Formal-Supreme — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.74K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.25K

Hit rate

53.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,311

lifetime

Volume

$137.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$105

Open exposure

$6.08K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-02 20:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Other

43% 56% +$373

Politics

38% 58% +$867

Tech

18% 67% -$4,755

Sports

0% 0% -$230

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	-4,898	-$3,553	86¢	$-4192	-$639	06-30 08:55
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+10,003	$2,318	17¢	$1.7K	-$648	06-25 00:02
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+4,795	$110	3¢	$122	+$12	06-15 15:13
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	No	-150	-$71	48¢	$-73	-$2	05-08 08:46
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+244	$35	10¢	$23	-$12	07-17 19:46
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	+0	-$50	80¢	$0	+$50	06-03 13:49
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+0	$14	6¢	$0	-$14	08-25 11:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	46	$21.2K	14,369	14,369	+0	open	—	07-07 14:23
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	78	$14.5K	21,843	23,968	-2,125	Yes	-$13	04-03 21:53
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	42	$13.1K	8,275	8,275	+0	open	—	06-03 13:49
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	46	$9.5K	3,354	13,480	-10,126	No	-$4,497	05-31 15:31
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	108	$9.3K	4,068	8,966	-4,898	open	—	06-30 08:55
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	87	$9.1K	16,513	19,451	-2,938	Yes	+$1,049	04-03 21:36
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	25	$7.3K	4,911	5,115	-203	No	+$302	06-05 10:08
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	10	$5.5K	3,180	3,180	+0	No	+$64	05-24 22:51
Fed rate hike in 2026?	7	$4.7K	4,000	4,000	+0	Yes	+$40	07-12 15:19
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	30	$4.4K	3,244	3,244	+0	open	—	06-11 21:46
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	5	$3.4K	2,224	2,224	+0	No	+$44	03-26 19:08
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	7	$2.9K	2,645	2,645	+0	No	+$0	04-01 18:20
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	61	$2.8K	10,881	877	+10,003	open	—	06-25 00:02
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	31	$2.7K	765	2,829	-2,063	Yes	-$188	03-26 14:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	21	$2.6K	1,525	1,525	-0	No	-$137	01-16 09:33
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	9	$2.3K	2,045	2,045	+0	open	—	05-29 03:57
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	14	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$30	05-22 16:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	7	$1.3K	1,411	1,392	+20	Yes	-$533	04-29 09:51
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	15	$1.1K	1,479	610	+868	Yes	-$3	05-22 16:02
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	7	$1.1K	987	987	-0	Yes	+$33	03-27 11:30
will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	8	$1.1K	1,198	1,198	+0	open	—	06-22 20:18
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	32	$1.0K	6,815	6,815	+0	open	—	08-25 11:25
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?	23	$1.0K	3,567	701	+2,865	Up	-$683	06-12 16:17
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	14	$901	1,353	1,353	+0	open	—	07-08 19:27
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	8	$892	796	796	+0	No	+$159	05-24 14:19
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	11	$880	8,000	8,000	+0	open	—	06-15 20:03
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	52	$813	2,700	2,700	-0	open	—	06-15 19:55
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	23	$797	1,630	1,630	+0	No	+$105	06-16 20:23
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	9	$765	890	890	+0	open	—	06-04 21:02
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?	15	$728	505	505	+0	No	+$22	05-20 17:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-02 20:55:52	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B?	No	SELL	125	96¢	$120	0xbef9db…
08-25 11:25:40	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1,894	8¢	$142	0xcf04a0…
08-25 09:54:33	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x968ece…
08-25 07:25:36	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	200	8¢	$15	0x21b1d7…
08-25 01:00:40	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x54c8af…
08-24 23:12:13	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	500	8¢	$38	0x5ff1ca…
08-24 20:05:39	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	300	8¢	$22	0x83d055…
08-24 18:54:16	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	15	8¢	$1	0xd81372…
08-24 14:57:22	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	61	8¢	$5	0x3f004c…
08-24 14:00:40	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0xb13f11…
08-24 12:35:04	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1,000	8¢	$75	0x7e721d…
08-24 12:34:03	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xa8b935…
08-24 10:00:39	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x5742d4…
08-24 09:50:04	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x5f42e0…
08-24 07:01:39	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	67	7¢	$5	0x8461e4…
08-24 05:00:42	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x359d4d…
08-24 01:00:36	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x42e3af…
08-24 00:54:06	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	667	7¢	$50	0x255855…
08-24 00:20:24	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	300	8¢	$22	0xbef88c…
08-23 21:57:42	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x793d48…
08-23 21:33:33	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1,400	8¢	$105	0xe59d70…
08-23 20:53:34	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	145	8¢	$11	0x6e8262…
08-23 09:09:16	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?	No	SELL	4	91¢	$4	0x702e92…
08-23 09:08:40	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x81e1a9…
08-06 09:24:33	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	494	17¢	$82	0x9e61d5…
08-01 16:34:47	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 429	No	SELL	830	11¢	$95	0x517bb0…
07-31 22:11:41	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	17¢	$1	0xa201c0…
07-26 22:53:21	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x8dcd27…
07-23 02:34:16	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	17¢	$3	0x535e7f…
07-17 19:46:15	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0xfa2781…
07-17 13:29:18	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	208	17¢	$35	0x6f9511…
07-14 20:51:31	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	114	22¢	$25	0x729f25…
07-12 16:41:04	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	428	17¢	$73	0xb15f02…
07-12 15:19:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,000	59¢	$2,360	0x852f56…
07-09 07:42:34	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,855	58¢	$1,656	0x056cb9…
07-09 06:11:41	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,043	58¢	$605	0x3d37ff…
07-09 06:01:41	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xa09dd4…
07-09 04:25:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	58¢	$33	0xaee824…
07-09 02:41:40	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x2fdf21…
07-09 02:38:17	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x5b95a6…
07-08 19:30:47	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	15¢	$4	0x43c319…
07-08 19:30:34	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	15¢	$3	0xa3f90f…
07-08 19:27:02	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	405	34¢	$139	0xaa6a9a…
07-07 14:23:59	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	945	79¢	$747	0x7d23cd…
07-07 12:50:37	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	302	79¢	$238	0x16fea5…
07-07 11:48:40	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0x77085a…
07-07 11:43:53	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	95	79¢	$75	0x8bbe4c…
07-07 11:42:23	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	760	79¢	$600	0x2f6def…
07-07 11:42:07	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	100	79¢	$79	0x749c82…
07-07 11:41:53	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	37	79¢	$29	0x86861e…
07-07 11:41:53	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	50	79¢	$39	0x718be1…
07-07 11:41:52	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	9,428	79¢	$7,448	0x0fa507…
07-03 08:10:41	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	SELL	249	78¢	$195	0x2ef3b7…
06-30 08:55:17	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	82¢	$61	0x766b10…
06-30 08:54:47	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x128ac6…
06-30 08:05:47	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	22¢	$2	0xe8c065…
06-25 20:39:38	will openais valuation hit high 1pt0t by december 31 846 461	No	SELL	221	14¢	$31	0xeb9082…
06-25 07:02:47	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	BUY	234	18¢	$43	0x8be3dc…
06-25 07:02:40	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	BUY	90	18¢	$17	0xaf9013…
06-25 00:02:10	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	322	21¢	$66	0x18450b…
06-24 23:29:50	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	635	21¢	$131	0x669793…
06-24 22:33:26	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	31	21¢	$6	0xa8133e…
06-24 21:46:29	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	37	21¢	$8	0x487bda…
06-24 21:42:53	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	475	21¢	$98	0x1c1ba9…
06-24 21:38:02	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	32	21¢	$7	0x078e91…
06-24 21:21:13	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	27	21¢	$6	0x7bb796…
06-24 21:14:26	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xfd7df8…
06-24 20:37:38	will openais valuation hit high 1pt0t by december 31 846 461	No	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0xdb97c9…
06-24 20:30:43	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	43	21¢	$9	0xeb9370…
06-24 20:26:10	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	46	31¢	$14	0xfbcece…
06-24 20:16:32	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x2d0730…
06-24 20:16:23	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	803	21¢	$165	0x2e71fb…
06-24 20:14:31	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 429	No	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0xb1fef1…
06-24 08:40:05	will openais valuation hit high 1pt0t by december 31 846 461	No	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x714862…
06-24 08:39:07	will openais valuation hit high 1pt0t by december 31 846 461	No	SELL	200	14¢	$28	0xe8ebdd…
06-24 02:26:35	will openais valuation hit high 1pt0t by december 31 846 461	No	SELL	19	14¢	$3	0xed890a…
06-23 07:58:40	will openais valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 882 628	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x570688…
06-23 02:18:59	will openais valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 882 628	No	SELL	40	70¢	$28	0xdd83a0…
06-22 20:50:16	will openais valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 882 628	No	SELL	11	70¢	$8	0xbda868…
06-22 20:28:37	will openais valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 882 628	No	SELL	108	70¢	$76	0x2d4cc9…
06-22 20:18:50	will openais valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 882 628	No	SELL	16	70¢	$11	0x1dda30…
06-22 20:18:35	will openais valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 882 628	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x46c737…
06-22 20:18:32	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	SELL	1,198	49¢	$587	0x0b95b4…
06-20 09:08:08	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	197	23¢	$46	0x4e0dbd…
06-20 09:08:08	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	320	23¢	$75	0x461f7d…
06-20 09:08:05	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x897270…
06-20 08:23:11	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	277	23¢	$65	0x4c9bad…
06-20 07:34:11	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	249	17¢	$42	0xa35c0d…
06-20 06:56:05	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	121	15¢	$18	0x41e7ac…
06-20 06:55:47	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	202	15¢	$30	0xdca0b7…
06-20 06:50:35	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 429	No	BUY	730	8¢	$58	0xe934fc…
06-20 06:48:53	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	15¢	$4	0x2698bc…
06-20 06:48:16	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	85	15¢	$12	0xf5d751…
06-20 06:46:56	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	218	31¢	$67	0x8a6629…
06-20 06:46:40	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x0c2c6f…
06-20 06:46:32	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0x0ff157…
06-20 06:46:22	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	112	30¢	$34	0x87b03f…
06-20 06:45:46	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xa3f6b2…
06-20 06:45:34	Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	45	30¢	$14	0xfc130d…
06-20 06:45:10	Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xc8d34a…