Nautical-Moody — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.00K

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

49.9%

Resolved

1,509

Trades

4,461

lifetime

Volume

$47.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$539

18 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 10-06 07:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 154 days

Categories

Other

70% 37% -$749

Crypto

17% 72% -$171

Politics

10% 43% -$64

Tech

2% 43% -$8

Pop-Culture

1% 50% -$8

Sports

0% 40% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 119 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	+187	$102	96¢	$179	+$78	07-13 11:20
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	+142	$88	100¢	$142	+$54	07-27 13:26
iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	+100	$70	74¢	$74	+$4	07-11 23:02
iran leadership change by june 30 2027	Yes	+100	$28	26¢	$26	-$3	07-10 04:34
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+40	$24	59¢	$24	$0	10-04 20:53
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+40	$16	41¢	$16	+$0	10-04 20:52
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	+19	$8	84¢	$16	+$8	09-25 20:17
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?	Yes	+19	$14	65¢	$12	-$2	09-30 18:07
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	No	+11	$10	99¢	$11	+$1	09-22 12:30
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	No	+10	$23	95¢	$9	-$13	10-05 07:18
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	+11	$5	85¢	$9	+$4	09-25 17:21
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+187	$83	4¢	$8	-$75	07-13 10:42
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?	No	+19	$5	35¢	$7	+$2	09-30 18:07
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	No	+19	$11	16¢	$3	-$8	09-25 19:50
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	+11	$6	15¢	$2	-$4	09-25 16:50
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	+10	$4	5¢	$1	-$4	09-14 15:59
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	+142	$53	0¢	$0	-$53	07-12 10:30
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	+11	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	10-01 10:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	44	$2.0K	2,880	1,680	+1,200	Yes	+$45	05-23 18:03
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	29	$1.1K	721	601	+120	Yes	+$3	09-21 06:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	11	$928	1,125	891	+234	No	-$2	05-26 06:24
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	10	$785	925	691	+234	Yes	-$5	05-26 06:24
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	59	$779	1,363	68	+1,295	Yes	-$5	09-16 08:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	12	$623	753	753	+0	No	-$15	05-22 10:51
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	7	$578	300	300	+0	Yes	+$2	09-21 07:01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	15	$569	913	226	+687	No	+$0	09-13 14:02
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% in September?	14	$539	1,000	41	+959	No	-$4	09-24 09:00
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) post about $LAPTOP by September 30?	16	$515	609	145	+464	No	+$1	09-25 15:43
Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?	29	$497	564	182	+383	Yes	-$4	09-23 06:53
Will Eric Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30?	21	$468	665	97	+567	No	-$1	09-24 20:10
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	18	$448	367	202	+164	Yes	$0	09-24 12:35
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	6	$438	235	235	+0	No	-$5	09-04 02:28
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?	13	$403	266	212	+54	No	+$1	09-23 16:01
Will LAPTOP not launch by December 31?	6	$390	360	358	+1	No	-$2	09-08 02:47
Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?	30	$365	792	60	+732	No	-$5	09-23 23:43
Israeli airspace closed by September 30, 2026?	17	$351	485	145	+340	No	-$1	09-30 06:28
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	13	$321	382	96	+286	No	-$1	09-13 15:42
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in September?	15	$300	465	183	+283	No	+$3	09-23 13:46
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?	5	$287	283	283	+0	No	-$2	05-26 07:32
will wti dip to 100 in september 2026 from september 14	13	$285	202	200	+2	Yes	+$1	09-17 11:47
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week?	10	$276	211	129	+82	Yes	+$0	09-15 14:09
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 2pt5	4	$247	186	186	+0	Under	+$27	07-19 21:08
iran leadership change by june 30 2027	5	$246	300	100	+200	open	—	07-11 23:02
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in September?	8	$239	152	112	+40	No	+$1	09-17 16:48
US x China tariff agreement by October 31?	7	$236	200	100	+100	Yes	+$0	09-25 14:09
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	5	$214	917	917	+0	No	-$136	05-26 05:52
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-19 House seat?	7	$197	397	1	+396	open	—	09-13 14:02
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% in September?	11	$197	246	54	+192	Yes	-$1	09-17 16:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 07:01:46	Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x5db78b…
10-06 07:01:40	Will White House post 180-199 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xb74fc0…
10-06 07:01:34	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-10 House seat?	No	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0x214a76…
10-06 07:01:30	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $405 in October?	Yes	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x6c3dd8…
10-06 07:01:25	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0x9b9f89…
10-06 07:01:19	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xb317f4…
10-06 07:01:13	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in September?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xa042cf…
10-06 07:01:06	Will no Atlantic hurricane form in October 2026?	No	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0xde080f…
10-05 08:49:44	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	No	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xe9a7a7…
10-05 08:49:37	Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between October 1 and October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xd1101e…
10-05 08:49:26	will aapl dip to 328 in october 2026 from october 2	No	SELL	40	14¢	$6	0xa793aa…
10-05 07:40:50	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xb51b58…
10-05 07:18:20	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	No	SELL	90	82¢	$74	0x76772b…
10-05 07:10:31	will aapl dip to 328 in october 2026 from october 2	No	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0xad83cf…
10-05 06:18:38	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x1af2f6…
10-05 05:33:08	Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	23	89¢	$21	0x511ded…
10-05 05:32:58	Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	11¢	$3	0x34e093…
10-05 05:03:22	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $180 in October?	No	SELL	40	31¢	$12	0x7b5708…
10-05 05:02:52	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $110 in October?	No	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0x15b2d6…
10-05 04:46:31	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	SELL	40	46¢	$18	0x2c3523…
10-05 04:32:50	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $180 in October?	No	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0x8b59eb…
10-05 04:32:20	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $110 in October?	No	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0xa1e517…
10-05 04:15:56	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x146b6e…
10-05 03:50:19	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x68f054…
10-05 03:46:16	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xb7274d…
10-05 02:39:50	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	22	49¢	$11	0x60212e…
10-05 02:32:07	Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	40	22¢	$9	0x5656b8…
10-05 02:24:59	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x5ebf0f…
10-05 02:09:16	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xb3988b…
10-05 02:00:58	Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x3aa097…
10-05 01:54:35	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xa09c6f…
10-05 01:47:04	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	19	56¢	$11	0xc57208…
10-05 01:39:41	Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 104.00 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x30e028…
10-05 01:36:34	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	45¢	$9	0x618228…
10-05 01:23:43	Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x3348ce…
10-05 00:54:38	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x5daa77…
10-05 00:53:08	Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x6af70c…
10-05 00:24:11	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x73c3b7…
10-05 00:08:11	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x2ef494…
10-05 00:07:52	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xccab93…
10-04 22:39:17	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xcc2f86…
10-04 21:00:41	Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 104.00 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xaf5d87…
10-04 20:53:08	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x4cc258…
10-04 20:52:13	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	41¢	$16	0x140dd2…
10-04 19:41:40	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	BUY	14	48¢	$7	0x976a16…
10-04 19:41:22	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x6e3033…
10-04 19:26:31	Will Lindsay Clancy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	73¢	$14	0xcfc536…
10-04 19:26:04	Will Lindsay Clancy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x046f14…
10-04 18:05:08	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x2c8086…
10-04 17:34:55	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xe48bc4…
10-04 17:34:02	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	20¢	$3	0xd5a33d…
10-04 17:31:49	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	80¢	$14	0xdc16ff…
10-04 15:44:07	OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x1114a4…
10-04 15:17:22	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x3cb0e9…
10-04 15:12:16	OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x443f51…
10-04 13:13:58	Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire?	No	SELL	50	76¢	$38	0xee4994…
10-04 13:13:28	Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x6cc27f…
10-04 12:53:52	Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x486cea…
10-04 12:23:40	Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	18¢	$3	0xe288ae…
10-04 12:23:38	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xed0035…
10-04 12:22:34	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xd63072…
10-04 12:20:10	Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	19	82¢	$16	0x6be099…
10-04 12:19:58	Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xa55db8…
10-04 10:54:20	Will Waymo launch in San Diego, CA by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xcee99d…
10-04 10:23:43	Will Waymo launch in San Diego, CA by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xf97ae6…
10-04 06:28:01	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Elon Musk by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	72¢	$14	0x717fb3…
10-04 06:26:14	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Elon Musk by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x37da64…
10-04 04:15:19	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x5830fb…
10-04 04:14:37	Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x5ba0f7…
10-04 03:47:31	Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x7ad68c…
10-04 03:47:01	Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$7	0xac21de…
10-04 02:16:46	Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x8cc898…
10-04 02:16:34	Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xd7f5d9…
10-04 00:35:43	Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xfe30ad…
10-04 00:35:11	Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x3fdcf1…
10-03 23:24:59	Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x10d3a7…
10-03 23:24:29	Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x6fb6ed…
10-03 22:47:37	Will it snow in New York City, NY by November 30?	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x765ba8…
10-03 22:47:25	Will it snow in New York City, NY by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x8ad288…
10-03 22:16:32	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x9bbd8e…
10-03 22:16:22	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xc8f1d1…
10-03 21:10:22	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	40	40¢	$16	0x6e3d15…
10-03 21:09:28	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0x86010b…
10-03 20:37:08	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-32 House seat?	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x8d896b…
10-03 19:11:24	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x8179c3…
10-03 18:41:06	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	19	15¢	$3	0x3156c2…
10-03 18:40:53	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	19	81¢	$16	0x8bfc9c…
10-03 18:40:42	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xd17f95…
10-03 18:32:12	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x2d1686…
10-03 18:01:24	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x3910cb…
10-03 16:25:54	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x216381…
10-03 15:55:44	Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0x02d103…
10-03 15:55:30	Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x361ac1…
10-03 15:55:24	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xa1be7c…
10-03 14:53:12	Will Chuck Norris rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026?	No	BUY	19	56¢	$11	0x5bf956…
10-03 14:52:42	Will Chuck Norris rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings in the US of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x01c729…
10-03 13:59:20	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 3.00 to 3.99 ft by November 30?	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x8d073b…
10-03 13:58:45	Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 3.00 to 3.99 ft by November 30?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x52cc30…
10-03 12:46:59	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x53d8ea…
10-03 12:46:41	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0xd7cec1…