Little-Soliloquy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.26K

Unrealized P&L

-$51

Hit rate

97.6%

Resolved

Trades

586

lifetime

Volume

$184.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$314

Open exposure

$3.24K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 11-01 09:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Politics

54% 95% +$641

Other

39% 88% +$538

Crypto

3% 88% +$60

Sports

2% 100% +$4

Tech

1% 100% +$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	+1,825	$1,754	96¢	$1.8K	$0	11-01 09:24
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+597	$585	98¢	$586	+$1	10-05 05:10
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$420	52¢	$525	+$105	10-08 07:50
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+1,000	$520	36¢	$365	-$155	10-05 06:33
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+605	$8	1¢	$6	-$2	10-06 19:01
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	+8	$1	12¢	$1	$0	11-01 07:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US strike Iran next?	29	$28.7K	16,480	12,794	+3,686	No	+$206	03-01 23:56
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	128	$24.5K	14,908	14,908	+0	No	+$105	06-10 18:15
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	40	$18.8K	11,000	10,803	+197	No	+$64	03-07 12:55
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	63	$13.4K	10,932	7,232	+3,700	Yes	+$186	07-01 18:04
new stranger things episode released by april 30	25	$6.7K	4,204	2,525	+1,679	No	+$16	04-30 20:19
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$5.0K	5,008	0	+5,008	No	+$19	06-03 23:30
netanyahu out by march 31 854	5	$3.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$54	03-19 19:44
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	31	$3.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$5	04-21 16:34
will there be at least 650 measles cases in the us by january 31 2026	9	$3.8K	2,887	1,557	+1,330	No	+$18	01-30 17:53
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	1	$3.7K	3,722	0	+3,722	Yes	+$22	07-20 13:22
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	39	$3.6K	3,600	0	+3,600	No	+$7	06-28 20:27
Trump out as President by September 30?	3	$3.6K	3,590	0	+3,590	No	+$11	09-22 12:19
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	22	$3.4K	1,610	1,938	-328	No	-$12	04-07 16:09
will there be 15 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750575	1	$3.0K	3,043	0	+3,043	No	+$3	07-18 10:27
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	1	$3.0K	2,998	0	+2,998	Yes	+$9	03-11 11:59
will company b be accused of insider trading	30	$2.9K	2,311	2,311	+0	No	+$95	02-23 22:22
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	1	$2.9K	2,900	0	+2,900	No	+$3	03-04 18:38
Will the US strike Iran next?	2	$2.6K	2,570	0	+2,570	No	+$9	02-11 22:23
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	1	$2.5K	2,555	0	+2,555	No	+$8	02-07 14:44
Will the US strike Iran next?	6	$2.5K	2,550	0	+2,550	No	+$47	02-04 17:56
will melania say career during ai talk on friday	1	$2.4K	2,416	0	+2,416	No	+$2	01-20 14:47
Will the US strike Iran next?	1	$2.4K	2,450	0	+2,450	No	+$37	01-27 18:37
earnings mentions netflix 2026 01 20 warner bros 1 times	1	$2.4K	2,400	0	+2,400	Yes	+$2	01-22 17:54
us strike on somalia by january 31 956	9	$2.3K	4,415	2,085	+2,330	Yes	+$9	01-26 23:07
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	5	$2.2K	1,500	990	+510	No	+$105	03-09 15:12
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$2.0K	2,004	0	+2,004	Yes	+$4	05-03 08:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	5	$2.0K	1,990	0	+1,990	Yes	+$36	06-04 01:30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	9	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$82	05-26 20:09
Iran Nuke before 2027?	9	$1.8K	1,825	0	+1,825	open	—	11-01 09:24
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	15	$1.6K	2,000	1,000	+1,000	open	—	10-08 07:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 09:24:34	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe0fa4c…
11-01 08:45:21	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x2e55b6…
11-01 08:09:42	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xb14b60…
11-01 07:59:36	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x3a9652…
11-01 07:57:36	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xac4987…
11-01 07:49:16	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x93c919…
11-01 07:41:54	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe3cd8a…
11-01 07:30:39	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	1,237	96¢	$1,186	0x5d5ba7…
11-01 07:23:48	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xec9c6c…
10-23 18:49:21	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	108	95¢	$102	0x574dee…
10-09 00:11:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No	BUY	521	99¢	$515	0xf4a60d…
10-09 00:11:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No	BUY	824	99¢	$814	0x58a081…
10-08 23:37:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No	BUY	155	99¢	$153	0x75e379…
10-08 07:57:15	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	518	96¢	$500	0x3fee47…
10-08 07:50:06	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	42¢	$420	0x0d8fe1…
10-07 20:47:51	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	388	58¢	$225	0x29a48a…
10-07 16:03:13	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	6	61¢	$3	0x57e61e…
10-07 15:55:05	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x194068…
10-07 15:43:40	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	193	61¢	$118	0x1ab10c…
10-07 14:05:01	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	1	61¢	$1	0x7bee46…
10-07 14:00:11	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	92	61¢	$56	0x367807…
10-07 13:46:58	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	73	61¢	$45	0xa61413…
10-06 19:01:05	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	605	1¢	$8	0xca18aa…
10-06 13:45:43	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	8	61¢	$5	0x45f3cd…
10-06 12:54:24	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	122	61¢	$74	0xbba505…
10-06 12:47:13	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0xb9ff36…
10-06 09:25:52	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	16	61¢	$10	0x818c2d…
10-06 09:06:28	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0xc72a9f…
10-05 23:31:55	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	88	61¢	$54	0xe9cf7c…
10-05 06:33:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	61¢	$610	0xed3004…
10-05 06:33:29	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	52¢	$520	0x25c622…
10-05 05:10:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	190	98¢	$186	0x32c74b…
10-05 01:30:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x9672a4…
10-04 04:59:53	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$10	0x0ae20c…
10-04 02:52:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	923	53¢	$489	0x8ac52a…
10-04 01:58:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	98¢	$392	0x8e3082…
10-04 01:53:02	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x4586e4…
10-04 01:52:29	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xb98611…
10-04 00:00:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	53¢	$25	0xddea9a…
10-03 13:21:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	617	53¢	$327	0xed67e7…
10-03 13:19:11	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	383	53¢	$203	0x132137…
09-22 12:19:58	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	3,588	100¢	$3,577	0x53ce77…
09-22 10:30:21	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaa2a84…
09-22 10:25:03	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbe2927…
09-21 11:41:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	166	63¢	$104	0x89e79c…
09-18 19:38:37	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x89bb4a…
09-18 19:36:13	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	116	97¢	$113	0x639e88…
09-05 05:18:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 255 857	Yes	BUY	166	60¢	$100	0x82e541…
09-05 05:10:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x41ab73…
08-26 12:25:31	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	108	86¢	$93	0x639a5a…
07-20 13:22:16	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	3,722	99¢	$3,700	0x72e863…
07-18 18:48:15	will there be 20 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750576	No	BUY	425	100¢	$424	0x104af7…
07-18 10:27:16	will there be 15 missed penalties during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610205750575	No	BUY	3,043	100¢	$3,040	0xb0063e…
07-01 18:04:20	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,700	100¢	$3,696	0xff4bf6…
06-28 20:27:10	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,820	100¢	$1,816	0x3df74b…
06-28 19:48:49	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x31c723…
06-28 15:01:52	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7bd3dc…
06-28 14:14:44	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x1d9d98…
06-28 14:14:32	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfd101a…
06-28 14:04:16	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x62fb66…
06-28 13:19:55	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x3ec2b1…
06-28 12:42:01	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x97eeba…
06-28 10:59:20	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x073c85…
06-28 10:31:59	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x0a8165…
06-28 09:29:32	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x84527b…
06-28 09:27:44	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x57aace…
06-28 09:26:22	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0xdd0a7b…
06-28 08:50:05	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x764bdd…
06-28 08:29:11	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2c9d27…
06-28 08:12:50	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x87a6c7…
06-28 07:08:43	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x458bef…
06-28 06:59:59	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd62fd8…
06-28 06:57:49	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe369b9…
06-28 06:20:50	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x0d31e3…
06-28 04:35:07	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x8860bd…
06-28 04:18:17	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0af2d5…
06-28 03:26:07	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x17070b…
06-28 03:18:04	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xde64c2…
06-28 02:27:28	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0x609555…
06-28 02:08:43	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x244321…
06-28 02:05:02	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xe5d043…
06-28 01:18:49	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xd33f2b…
06-28 01:13:37	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x404a4d…
06-28 01:11:50	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x88b767…
06-28 00:14:58	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8ab0dc…
06-27 22:49:37	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x8e3a84…
06-27 22:49:19	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xda838b…
06-27 21:51:28	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5d5cda…
06-27 21:39:59	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xb7c7be…
06-27 21:33:46	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x354c87…
06-27 21:29:46	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xb65f9e…
06-27 20:49:14	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3c5e47…
06-27 20:23:59	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1a75f5…
06-16 08:12:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,600	97¢	$1,558	0x024053…
06-15 17:53:16	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	SELL	22	17¢	$4	0x033f10…
06-15 09:37:13	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xb0f9b3…
06-14 17:34:07	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,500	99¢	$1,482	0xf28445…
06-11 17:43:12	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,412	97¢	$1,373	0x28cbfd…
06-11 17:41:12	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x6d6944…
06-11 17:38:39	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0xb90ef1…