Crazy-Bicycle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$810

Unrealized P&L

-$51

Hit rate

45.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$8.80K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$93

Open exposure

$151

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 07-06 20:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Politics

52% 33% -$516

Other

29% 14% -$816

Sports

19% 37% +$536

Crypto

0% 100% +$6

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$20

Tech

0% 0% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-06).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+300	$102	41¢	$123	+$21	06-02 22:01
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes		+435	$100	6¢	$28	-$72	05-14 05:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$1.5K	0	1,471	-1,471	No	-$1	07-06 20:21
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	4	$1.0K	1,117	546	+571	No	+$290	04-23 15:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$1.0K	1,502	0	+1,502	No	+$378	04-28 15:08
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	2	$701	1,505	0	+1,505	Yes	-$701	04-30 13:17
will david bailey be the second pick in the 2026 nfl draft	2	$700	1,359	0	+1,359	Yes	+$659	04-23 05:36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	3	$670	471	471	+0	No	+$268	05-01 02:39
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	1	$300	1,111	0	+1,111	Yes	-$300	06-03 03:48
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	1	$200	645	0	+645	No	-$200	06-08 00:41
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$200	1,786	0	+1,786	No	-$200	06-07 18:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	1	$200	571	0	+571	No	-$200	05-06 05:35
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Oilers	1	$150	580	0	+580	Ducks	-$150	04-27 04:59
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	2	$141	767	0	+767	No	-$141	06-14 05:28
Wild vs. Avalanche	2	$120	111	111	+0	Avalanche	+$102	05-14 03:33
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$102	300	0	+300	open	—	06-02 22:01
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	1	$100	357	0	+357	Yes	-$100	05-08 06:18
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$100	385	0	+385	Yes	+$285	04-17 05:13
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open?	1	$100	1,051	0	+1,051	No	-$100	06-02 22:23
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	1	$100	385	0	+385	No	-$100	06-13 22:31
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	1	$100	357	0	+357	No	-$100	06-20 03:10
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$100	645	0	+645	Yes	-$100	06-15 00:56
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$100	2,857	0	+2,857	No	-$100	05-01 05:14
mlb sf chc 2026 06 07	1	$100	238	0	+238	San Francisco Giants	-$100	06-08 01:27
US recession by end of 2026?	1	$100	435	0	+435	open	—	05-14 05:09
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	2	$67	62	62	+0	Cavaliers	+$47	05-14 02:57
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	1	$51	131	0	+131	No	-$51	06-20 03:49
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	1	$50	238	0	+238	No	-$50	06-16 02:06
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?	1	$50	191	0	+191	No	-$50	06-07 19:04
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	1	$50	263	0	+263	No	+$213	04-21 15:30
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$40	667	0	+667	Yes	-$40	06-15 04:12
mlb nym phi 2026 06 20	2	$40	267	0	+267	Philadelphia Phillies	-$40	06-20 23:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-06 20:21:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,471	100¢	$1,470	0x420bda…
06-26 06:58:19	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	375	6¢	$21	0xde8bcf…
06-20 23:58:41	mlb nym phi 2026 06 20	New York Mets	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x88c81b…
06-20 23:58:32	mlb nym phi 2026 06 20	New York Mets	BUY	142	14¢	$20	0x1be125…
06-20 03:49:38	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	131	39¢	$51	0x62886d…
06-20 03:10:47	Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0x032e5c…
06-18 19:03:02	mlb tor bos 2026 06 18	Boston Red Sox	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x545a7e…
06-17 04:52:53	Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	175	12¢	$21	0x2c3636…
06-17 04:49:11	Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	49	12¢	$6	0xf711e0…
06-16 02:06:07	Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	238	21¢	$50	0x495f55…
06-15 04:12:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0x3db578…
06-15 04:11:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x67326c…
06-15 00:57:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x3820a6…
06-15 00:56:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	645	15¢	$100	0xf86fb8…
06-14 05:28:27	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	308	13¢	$40	0x7d9a80…
06-14 05:05:06	Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	459	22¢	$101	0x1badde…
06-13 22:31:58	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	385	26¢	$100	0xc92936…
06-08 20:24:43	Will Peru win on 2026-06-08?	Yes	BUY	110	5¢	$5	0x9facc6…
06-08 01:27:39	mlb sf chc 2026 06 07	Chicago Cubs	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0x3b8795…
06-08 00:41:42	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	645	31¢	$200	0x2de78b…
06-07 19:04:13	Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?	Yes	BUY	191	26¢	$50	0x962172…
06-07 18:32:36	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,786	11¢	$200	0xf2d155…
06-05 01:57:51	itf greiner tatu 2026 06 05	Sophie Greiner	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x24469a…
06-04 05:49:42	atp beckley duran 2026 06 04	Alec Beckley	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x722675…
06-03 03:48:11	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,111	27¢	$300	0xb986aa…
06-02 22:23:00	Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	1,051	10¢	$100	0x811a13…
06-02 22:01:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	300	34¢	$102	0x0d0082…
05-29 05:08:31	Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	72	17¢	$12	0xbdd5ba…
05-23 05:32:51	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	109	18¢	$20	0x6a178f…
05-20 05:10:43	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 20?	Yes	BUY	130	8¢	$10	0x948429…
05-19 04:38:42	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0x0faa15…
05-14 05:09:11	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	435	23¢	$100	0xe76fc1…
05-14 03:33:49	Wild vs. Avalanche	Avalanche	SELL	111	100¢	$111	0x955130…
05-14 02:57:49	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Cavaliers	SELL	62	91¢	$57	0x663ebb…
05-14 02:30:43	Wild vs. Avalanche	Avalanche	BUY	111	8¢	$9	0xe785a1…
05-14 02:28:27	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Cavaliers	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x220456…
05-13 05:01:09	Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	300	10¢	$30	0xd8b6de…
05-11 04:41:59	Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?	Yes	BUY	166	18¢	$30	0x5a9ce1…
05-08 06:18:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0x3d9c6c…
05-06 05:35:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	571	35¢	$200	0xd67836…
05-06 05:27:02	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xe8d10a…
05-01 22:47:16	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x5477f3…
05-01 05:15:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	833	1¢	$5	0x9b98cc…
05-01 05:14:52	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,857	3¢	$100	0x752eb5…
05-01 02:39:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	471	100¢	$469	0xa91bb5…
04-30 17:30:04	Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xd45408…
04-30 13:17:24	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	1,224	49¢	$600	0x73bf1f…
04-29 14:47:00	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x4c644b…
04-29 05:30:42	James Comey arrested by May 15?	No	BUY	182	11¢	$20	0x37312d…
04-28 15:08:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,408	71¢	$1,000	0x4440c8…
04-28 03:52:34	Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0x58e114…
04-27 05:24:26	Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xa38f4f…
04-27 04:59:34	NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Oilers	Oilers	BUY	580	26¢	$150	0xdf52f5…
04-23 16:00:10	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	281	36¢	$101	0x31e8bd…
04-23 15:58:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	SELL	521	97¢	$504	0x1c3037…
04-23 05:36:58	will david bailey be the second pick in the 2026 nfl draft	Yes	BUY	1,167	51¢	$600	0x4e4a8d…
04-23 04:55:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0x615a63…
04-22 19:19:28	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0xa9427a…
04-22 16:06:18	will arvell reese be the third pick in the 2026 nfl draft	Yes	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xacd6b4…
04-22 16:06:12	will arvell reese be the third pick in the 2026 nfl draft	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x100ee4…
04-22 16:03:52	will david bailey be the second pick in the 2026 nfl draft	Yes	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0xa3d104…
04-22 02:17:14	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	SELL	25	81¢	$20	0x6148da…
04-21 15:30:00	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	263	19¢	$50	0x9e5cea…
04-21 06:19:08	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	831	60¢	$500	0x68f49f…
04-21 05:18:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	468	43¢	$200	0xbbd880…
04-21 05:09:08	nba min den 2026 04 20	Timberwolves	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x38c195…
04-20 20:56:40	highest temperature in seoul on april 21 2026 18corhigher	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x945454…
04-20 20:56:32	highest temperature in seoul on april 21 2026 17c	Yes	BUY	146	14¢	$20	0xe2f8ca…
04-20 20:55:26	highest temperature in nyc on april 21 2026 52 53f	Yes	BUY	41	25¢	$10	0x89d402…
04-20 20:55:18	highest temperature in nyc on april 21 2026 56 57f	Yes	BUY	239	2¢	$5	0x64e948…
04-20 20:55:10	highest temperature in nyc on april 21 2026 54 55f	Yes	BUY	199	10¢	$20	0xbfe22e…
04-20 20:44:20	highest temperature in seoul on april 21 2026 17c	Yes	BUY	76	13¢	$10	0xf9a6cf…
04-20 05:39:50	Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch	Tamara Korpatsch	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x5bb3c5…
04-19 05:13:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x23152d…
04-19 05:03:24	trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xa37508…
04-19 05:00:02	Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?	Yes	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0x9301af…
04-17 05:13:20	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	385	26¢	$100	0x2ec3ff…
04-17 05:09:00	atp fonseca shelton 2026 04 17	Ben Shelton	BUY	31	36¢	$11	0xf08f3f…
04-17 04:23:56	highest temperature in denver on april 17 2026 54forhigher	No	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x30f932…
04-16 22:24:56	will claude by anthropic be 1 free app in the us apple app store on april 17	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x7368bc…
04-16 21:25:28	highest temperature in denver on april 17 2026 54forhigher	No	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x6253b0…
04-16 21:25:14	highest temperature in denver on april 17 2026 54forhigher	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xe17672…
04-16 06:15:40	highest temperature in denver on april 17 2026 44 45f	Yes	BUY	192	3¢	$5	0x64a290…
04-16 06:15:30	highest temperature in denver on april 17 2026 46 47f	Yes	BUY	119	4¢	$5	0x880cda…
04-16 06:15:16	highest temperature in denver on april 17 2026 48 49f	Yes	BUY	88	4¢	$4	0xa5e24f…
04-16 06:15:06	highest temperature in denver on april 17 2026 50 51f	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0xdedbe4…
04-16 06:14:58	highest temperature in denver on april 17 2026 52 53f	Yes	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0x2a4d2b…
04-16 05:16:56	highest temperature in toronto on april 16 2026 17c	Yes	BUY	165	3¢	$5	0x89bd9b…
04-16 05:16:40	highest temperature in toronto on april 16 2026 18c	Yes	BUY	73	14¢	$10	0x51f953…
04-15 20:31:58	will trump say maga or make america great again during fox interview on wednesday	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x26cdee…
04-15 18:18:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 18:15 UTC	Down	SELL	41	39¢	$16	0x40e3fc…
04-15 18:17:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x9f9551…
04-15 18:16:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-15 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x3e0a41…
04-12 23:40:01	nba den sas 2026 04 12	Nuggets	BUY	52	21¢	$11	0x3626c8…
04-12 21:39:45	mlb cws kc 2026 04 12	Kansas City Royals	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd16be2…