a75f5…
06-16 08:12:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,600	97¢	$1,558	0x024053…
06-03 23:30:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,996	100¢	$2,990	0xa05bbb…
06-03 23:16:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$299	0x532c86…
06-02 12:36:26	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	333	79¢	$263	0x1edafb…
06-02 07:17:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,712	99¢	$1,700	0xfd1411…
05-26 20:09:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$992	0x15a7a6…
05-16 10:30:35	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	500	96¢	$480	0xb512bb…
05-03 08:58:36	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2,004	100¢	$2,000	0x33979d…
05-01 21:15:14	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	880	91¢	$801	0x8532e0…
05-01 10:39:38	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xc676de…
05-01 10:22:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x741920…
05-01 10:09:12	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xe0ddab…
05-01 10:00:12	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0x27c9f6…
05-01 09:59:22	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	78	91¢	$71	0x2ceab9…
05-01 09:54:50	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x48f4a3…
05-01 09:51:06	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	0	91¢	$0	0x16afec…
04-30 20:19:36	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	321	100¢	$320	0x5cb609…
04-30 20:19:06	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	321	100¢	$321	0x6cda6a…
04-28 19:00:30	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	1,179	100¢	$1,177	0x861f82…
04-23 00:08:50	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0x56bb44…
04-21 16:34:28	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	1,000	94¢	$941	0x394663…
04-21 14:58:20	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	937	94¢	$877	0xc87790…
04-21 12:48:20	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	47	94¢	$44	0x54cfb4…
04-21 12:48:20	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x3a1a34…
04-20 03:27:36	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	38	94¢	$36	0x6afc7d…
04-20 03:19:42	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0x158364…
04-20 03:15:22	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	52	94¢	$49	0x3c1f04…
04-20 03:15:00	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xd26c34…
04-20 03:09:44	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0xe57fb8…
04-20 03:08:58	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	507	94¢	$479	0x09f164…
04-20 03:07:14	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0xaded14…
04-20 02:57:08	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	108	94¢	$102	0xe09360…
04-20 01:29:46	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0x3bdab8…
04-20 01:29:44	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	35	95¢	$33	0x5cf206…
04-20 01:27:00	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	33	94¢	$31	0x3df617…
04-20 01:26:48	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	24	94¢	$22	0xe25b36…
04-20 01:26:38	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	25	94¢	$23	0x0318ea…
04-20 01:09:54	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	37	94¢	$35	0xa7a6ee…
04-20 00:35:26	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	96	94¢	$91	0xbd0f1f…
04-18 15:33:18	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	424	99¢	$422	0x62416f…
04-17 16:41:50	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	143	99¢	$142	0xb8e6db…
04-17 00:29:54	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x1d9d17…
04-16 18:38:12	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3da4b7…
04-16 13:13:36	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x571468…
04-15 19:45:02	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x1ba41d…
04-15 11:25:38	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x0811db…
04-15 11:24:52	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$994	0xd3fe63…
04-14 18:55:18	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xbebe8b…
04-13 17:15:11	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	90	99¢	$89	0x3c1076…
04-13 14:29:25	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x590224…
04-13 07:41:41	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x4407ed…
04-12 17:56:57	new stranger things episode released by april 30	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xb33b8d…
04-12 13:29:47	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	736	94¢	$695	0x7a9922…
04-12 12:56:21	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x672bd1…
04-12 12:23:09	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x79e820…
04-12 12:12:31	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xdfafc3…
04-12 11:58:37	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xb32c60…
04-12 11:38:47	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x723143…
04-12 11:28:31	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x833e06…
04-12 11:16:41	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x2907ba…
04-12 11:14:59	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	39	94¢	$37	0xdbd6c3…