Probable-Wedding — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

446

lifetime

Volume

$772

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-19

last 06-11 10:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 0% $-1

Politics

4% 0% $-1

Other

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 186 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1776882600	9	$32	35	33	+1	open	—	04-22 18:33
btc updown 5m 1776685200	10	$25	25	24	+1	open	—	04-20 11:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	5	$25	41	16	+25	open	—	04-25 15:14
btc updown 5m 1776887700	7	$25	22	20	+1	open	—	04-22 19:59
sol updown 5m 1776630300	4	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	04-19 20:30
sol updown 5m 1776630000	5	$20	26	24	+1	open	—	04-19 20:24
btc updown 5m 1776720900	9	$20	21	15	+6	open	—	04-20 21:40
eth updown 5m 1776628200	8	$18	15	12	+3	open	—	04-19 19:55
xrp updown 5m 1776631200	6	$16	10	10	+0	open	—	04-19 20:42
btc updown 5m 1776684900	6	$16	10	10	+0	open	—	04-20 11:39
btc updown 5m 1776887400	5	$15	12	11	+1	open	—	04-22 19:54
btc updown 5m 1776720000	5	$15	9	9	+0	open	—	04-20 21:23
btc updown 5m 1776775500	9	$15	17	15	+2	open	—	04-21 12:49
btc updown 5m 1776684600	7	$14	29	22	+8	open	—	04-20 11:33
btc updown 5m 1776626700	6	$14	14	13	+0	open	—	04-19 19:28
btc updown 5m 1776719700	7	$14	18	6	+12	open	—	04-20 21:18
btc updown 5m 1776881400	5	$14	18	13	+5	open	—	04-22 18:12
sol updown 5m 1776629400	10	$14	18	15	+3	open	—	04-19 20:14
eth updown 5m 1776628500	6	$13	23	13	+10	open	—	04-19 19:58
btc updown 5m 1776881700	6	$12	17	9	+8	open	—	04-22 18:18
btc updown 5m 1776881100	6	$12	19	13	+6	open	—	04-22 18:09
btc updown 5m 1776719100	8	$12	37	10	+27	open	—	04-20 21:08
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	5	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	04-22 05:17
btc updown 5m 1776666000	4	$11	8	8	+0	open	—	04-20 06:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	8	$10	15	7	+9	open	—	04-25 16:00
btc updown 5m 1776624600	10	$10	9	9	+0	open	—	04-19 18:55
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	4	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	04-23 14:05
btc updown 5m 1776626400	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	04-19 19:24
btc updown 5m 1776621600	6	$10	14	13	+1	open	—	04-19 18:04
btc updown 5m 1776630600	5	$9	7	2	+5	open	—	04-19 20:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 10:18:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0x224179…
05-25 10:38:12	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	2	74¢	$1	0xc661db…
05-25 10:37:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x87d1a3…
05-06 19:26:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xce7899…
05-06 19:26:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	85¢	$1	0x679942…
05-06 19:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x86a6b2…
05-06 19:25:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0x02c977…
05-04 18:43:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xd4305e…
05-04 18:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x67ccd3…
05-04 18:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x91a2a7…
05-04 18:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x0b6670…
05-04 18:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xe3a390…
05-04 18:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x98022b…
05-04 18:36:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xc2e18e…
05-04 18:35:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x2ac0b5…
05-04 18:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x38c5d0…
05-04 18:34:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x2791ac…
05-04 18:34:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x4cdafa…
05-04 18:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x57c1d5…
05-04 18:32:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xfca420…
05-02 08:06:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8bf59e…
05-02 08:05:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x50c13c…
05-02 08:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x061581…
05-02 08:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xf9a546…
04-30 23:53:50	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd25234…
04-30 23:44:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc74df9…
04-28 16:32:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0xba0b05…
04-28 16:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x965c27…
04-28 16:29:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	92¢	$1	0x3af083…
04-28 16:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x7bc9b1…
04-26 19:08:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xbbc3b1…
04-26 19:08:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xa6361b…
04-25 17:32:10	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" today?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x447c58…
04-25 17:31:04	Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xcfe1aa…
04-25 17:28:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xd5e8f0…
04-25 17:20:32	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xf7c54a…
04-25 17:16:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x3a182e…
04-25 17:14:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x0cd9b9…
04-25 17:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x6b9828…
04-25 17:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x4a0e66…
04-25 17:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	SELL	3	68¢	$2	0x3bca92…
04-25 17:01:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x8fc3ae…
04-25 17:01:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0xcb05d3…
04-25 17:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x0b66d6…
04-25 17:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x8e7e82…
04-25 16:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xca90ab…
04-25 16:02:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xcf105c…
04-25 16:00:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x3c350e…
04-25 15:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x65db28…
04-25 15:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x1d2548…
04-25 15:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0xd8dd03…
04-25 15:56:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xb77712…
04-25 15:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xc6f2e1…
04-25 15:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0xa484c4…
04-25 15:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xc314f8…
04-25 15:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x97b51b…
04-25 15:51:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x97aea8…
04-25 15:51:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xa63914…
04-25 15:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x0e9a3f…
04-25 15:51:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x7a2084…
04-25 15:50:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0e9fac…
04-25 15:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x7aba11…
04-25 15:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x159744…
04-25 15:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xcd6390…
04-25 15:45:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x9ba1f6…
04-25 15:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x9dd497…
04-25 15:19:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xdddeb7…
04-25 15:17:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xc0c755…
04-25 15:14:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0x88e6ab…
04-25 15:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	SELL	13	91¢	$12	0x037067…
04-25 15:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x5106d0…
04-25 15:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0x00d008…
04-25 15:13:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xb009b4…
04-23 14:05:02	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xcd94f9…
04-22 20:07:42	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xa23208…
04-22 20:02:54	btc updown 5m 1776888000	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x2ba8b6…
04-22 20:02:10	btc updown 5m 1776888000	Up	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x13e27a…
04-22 20:01:34	btc updown 5m 1776888000	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x154451…
04-22 20:00:12	btc updown 5m 1776888000	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x719d19…
04-22 19:59:44	btc updown 5m 1776887700	Down	SELL	19	87¢	$17	0x3af8b7…
04-22 19:58:02	btc updown 5m 1776887700	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x0e3059…
04-22 19:57:18	btc updown 5m 1776887700	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x05104b…
04-22 19:57:02	btc updown 5m 1776887700	Up	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x6f729c…
04-22 19:56:56	btc updown 5m 1776887700	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x12cb4c…
04-22 19:56:06	btc updown 5m 1776887700	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x279a2b…
04-22 19:55:36	btc updown 5m 1776887700	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xf4f928…
04-22 19:54:56	btc updown 5m 1776887400	Up	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0xfcc8f5…
04-22 19:54:06	btc updown 5m 1776887400	Down	SELL	5	87¢	$5	0x37e95b…
04-22 19:53:04	btc updown 5m 1776887400	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x2214fa…
04-22 19:52:10	btc updown 5m 1776887400	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x609f7b…
04-22 19:50:14	btc updown 5m 1776887400	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xf6a68c…
04-22 19:49:50	btc updown 5m 1776887100	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe1115a…
04-22 18:33:48	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0xf6a6ae…
04-22 18:33:34	btc updown 5m 1776882600	Down	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0xfbca7e…
04-22 18:33:24	btc updown 5m 1776882600	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x5ef3f6…
04-22 18:33:12	btc updown 5m 1776882600	Down	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xb15b6e…
04-22 18:32:58	btc updown 5m 1776882600	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x58fdf7…
04-22 18:32:38	btc updown 5m 1776882600	Down	SELL	12	37¢	$5	0xd1f838…
04-22 18:32:04	btc updown 5m 1776882600	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x493661…
04-22 18:31:26	btc updown 5m 1776882600	Up	SELL	12	56¢	$7	0xcbad59…