Stark-Therapy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.60K

Unrealized P&L

+$9.30K

Hit rate

94.7%

Resolved

Trades

2,278

lifetime

Volume

$372.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$164

Open exposure

$66.3K

13 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 10-26 08:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 30 days

Categories

Politics

50% 90% -$317

Other

49% 84% +$1,810

Tech

1% 100% +$112

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 116 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	+19,000	$15,650	85¢	$16.1K	+$500	10-22 17:26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+20,000	$16,689	80¢	$16.1K	-$589	10-25 13:30
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+16,000	$10,039	98¢	$15.7K	+$5,641	10-24 20:23
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	+5,000	$3,366	84¢	$4.2K	+$809	10-22 20:52
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	No	+3,759	$3,374	92¢	$3.5K	+$104	10-25 09:22
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	+3,500	$1,630	99¢	$3.5K	+$1,830	10-26 20:10
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	+3,500	$3,255	94¢	$3.3K	+$18	10-24 16:07
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	+2,000	$1,502	98¢	$2.0K	+$454	10-23 14:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-800	-$664	96¢	$-767	-$103	05-11 20:46
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	+500	-$168	92¢	$458	+$626	10-24 08:21
NATO dissolves before 2027?	No	-438	-$416	99¢	$-432	-$16	05-20 06:28
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	-400	-$346	88¢	$-350	-$4	06-15 06:44
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	+0	-$35	91¢	$0	+$35	09-03 05:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	93	$43.7K	25,000	21,500	+3,500	open	—	10-26 20:10
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	115	$39.2K	20,180	20,000	+180	No	+$867	10-04 23:07
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	66	$25.7K	24,000	8,000	+16,000	open	—	10-24 20:23
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	71	$18.1K	9,500	9,500	+0	No	+$698	09-29 16:46
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	29	$16.7K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	10-25 13:30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	54	$15.6K	19,000	0	+19,000	open	—	10-22 17:26
russia military action against eu country by december 31 2026	53	$13.5K	8,000	7,500	+500	open	—	10-24 08:21
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	40	$12.6K	7,000	5,800	+1,200	Yes	+$194	10-04 23:19
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	86	$9.9K	11,850	0	+11,850	open	—	10-22 17:27
Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by September 30?	52	$7.1K	3,596	3,596	+0	No	+$69	10-01 06:27
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	34	$6.9K	3,600	3,600	-0	Yes	+$139	10-04 07:23
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?	30	$6.6K	3,422	3,422	+0	open	—	10-22 20:23
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	63	$5.1K	6,000	1,000	+5,000	open	—	10-22 20:52
Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	29	$4.3K	2,300	2,300	+0	No	+$137	09-23 08:44
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	48	$4.0K	2,459	2,459	+0	open	—	10-03 11:23
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	21	$3.9K	2,300	2,300	+0	open	—	09-03 05:00
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	18	$3.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$169	05-30 15:17
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	31	$3.7K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$188	06-18 00:34
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	20	$3.7K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$203	06-30 16:15
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	10	$3.7K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$117	07-20 18:47
russia military action against eu country by september 30 2026	8	$3.6K	1,800	1,800	+0	No	+$29	09-30 14:15
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	19	$3.5K	1,900	1,900	+0	No	+$269	07-01 03:03
no confidence vote against spain pm sanchez by june 30	35	$3.5K	1,852	1,852	+0	No	+$138	07-01 06:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	15	$3.4K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	-$262	07-26 07:26
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	16	$3.4K	3,759	0	+3,759	open	—	10-25 09:22
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	4	$3.3K	3,500	0	+3,500	open	—	10-24 16:07
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	43	$3.3K	3,500	3,500	+0	No	-$2,413	10-04 21:08
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30?	44	$3.2K	1,700	1,700	+0	No	+$126	06-24 08:28
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1100?	32	$3.1K	1,600	1,600	-0	Yes	+$112	09-14 07:11
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	10	$3.0K	1,600	1,600	+0	No	+$96	07-07 19:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 20:12:21	Will Vox win the third-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	539	88¢	$474	0xf8009e…
10-26 20:10:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	550	99¢	$543	0xcdba9d…
10-26 20:05:36	Will PSOE win 102-107 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0x399609…
10-26 20:05:17	Will PSOE win 102-107 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	17	80¢	$14	0xc5d63d…
10-26 20:03:51	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	No	BUY	67	87¢	$58	0xbed2a0…
10-26 20:03:32	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	No	BUY	33	86¢	$29	0xbc4816…
10-26 20:02:54	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x192a83…
10-26 08:39:24	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xa236ae…
10-26 08:38:14	Will PSOE win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xdac8cb…
10-26 08:36:51	Will PSOE win 102-107 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	56	80¢	$45	0x1be793…
10-26 08:36:45	Will PSOE win 102-107 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	22	79¢	$17	0xb169fe…
10-26 08:35:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x4b21fa…
10-26 05:33:08	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	32	87¢	$28	0x196af8…
10-25 19:49:08	Will PP win the most seats in Huelva in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x93f0b7…
10-25 18:45:11	Will Vox win the third-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xc56960…
10-25 18:43:42	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0x2ef1db…
10-25 16:54:38	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	No	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0xe49eca…
10-25 16:51:23	Will PSOE win 102-107 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	203	77¢	$156	0x7c6e02…
10-25 16:50:36	Will PP win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0x907889…
10-25 16:50:08	Will PP win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	60	41¢	$25	0x81c57f…
10-25 16:39:30	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	52	89¢	$46	0xdff3a4…
10-25 16:25:18	Spain General Election: PSOE gains seats?	Yes	SELL	92	30¢	$28	0x22bd9a…
10-25 13:31:51	Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	123	68¢	$84	0x34d361…
10-25 13:31:36	Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x2f8fd4…
10-25 13:30:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	81¢	$810	0x220aed…
10-25 10:03:30	France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x2c9fe7…
10-25 10:02:18	Will PSOE win fewer than 96 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x427445…
10-25 10:01:12	Will PSOE win 102-107 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	74	80¢	$59	0x864bec…
10-25 09:59:56	Will PSOE win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xf3208d…
10-25 09:58:48	Will PP win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	17	43¢	$7	0x963dbe…
10-25 09:58:48	Will PP win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0x36b2b6…
10-25 09:58:29	Will PP win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0x7d237d…
10-25 09:58:08	Will PP win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	116	42¢	$49	0x09ec82…
10-25 09:56:44	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xa6b2db…
10-25 09:28:48	Will PSOE win fewer than 96 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x94aadf…
10-25 09:26:51	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xcb4732…
10-25 09:26:05	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x6fe31f…
10-25 09:24:29	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	218	90¢	$196	0xe2f397…
10-25 09:22:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x0e198d…
10-25 09:22:23	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xeb1f58…
10-25 09:22:15	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	No	BUY	67	91¢	$61	0xeff510…
10-25 09:21:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	2,000	99¢	$1,974	0xc8f6a7…
10-25 06:59:57	Will Vox win 76 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	14	85¢	$12	0x02bb40…
10-25 06:56:05	Will PP win the most seats in Huelva in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$8	0xdce520…
10-25 06:53:35	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	65	90¢	$58	0x1ec5e6…
10-25 06:53:21	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x00ae55…
10-25 06:52:00	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x4db0ad…
10-25 06:27:39	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	23	89¢	$20	0xd27a69…
10-24 22:20:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	176	81¢	$143	0xe1b107…
10-24 22:02:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	118	81¢	$95	0x5b8a01…
10-24 21:15:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	206	81¢	$167	0x084879…
10-24 20:29:32	Will Vox win the most seats in Valencia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xf5e8f5…
10-24 20:29:26	Will Vox win the most seats in Valencia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x97433d…
10-24 20:27:42	Will PSOE win the most seats in Huelva in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	36	44¢	$16	0x14175f…
10-24 20:25:00	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x25e452…
10-24 20:24:12	Will Vox receive 22% or more of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x25f2a0…
10-24 20:23:35	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	952	98¢	$930	0x906559…
10-24 20:22:56	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$42	0x0ffd5d…
10-24 20:22:53	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$4	0xd12a0f…
10-24 20:18:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xdd5902…
10-24 20:18:38	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	No	BUY	49	90¢	$44	0xf98b18…
10-24 17:59:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	80¢	$400	0x6107e2…
10-24 17:58:47	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	98¢	$488	0x85322d…
10-24 16:41:21	Will PP win the most seats in Huelva in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0x38e8a3…
10-24 16:37:41	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	76	84¢	$64	0x43c4d5…
10-24 16:36:51	Will EH Bildu win the most seats in Gipuzkoa in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0xf1076d…
10-24 16:36:45	Will EH Bildu win the most seats in Gipuzkoa in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xc552c3…
10-24 16:35:54	Will Vox receive 22% or more of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	80	91¢	$73	0xc2e085…
10-24 16:35:00	Will PSOE win the most seats in Tarragona in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0xc0c2b8…
10-24 16:30:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	477	81¢	$386	0x2a064f…
10-24 16:29:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	23	80¢	$18	0x6b7188…
10-24 16:29:21	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	98¢	$293	0xfa9975…
10-24 16:29:00	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$195	0x367b72…
10-24 16:28:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	81¢	$405	0xb17ccf…
10-24 16:24:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	81¢	$810	0x5ae3d9…
10-24 16:24:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	735	81¢	$595	0x3e646b…
10-24 16:23:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	115	80¢	$92	0x96d2af…
10-24 16:23:18	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	51	98¢	$49	0x81b8ab…
10-24 16:23:03	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,949	98¢	$1,905	0x14da4e…
10-24 16:09:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	150	80¢	$120	0x6f6ef7…
10-24 16:07:33	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2,500	93¢	$2,325	0x851b9f…
10-24 16:06:42	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,500	98¢	$2,442	0x6547bd…
10-24 16:05:35	Will PP win the most seats in Huelva in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x71c2ee…
10-24 16:00:56	Will PP win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	14	46¢	$6	0x8f4ed8…
10-24 16:00:17	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0x873b1f…
10-24 15:58:41	Will EH Bildu win the most seats in Gipuzkoa in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x35f2aa…
10-24 15:48:44	Will Vox win the most seats in Valencia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x6320f4…
10-24 13:50:09	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xa79714…
10-24 12:46:05	Will PSOE win 102-107 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	37	86¢	$32	0xee5b18…
10-24 12:45:20	Will PSOE win fewer than 96 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x744a5f…
10-24 12:45:12	Will PSOE win fewer than 96 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x436a24…
10-24 12:45:02	Will PSOE win fewer than 96 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xeb2873…
10-24 12:44:09	Will PSOE win the most seats in Huelva in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0x8b0e48…
10-24 12:43:14	Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x7c3e66…
10-24 12:42:05	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	24	80¢	$19	0x94f167…
10-24 12:41:30	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xae8535…
10-24 12:40:48	Will Vox receive 22% or more of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xb79c17…
10-24 08:46:20	Will Vox receive between 20% and 22% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	18	84¢	$15	0xc923f7…
10-24 08:33:29	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	41	93¢	$38	0x8cd2d1…
10-24 08:32:59	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x780e30…