Realized P&L (90d)
-$262
Unrealized P&L
+$212
Hit rate
33.7%
Resolved (90d)
177
Trades (90d)
445
1,169 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$1.76K
$5.25K lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$1.12K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-03
last 10-28 01:48
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 125 days
Categories
Other
47% 33% -$222
Politics
45% 27% -$794
Crypto
4% 29% -$231
Tech
2% 100% +$41
Sports
1% 60% -$2
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$35
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
78 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +439 $216 86¢ $377 +$161 07-06 14:47
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +196 $98 60¢ $116 +$19 10-28 01:48
will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date No +75 $34 90¢ $68 +$34 06-23 20:51
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes +396 $133 16¢ $65 -$67 07-15 07:06
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +60 $30 90¢ $54 +$24 10-19 15:56
No one announced as next James Bond? No +55 $28 77¢ $43 +$15 09-12 22:15
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +95 $38 39¢ $37 -$1 07-13 03:50
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +30 $4 92¢ $28 +$23 07-31 13:36
iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553 No +30 $13 88¢ $26 +$14 08-10 14:46
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31 No +26 $12 98¢ $25 +$14 08-02 17:53
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +140 $28 15¢ $20 -$8 10-02 00:14
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $24 20¢ $20 -$5 07-28 02:41
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +40 $19 48¢ $19 +$0 10-24 05:54
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 No +20 $10 88¢ $18 +$8 08-09 11:55
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat? No +39 $15 40¢ $15 +$1 10-28 00:13
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +160 $45 10¢ $15 -$30 10-22 06:38
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? No +15 $8 98¢ $15 +$7 10-09 13:11
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +20 $10 74¢ $15 +$5 10-21 19:52
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No +15 $8 96¢ $14 +$7 08-05 13:40
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +75 $14 18¢ $14 $0 10-09 18:45
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? No +35 $18 40¢ $14 -$4 10-24 06:16
israel x hamas ceasefire phase ii by december 31 632 No +15 $7 92¢ $14 +$7 07-31 20:21
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +15 $8 89¢ $13 +$6 08-22 19:04
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +15 $8 86¢ $13 +$5 09-20 00:22
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +15 $6 81¢ $12 +$7 09-19 23:52
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes +82 $21 14¢ $11 -$10 10-01 06:59
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +30 $10 34¢ $10 +$0 08-22 07:56
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +15 $8 66¢ $10 +$2 09-25 16:21
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes +80 $21 12¢ $10 -$12 07-07 06:06
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes +80 $19 12¢ $9 -$10 07-07 06:05