Probable-Wedding — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

68.0%

Resolved

140

Trades

520

lifetime

Volume

$1.02K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-19

last 11-03 15:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Crypto

78% 54% -$11

Other

12% 57% -$7

Politics

10% 67% +$12

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		-3	-$1	12¢	$-0	+$0	05-08 18:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	3	$36	31	16	+15	Yes	+$6	06-21 20:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 18:30 UTC	9	$32	35	33	+1	Down	+$1	04-22 18:33
Will England win on 2026-07-15?	4	$31	28	28	+0	No	+$11	07-15 20:47
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$27	32	32	+0	No	-$2	06-21 20:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 11:40 UTC	10	$25	25	24	+1	Down	+$1	04-20 11:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	5	$25	41	16	+25	Up	+$2	04-25 15:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 19:55 UTC	7	$25	22	20	+1	Down	+$12	04-22 19:59
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 20:25 UTC	4	$22	12	12	+0	Up	+$0	04-19 20:30
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 20:20 UTC	5	$20	26	24	+1	Down	+$2	04-19 20:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 21:35 UTC	9	$20	21	15	+6	Up	$0	04-20 21:40
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 19:50 UTC	8	$18	15	12	+3	Up	+$0	04-19 19:55
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 20:40 UTC	6	$16	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	04-19 20:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 11:35 UTC	6	$16	10	10	+0	Up	+$0	04-20 11:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 19:50 UTC	5	$15	12	11	+1	Up	+$2	04-22 19:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	7	$15	20	17	+4	Up	+$5	11-03 15:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 21:20 UTC	5	$15	9	9	+0	Up	+$1	04-20 21:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 12:45 UTC	9	$15	17	15	+2	Down	+$1	04-21 12:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 11:30 UTC	7	$14	29	22	+8	Up	+$3	04-20 11:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 19:25 UTC	6	$14	14	13	+0	Up	+$0	04-19 19:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 21:15 UTC	7	$14	18	6	+12	Down	-$2	04-20 21:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 18:10 UTC	5	$14	18	13	+5	Up	+$4	04-22 18:12
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 20:10 UTC	10	$14	18	15	+3	Up	+$2	04-19 20:14
Spread: Feyenoord Rotterdam (-1.5)	2	$13	8	8	+0	ADO Den Haag	+$2	08-30 13:49
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-19 19:55 UTC	6	$13	23	13	+10	Up	-$1	04-19 19:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 18:15 UTC	6	$12	17	9	+8	Up	-$4	04-22 18:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-22 18:05 UTC	6	$12	19	13	+6	Up	-$3	04-22 18:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 21:05 UTC	8	$12	37	10	+27	Down	+$1	04-20 21:08
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	5	$12	8	8	+0	No	+$4	04-22 05:17
Silkeborg IF vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 3.5	5	$12	15	15	+0	Under	-$2	08-30 13:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	10	$11	10	10	+0	Up	+$1	11-03 15:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 15:47:18	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 3?	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x3f39b7…
11-03 15:46:28	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 3?	Up	SELL	9	62¢	$5	0x316338…
11-03 15:46:04	Bitcoin Up or Down on November 3?	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xb0ed70…
11-03 15:41:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x56550d…
11-03 15:40:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x8dc0d7…
11-03 15:39:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	79¢	$1	0x06def0…
11-03 15:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x862a24…
11-03 15:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	3	52¢	$2	0xd81324…
11-03 15:38:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xc7109b…
11-03 15:37:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x6ef1bc…
11-03 15:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x14fdb2…
11-03 15:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x1a151a…
11-03 15:36:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa5cf27…
11-03 15:36:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x0e26cc…
11-03 15:35:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x104ac6…
11-03 15:34:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xe38056…
11-03 15:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	SELL	13	68¢	$9	0xc39344…
11-03 15:33:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xbbf55c…
11-03 15:32:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x8775a4…
11-03 15:32:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x5f6106…
11-03 15:31:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xf21539…
11-03 15:31:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x9811f9…
11-03 15:29:54	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3	54¢	$1	0x6e2aa0…
10-27 15:07:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0x5b1d03…
10-27 15:06:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x728189…
10-27 15:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x20c3eb…
10-27 15:06:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xc90156…
10-27 15:05:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x179ae1…
10-27 15:03:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	156	1¢	$1	0x8d7a8f…
10-27 15:01:56	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xeba6c3…
08-30 14:56:37	bitcoin up or down on august 30 2026	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x16a14c…
08-30 14:14:39	Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x72b673…
08-30 14:09:33	Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xbb5638…
08-30 13:50:21	Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)	Rosenborg BK	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x7dd6cf…
08-30 13:50:18	Will ADO Den Haag win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	BUY	9	61¢	$5	0x615a59…
08-30 13:49:52	Will ADO Den Haag win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0xf477d0…
08-30 13:49:36	Spread: Feyenoord Rotterdam (-1.5)	ADO Den Haag	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0xa67a7b…
08-30 13:49:36	Spread: Feyenoord Rotterdam (-2.5)	ADO Den Haag	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x1593cc…
08-30 13:40:31	Silkeborg IF vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0xc5bc53…
08-30 13:40:31	Silkeborg IF vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 3.5	Under	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x6cbb98…
08-30 13:38:19	Silkeborg IF vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x0ebcc0…
08-30 13:37:55	Silkeborg IF vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 3.5	Over	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x93924a…
08-30 13:28:28	Silkeborg IF vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x38a17c…
08-30 13:24:54	Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x040fbf…
08-30 13:13:09	Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x1db826…
08-30 13:10:36	Spread: Feyenoord Rotterdam (-2.5)	ADO Den Haag	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x9bac4e…
08-30 13:09:37	Spread: Feyenoord Rotterdam (-1.5)	ADO Den Haag	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0xef083a…
08-30 13:09:04	Chelsea FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Under	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x9fa031…
08-30 13:02:45	bitcoin up or down on august 30 2026	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc44e18…
07-15 20:49:47	Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0xecf478…
07-15 20:48:11	Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x9ee5cb…
07-15 20:47:22	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	No	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0x3c90d7…
07-15 20:18:20	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	No	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x86fab1…
07-15 20:16:50	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	SELL	14	65¢	$9	0xbc408a…
07-15 18:59:50	Will England win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x2ec68e…
06-21 20:37:13	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0xb31ea6…
06-21 20:36:29	Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	32	40¢	$13	0x6b057c…
06-20 13:41:47	Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	32	45¢	$14	0x408f1f…
06-11 10:18:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0x224179…
06-11 10:18:55	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	16	86¢	$13	0x0e277d…
05-27 08:55:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xe113e8…
05-27 08:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x7276d3…
05-27 08:55:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xaab018…
05-27 08:55:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x7242bd…
05-25 10:43:25	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x87700c…
05-25 10:38:50	Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0xb495a6…
05-25 10:38:38	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x0a44af…
05-25 10:38:29	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xa2110f…
05-25 10:38:12	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0xc661db…
05-25 10:37:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x87d1a3…
05-25 10:37:47	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xb00d90…
05-25 10:37:44	Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4f30ae…
05-08 19:39:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x28fd3a…
05-08 18:53:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xe18cd6…
05-08 18:52:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	21¢	$1	0xa81220…
05-06 19:26:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xce7899…
05-06 19:26:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	85¢	$1	0x679942…
05-06 19:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x86a6b2…
05-06 19:25:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0x02c977…
05-04 18:43:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xd4305e…
05-04 18:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x67ccd3…
05-04 18:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x91a2a7…
05-04 18:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x0b6670…
05-04 18:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xe3a390…
05-04 18:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x98022b…
05-04 18:36:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xc2e18e…
05-04 18:35:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x2ac0b5…
05-04 18:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x38c5d0…
05-04 18:34:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x2791ac…
05-04 18:34:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x4cdafa…
05-04 18:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x57c1d5…
05-04 18:32:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xfca420…
05-02 08:06:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8bf59e…
05-02 08:05:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x50c13c…
05-02 08:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x061581…
05-02 08:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xf9a546…
04-30 23:53:50	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd25234…
04-30 23:44:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc74df9…
04-30 23:41:08	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x563b91…
04-30 15:31:00	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x90917a…