Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$18

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

59.1%

Resolved (90d)

126

Trades (90d)

134

150 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$281

$324 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-07-22

last 11-03 16:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 58 days

Categories

Other

93% 54% -$8

Politics

6% 50% -$1

Tech

2% 50% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No		+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	11-01 15:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	2	$6	11	+11	Yes	+$2	09-17 10:54
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?	1	$4	7	+7	Yes	-$4	07-23 21:07
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	1	$4	5	+5	Yes	+$1	07-22 09:05
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	1	$4	16	+16	Yes	-$4	09-23 02:53
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	1	$4	8	+8	Yes	+$4	09-10 15:38
spy up or down on august 12 2026	1	$4	5	+5	Up	+$1	08-12 13:03
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$4	5	+5	Yes	-$4	09-21 18:49
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $127.50 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$4	7	+7	No	+$3	09-20 22:39
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?	1	$4	10	+10	Yes	-$4	08-26 16:03
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$4	7	+7	No	+$3	09-09 22:33
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in August?	1	$4	8	+8	No	-$4	09-02 05:28
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	1	$4	11	+11	No	-$4	09-17 19:02
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	1	$4	5	+5	Yes	-$4	09-01 18:51
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	1	$4	6	+6	No	+$2	09-20 04:50
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$4	5	+5	No	+$1	09-20 14:15
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on August 31, 2026?	1	$4	8	+8	No	-$4	08-21 18:25
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?	1	$4	15	+15	No	+$11	09-14 20:04
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$4	6	+6	No	+$2	09-13 11:25
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$4	9	+9	Yes	-$4	09-10 07:37
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$4	5	+5	No	+$1	08-12 21:08
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$4	14	+14	Yes	+$10	08-16 05:57
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?	1	$4	15	+15	No	-$4	07-24 21:08
Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	1	$4	11	+11	No	-$4	08-20 07:17
will wti reach 95 in august 2026	1	$4	5	+5	No	+$1	08-22 02:31
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$4	13	+13	Yes	+$9	08-23 18:40
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?	1	$4	8	+8	No	-$4	09-01 07:45
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?	1	$4	7	+7	No	+$3	08-29 10:33
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	1	$4	6	+6	No	+$2	08-26 07:59
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?	1	$4	13	+13	No	-$4	08-21 09:37
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on August 31, 2026?	1	$4	6	+6	No	+$2	08-23 06:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 16:59:49	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x22d7d0…
11-03 08:08:16	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x7fb913…
11-03 00:07:48	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xe5df34…
11-01 15:19:52	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x686599…
10-31 17:12:55	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x198031…
10-30 21:01:24	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xb3f02d…
10-29 11:50:10	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x1841c3…
10-29 03:24:04	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x092e85…
10-24 17:12:11	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x02f3e9…
10-24 07:44:20	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xa88fa7…
10-23 23:39:53	Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 46% to 48%?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x196dad…
10-23 15:37:42	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x6dace0…
10-21 19:10:57	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x4bbb48…
10-21 11:06:15	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xe4e32c…
10-21 11:05:33	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x611765…
10-21 03:04:53	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x60471e…
10-19 18:58:09	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x1451e1…
10-18 06:57:30	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xe9bbc7…
10-17 22:56:39	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xf11b44…
10-17 14:55:44	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x6ecc19…
10-17 05:13:08	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xfb120a…
10-16 18:08:50	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xd2fb77…
10-16 08:10:36	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x2251ce…
10-15 23:57:16	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xfa656b…
10-15 15:49:26	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 15?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x4367be…
10-15 07:48:41	spy up or down on october 15 2026	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xf7cab8…
10-13 23:04:49	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x7726a1…
10-13 15:02:46	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xaa885c…
10-13 07:00:28	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x6d04c0…
10-11 22:59:36	Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc56f8a…
10-11 14:51:49	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xd46f69…
10-11 06:51:32	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xb9e8e6…
10-10 22:13:19	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xf69197…
10-10 14:01:45	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x87bcb7…
10-10 03:53:51	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x25b28c…
10-09 19:23:14	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x114a8f…
10-09 19:22:47	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x8041fd…
10-09 11:21:03	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x6bf37c…
10-09 03:20:50	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xbcae13…
10-08 19:20:38	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x0f8a7e…
10-08 08:29:53	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x94b6d4…
10-08 08:29:47	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x8a36ca…
10-08 00:29:28	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x2a5f43…
10-08 00:27:32	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $532.50 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x778430…
10-07 16:26:16	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xf8f20b…
10-07 08:18:00	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xdae7c7…
10-07 08:17:59	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x3ec97f…
10-07 00:17:45	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x15ed5b…
10-06 16:17:29	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x240a39…
10-06 08:16:28	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x3e915b…
10-06 00:15:44	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x6636b2…
10-05 16:12:52	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xc607ea…
10-05 04:11:25	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x19783b…
10-04 20:11:10	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xd47a44…
10-04 11:07:56	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x14aec1…
10-04 02:32:07	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4a8a1b…
10-03 17:48:35	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf70764…
10-03 07:05:54	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x111a4b…
10-02 22:43:00	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xd95de4…
10-02 14:38:56	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x903d92…
10-02 06:04:17	spx up or down on october 2 2026	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x3df818…
10-01 16:40:06	spx up or down on october 1 2026	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x51467e…
10-01 08:39:08	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x955b39…
09-30 23:38:50	will xagusd reach 61 by september 28 2026 from september 30	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x263515…
09-30 15:36:54	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x13cc69…
09-30 06:01:15	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x8eb183…
09-29 21:59:05	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x51591e…
09-29 13:58:26	Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xa3e81f…
09-29 13:57:47	Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xdfd049…
09-29 04:56:39	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $112.50 Week of September 28 2026?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x406bec…
09-28 20:24:33	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x667e8e…
09-28 12:24:09	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xfa30f3…
09-28 04:23:39	will pltr reach 192 by september 28 2026	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x5464d6…
09-27 20:21:20	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x8ee9e9…
09-27 12:11:18	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xf768fc…
09-27 02:38:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x94fb7d…
09-27 02:17:12	Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x5582d4…
09-26 13:05:21	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xba80f2…
09-26 05:05:09	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd9f6c6…
09-24 19:14:14	Trump renames AI by September 30?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xe8d654…
09-24 10:54:45	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xb9342b…
09-23 10:54:10	will xagusd reach 68 by september 21 2026	No	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0xb07237…
09-23 02:53:49	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	No	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0xe1a3fb…
09-21 18:49:58	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x284fca…
09-20 22:39:47	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $127.50 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x85ad8f…
09-20 14:15:22	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x503865…
09-20 04:50:42	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x999271…
09-19 20:43:20	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x2375c2…
09-19 11:16:32	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x463f35…
09-19 03:16:16	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x03a1b2…
09-17 19:02:37	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	Yes	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0xf43283…
09-17 10:54:37	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x9dfdb7…
09-17 10:48:45	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x218cf1…
09-17 00:48:57	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x2e0eb1…
09-16 04:06:06	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026?	No	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x2dcca6…
09-14 20:04:42	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?	No	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0xba8c1c…
09-13 11:25:39	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x6e8309…
09-13 02:13:00	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x4e0ae7…
09-10 15:38:12	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x7dcef5…
09-10 07:37:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x7cc906…