Buoyant-Compromise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.10K

Unrealized P&L

+$639

Hit rate

60.7%

Resolved

126

Trades

444

lifetime

Volume

$26.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

$4.85K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-13 04:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Politics

63% 32% -$2,483

Other

27% 63% +$2,171

Sports

7% 45% +$1,599

Crypto

2% 40% -$192

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	+4,000	$2,520	100¢	$4.0K	+$1,472	11-04 01:07
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?	No	+9,383	$1,407	8¢	$798	-$610	11-13 04:29
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-295	-$40	9¢	$-27	+$13	07-10 09:44
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-227	-$43	10¢	$-23	+$20	08-04 03:11
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?	Yes	+400	$212	2¢	$7	-$205	11-04 03:56
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?	No	+180	$54	2¢	$3	-$51	11-04 05:10
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-116	-$1	2¢	$-2	-$1	07-10 04:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	15	$2.8K	2,188	1,238	+950	Yes	+$627	05-06 01:20
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	11	$2.5K	2,500	2,500	+0	Yes	-$1,173	11-04 05:31
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	2	$2.5K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	11-04 01:07
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	45	$2.1K	2,643	2,643	+0	No	+$38	08-05 19:29
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?	1	$1.4K	9,383	0	+9,383	open	—	11-13 04:29
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	4	$1.0K	1,357	0	+1,357	Yes	+$342	05-15 02:01
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	7	$623	0	1,000	-1,000	Yes	-$377	03-04 03:51
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$556	2,500	0	+2,500	Yes	+$1,444	07-14 20:35
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	1	$510	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$490	09-02 00:23
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	6	$492	300	300	+0	No	+$90	06-11 04:34
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	1	$445	487	0	+487	Jannik Sinner	+$41	05-16 05:31
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	2	$423	481	481	+0	Yes	+$29	05-13 13:20
will trump say maga or make america great again during the 2026 state of the union address 742	4	$417	315	192	+123	No	-$141	02-25 03:11
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	10	$414	2,224	2,224	+0	No	-$329	11-04 02:51
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?	4	$409	700	0	+700	Yes	+$291	05-19 07:27
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	12	$407	683	0	+683	No	+$276	05-14 03:02
Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?	8	$400	3,039	0	+3,039	resolved	-$400	08-21 10:13
Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	16	$400	3,774	0	+3,774	resolved	-$400	09-22 22:24
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	9	$384	622	622	+0	No	-$100	06-03 02:49
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$370	238	238	+0	No	+$41	03-16 23:44
Blue wave in 2026?	8	$355	450	0	+450	Yes	+$95	09-25 13:50
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	2	$270	200	200	+0	Yes	+$130	05-03 23:45
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	7	$260	177	177	+0	Yes	-$7	05-16 05:24
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	7	$242	250	30	+220	No	+$28	05-16 22:42
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	1	$230	730	0	+730	Yes	+$500	07-15 07:08
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$227	497	497	+0	Yes	-$68	04-14 02:37
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	3	$212	200	200	+0	Yes	+$54	07-10 10:32
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?	4	$212	400	0	+400	open	—	11-04 03:56
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	5	$206	500	0	+500	Yes	+$294	08-12 02:45
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	1	$205	250	0	+250	No	+$45	06-11 04:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 04:29:06	Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?	No	BUY	9,383	15¢	$1,407	0x81d6de…
11-04 05:31:12	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	1,000	0¢	$2	0x347a52…
11-04 05:30:36	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	1¢	$1	0x43f4ea…
11-04 05:10:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?	No	BUY	180	30¢	$54	0xec607c…
11-04 03:56:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?	Yes	BUY	67	53¢	$36	0x7449bd…
11-04 03:56:07	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?	Yes	BUY	27	53¢	$14	0x9e35c4…
11-04 03:56:04	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?	Yes	BUY	118	53¢	$63	0x72228f…
11-04 03:56:00	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?	Yes	BUY	188	53¢	$100	0x59e526…
11-04 02:51:00	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	74	2¢	$1	0x9db77f…
11-04 02:50:49	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,462	2¢	$28	0xc36720…
11-04 02:38:00	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	688	2¢	$13	0x1fa872…
11-04 01:40:36	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	800	0¢	$3	0x2d24fb…
11-04 01:40:15	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	989	0¢	$4	0xaaacb8…
11-04 01:33:21	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	119	68¢	$81	0x2fb927…
11-04 01:07:15	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	3,000	63¢	$1,890	0xdb34a1…
11-04 00:55:15	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	1,000	63¢	$630	0x2cb661…
11-04 00:48:33	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	11	8¢	$1	0xa5b034…
11-03 07:46:39	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	1,500	45¢	$675	0x04be5e…
11-02 04:17:09	Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	1,199	8¢	$100	0xd1b280…
10-31 00:41:39	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	673	15¢	$100	0xa937ce…
10-31 00:41:12	Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	4,891	4¢	$200	0xe2c7a8…
10-05 18:31:34	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xa0827a…
10-05 18:31:32	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	32	14¢	$4	0x7aeb5d…
10-01 22:31:39	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	142	14¢	$20	0xf92d01…
09-25 13:50:38	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0xbdd631…
09-25 13:50:36	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xd3d9f5…
09-24 11:50:51	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,378	17¢	$234	0x9a6a13…
09-22 22:24:13	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,872	11¢	$198	0xf9353b…
09-22 22:24:13	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$21	0x1a03a0…
09-22 20:50:50	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$21	0x261234…
09-22 20:48:21	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	11¢	$53	0x5df463…
09-22 13:26:25	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	11¢	$17	0x5db0b1…
09-21 15:13:58	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$21	0xeb15f6…
09-21 10:50:53	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x7b84bc…
09-21 05:10:45	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x26f001…
09-20 23:02:46	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	140	17¢	$24	0x446938…
09-20 04:08:46	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	475	17¢	$81	0x76eb93…
09-19 22:11:32	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$21	0xc9431a…
09-19 04:46:04	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	11¢	$21	0xf6fb31…
09-18 20:22:58	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	11¢	$5	0x69e65e…
09-18 13:04:33	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xb1e55d…
09-16 03:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xfe56a2…
09-15 19:08:49	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	11¢	$6	0x62469c…
09-12 19:39:09	Spread: Oklahoma (-4.5)	Oklahoma	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0x94f3ae…
09-12 18:36:04	Spread: Oklahoma (-4.5)	Oklahoma	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0xcc4a4c…
09-09 18:49:07	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	11¢	$0	0x5b1d0c…
09-08 04:30:13	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$5	0x9c481b…
09-06 18:30:31	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	11¢	$4	0xf61007…
09-06 03:05:37	Will Michigan have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x18a286…
09-02 00:23:52	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	51¢	$510	0xd8664b…
08-28 17:00:16	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	79¢	$115	0x02347f…
08-27 15:25:40	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0xa031d4…
08-27 11:42:07	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	79¢	$17	0xf93102…
08-27 11:41:52	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x8ec25a…
08-21 10:13:33	Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	529	13¢	$69	0x889861…
08-21 05:11:25	Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	13¢	$33	0x326512…
08-21 00:03:00	Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	499	13¢	$65	0x10878c…
08-20 20:56:12	Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	13¢	$3	0x16d3f4…
08-20 19:54:37	Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	891	13¢	$117	0x1eee9a…
08-20 13:05:42	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x8efe44…
08-20 04:17:49	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	72¢	$9	0xe7168b…
08-20 03:50:27	Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	779	13¢	$104	0x96c60d…
08-19 20:20:30	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	752	13¢	$98	0x6ff4b2…
08-19 19:07:39	Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xc7ceec…
08-18 07:49:10	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x5c53d7…
08-18 07:06:57	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xb5af80…
08-18 06:48:13	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x2af864…
08-18 06:43:06	Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x9c1bce…
08-18 04:19:52	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	22	13¢	$3	0x4131b2…
08-18 03:15:54	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	970	74¢	$718	0xedd163…
08-18 00:12:10	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x715915…
08-17 21:27:18	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	600	74¢	$444	0xc4c2b4…
08-17 20:15:54	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0x6fcb79…
08-17 12:59:22	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x35a469…
08-17 01:44:03	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	769	74¢	$569	0x8e3940…
08-16 18:35:06	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	77	74¢	$57	0x03c26f…
08-15 20:25:09	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0xc4c806…
08-15 19:30:36	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	58	74¢	$43	0xa598af…
08-15 08:10:31	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x578db0…
08-14 01:08:13	Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	Yes	SELL	300	8¢	$23	0x6a28d2…
08-13 10:50:49	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	21	13¢	$3	0x67ea11…
08-13 10:50:30	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	979	13¢	$127	0xe3e9cb…
08-13 10:21:16	Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	Yes	BUY	95	40¢	$38	0xa04dbb…
08-13 10:21:16	Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	Yes	BUY	205	40¢	$82	0x4e22df…
08-12 02:45:36	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	80	41¢	$33	0xb8ae50…
08-12 02:45:36	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	32	41¢	$13	0x7c9d35…
08-12 02:45:12	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x853b20…
08-12 02:45:10	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	371	41¢	$152	0xa86f72…
08-12 02:45:09	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x53167c…
08-05 19:29:45	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	2,477	41¢	$1,015	0x90b06f…
08-05 11:54:09	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xcd36df…
08-05 11:54:06	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x2aa6ef…
08-05 09:50:09	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	18	41¢	$7	0xa5730c…
08-05 09:14:21	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	16	41¢	$7	0xf5302b…
08-05 07:05:36	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0x41880a…
08-05 00:45:35	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	4	41¢	$2	0x89e208…
08-05 00:15:38	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	116	41¢	$47	0xe65c03…
08-04 03:12:14	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	65¢	$10	0x9e196c…
08-04 03:11:54	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	227	19¢	$43	0x8704f0…
08-04 03:01:50	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	65¢	$10	0xb12382…