Realized P&L (30d)
-$64
Unrealized P&L
+$265
Hit rate
32.6%
Resolved (30d)
54
Trades (30d)
159
1,380 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$809
$7.14K lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$1.23K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-03
last 11-01 00:11
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 127 days
Categories
Other
48% 34% -$247
Politics
45% 27% -$836
Crypto
4% 29% -$231
Tech
2% 100% +$41
Sports
1% 60% -$2
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$35
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
79 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +439 $216 86¢ $375 +$159 07-06 14:47
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +196 $98 62¢ $122 +$24 10-28 01:48
will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date No +75 $34 90¢ $68 +$34 06-23 20:51
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes +396 $133 16¢ $61 -$71 07-15 07:06
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917 Yes +60 $30 99¢ $59 +$29 10-19 15:56
No one announced as next James Bond? No +55 $28 83¢ $46 +$18 09-12 22:15
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat? No +95 $43 45¢ $43 -$1 10-28 00:12
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +95 $38 43¢ $41 +$3 07-13 03:50
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? No +96 $37 42¢ $41 +$4 10-27 00:06
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? Yes +89 $40 44¢ $40 $0 10-28 00:13
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? Yes +90 $35 42¢ $37 +$2 11-01 00:11
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +30 $4 94¢ $28 +$24 07-31 13:36
iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 No +30 $13 88¢ $27 +$14 08-10 14:46
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31 No +26 $12 100¢ $26 +$14 08-02 17:53
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +40 $19 50¢ $20 +$1 10-24 05:54
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 No +20 $10 86¢ $17 +$7 08-09 11:55
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +140 $28 12¢ $16 -$12 10-02 00:14
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat? No +39 $15 42¢ $16 +$1 10-28 00:13
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $24 16¢ $16 -$9 07-28 02:41
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +20 $10 74¢ $14 +$5 10-21 19:52
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No +15 $8 96¢ $14 +$7 08-05 13:40
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 632 No +15 $7 94¢ $14 +$8 07-31 20:21
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +15 $8 89¢ $13 +$6 08-22 19:04
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +15 $8 88¢ $13 +$6 09-20 00:22
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +15 $6 84¢ $13 +$7 09-19 23:52
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +75 $14 16¢ $12 -$3 10-09 18:45
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? Yes +95 $14 12¢ $11 -$3 10-30 22:40
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +30 $10 32¢ $10 +$0 08-22 07:56
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +15 $8 62¢ $9 +$2 09-25 16:21
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes +80 $19 12¢ $9 -$10 07-07 06:05