Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$148

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

71.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.12K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$314

4 positions

First seen

2026-10-09

last 11-04 22:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

65% 78% -$149

Other

35% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	+228	$202	92¢	$211	+$9	11-04 16:39
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+61	$58	97¢	$59	+$1	10-30 17:32
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+48	$28	56¢	$27	-$1	11-04 04:29
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	+18	$17	90¢	$16	-$1	11-04 22:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	10	$272	158	138	+20	Yes	+$2	10-29 20:42
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	3	$202	228	0	+228	open	—	11-04 16:39
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$202	227	20	+207	No	-$178	10-25 22:06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	5	$128	80	56	+24	Yes	+$1	10-26 03:41
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	8	$75	111	0	+111	Yes	+$35	10-30 13:57
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	4	$60	67	0	+67	Yes	+$7	10-27 20:46
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	4	$58	61	0	+61	open	—	10-30 17:32
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	2	$31	54	0	+54	No	-$31	10-25 20:25
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	3	$28	48	0	+48	open	—	11-04 04:29
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	1	$18	19	0	+19	Yes	+$1	10-16 15:36
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$17	18	0	+18	open	—	11-04 22:50
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$13	14	0	+14	No	+$1	10-29 20:42
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	1	$10	17	0	+17	No	+$7	10-09 05:19
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	1	$8	13	0	+13	Yes	+$5	10-09 15:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 22:50:52	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x682b9e…
11-04 16:39:39	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	BUY	79	93¢	$73	0x663720…
11-04 04:29:58	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	22	60¢	$13	0xcfbb52…
10-30 17:32:28	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$12	0xd6883c…
10-30 13:57:52	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xaa4e98…
10-30 09:52:57	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	18	70¢	$12	0x671a5f…
10-30 07:03:21	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0x73fd33…
10-30 03:19:55	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	14	68¢	$9	0x233ae6…
10-29 20:42:51	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	14	94¢	$13	0xd7dcd7…
10-29 20:42:24	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	76	92¢	$70	0xb2f6b6…
10-29 15:08:19	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	52	92¢	$48	0xc65992…
10-29 14:59:11	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x582df4…
10-29 11:33:11	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	14	67¢	$9	0x799ecd…
10-29 09:42:01	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	11	67¢	$8	0xfa51b8…
10-29 05:19:29	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x37ba33…
10-29 03:10:07	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	11	67¢	$8	0x51939c…
10-29 02:56:59	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x7d9676…
10-29 00:42:11	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xc022c7…
10-27 23:27:02	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0xe2fb6d…
10-27 20:46:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	15	95¢	$15	0x332fdb…
10-27 11:39:09	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x576af7…
10-26 17:26:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	21	92¢	$20	0xe3c4ae…
10-26 03:50:50	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0xd7220c…
10-26 03:41:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	56	93¢	$52	0x8fa8f4…
10-26 03:40:42	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x98ffb1…
10-25 22:06:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	56¢	$6	0xeed752…
10-25 21:53:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0x0f7d5b…
10-25 21:41:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	95¢	$16	0x00da94…
10-25 20:25:18	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	13	50¢	$7	0xc72df2…
10-25 17:53:24	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	41	58¢	$24	0xd7e9d4…
10-25 12:03:57	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	16	56¢	$9	0xf86b10…
10-24 12:31:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	27	95¢	$26	0x8d785a…
10-23 13:21:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x97d4b6…
10-23 12:27:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x3e48f0…
10-23 03:28:09	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0xf72fc1…
10-21 17:54:11	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0xbfd3a1…
10-18 08:53:39	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$11	0xa1339f…
10-16 15:36:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0xd8aca6…
10-15 21:51:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	84	77¢	$65	0x542948…
10-15 01:18:23	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	78	91¢	$71	0x0c40b3…
10-14 01:13:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	87¢	$11	0xd77b49…
10-10 23:32:28	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x1f2127…
10-10 11:12:03	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	BUY	75	86¢	$64	0x2a1aa3…
10-09 17:35:43	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	143	87¢	$125	0x4f1a38…
10-09 15:13:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0x814100…
10-09 15:00:28	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	13	60¢	$8	0xe06121…
10-09 05:19:47	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x6da1ca…