Insecure-Squid — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

26.1%

Resolved

Trades

208

lifetime

Volume

$6.64K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-19

last 06-22 09:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

59% — —

Politics

38% 20% +$0

Crypto

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes		+19	$1	5¢	$1	$-0	06-22 09:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	4	$212	113	113	+0	No	+$1	05-02 00:01
will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	4	$210	108	108	+0	open	—	04-21 11:23
Will Trump visit China by May 8?	4	$207	106	106	+0	No	$-0	04-20 01:45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	8	$204	179	179	+0	open	—	05-13 02:00
Iran leadership change by April 30?	4	$203	107	107	+0	open	—	04-24 09:31
will shane lowry win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$198	100	100	+0	open	—	04-08 23:01
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	8	$198	267	267	+0	open	—	04-26 07:35
will trn thanh mn be the next president of vietnam	4	$196	100	100	+0	open	—	04-04 22:05
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	5	$193	101	101	+0	No	$-0	05-06 03:20
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	4	$182	94	94	+0	open	—	04-27 07:58
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	5	$181	92	92	+0	open	—	04-30 19:05
will collin morikawa win the 2026 masters tournament	6	$165	202	252	-50	open	—	04-08 08:22
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	5	$139	254	254	+0	open	—	04-13 14:00
will l minh hng be the next prime minister of vietnam	6	$115	244	244	+0	open	—	04-06 18:21
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$111	56	56	+0	open	—	05-07 03:00
will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$109	56	56	+0	open	—	04-08 18:56
will anish giri win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	2	$109	56	56	+0	open	—	04-09 23:58
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	2	$108	57	57	+0	open	—	04-21 06:09
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$108	55	55	+0	open	—	04-21 17:06
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	2	$105	55	55	+0	open	—	04-24 17:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	4	$104	107	107	+0	open	—	05-12 20:11
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 260 279	2	$103	56	56	+0	open	—	03-30 15:56
elon musk of tweets march 26 march 28 90 114	2	$103	59	59	+0	open	—	03-28 10:59
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	3	$103	52	52	+0	open	—	04-27 01:12
new stranger things episode released by april 30	2	$103	52	52	+0	open	—	03-20 00:58
will polymarket mindshare hit 90	2	$102	52	52	+0	open	—	03-29 01:13
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$102	52	52	+0	open	—	03-27 21:15
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 160 179	2	$102	52	52	+0	open	—	03-30 06:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	2	$101	52	52	+0	No	$-0	05-07 23:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$101	51	51	+0	open	—	05-10 21:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 09:25:58	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0x602382…
05-22 01:36:35	Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine?	Yes	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0xfc9ddf…
05-19 19:22:31	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	45	95¢	$43	0xa5e579…
05-19 05:23:53	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x25dc34…
05-18 22:25:17	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x8000e7…
05-18 22:25:15	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	39	4¢	$2	0x248fc5…
05-13 06:37:55	Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x8ca39b…
05-13 06:37:55	Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x36c882…
05-13 02:00:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	1¢	$1	0x102712…
05-13 00:37:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	2¢	$1	0x9ca1e0…
05-12 20:11:13	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	51	98¢	$50	0xbdd180…
05-12 17:40:03	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x9b89d4…
05-12 14:39:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	53	95¢	$50	0xf82ba7…
05-12 09:33:03	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0xea4b01…
05-12 05:08:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	52	97¢	$51	0x64e74e…
05-12 01:29:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0xfbcbe8…
05-12 01:29:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x9b7dbc…
05-11 23:10:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	41	97¢	$39	0xfa91ab…
05-11 23:10:45	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0x8be5bd…
05-11 17:57:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x9a059b…
05-11 12:42:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	3¢	$2	0x17b61e…
05-11 10:04:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	4¢	$2	0x73d330…
05-10 21:29:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	51	99¢	$50	0x227be4…
05-10 19:38:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	41	99¢	$40	0x2b02c0…
05-10 19:38:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x144c75…
05-09 11:50:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	SELL	52	96¢	$50	0xc9841c…
05-09 08:03:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xb0fdff…
05-07 23:35:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	52	97¢	$50	0x9a66c0…
05-07 19:37:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$51	0x543536…
05-07 03:00:50	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	56	99¢	$56	0x347f6a…
05-07 01:46:03	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$56	0x47dfe6…
05-06 06:41:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	6¢	$2	0x7aff5e…
05-06 06:40:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	128	6¢	$8	0x83f4d8…
05-06 06:40:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	6¢	$2	0x34f7b9…
05-06 06:40:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0x25b843…
05-06 04:59:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	191	5¢	$10	0x9f6ded…
05-06 04:59:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0x7905c9…
05-06 03:20:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x1ac87f…
05-03 13:39:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xc86a1b…
05-03 09:37:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x5d0d7c…
05-03 03:56:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0x54e837…
05-03 02:27:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	51	96¢	$49	0x68b319…
05-02 00:01:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	57	94¢	$54	0xc31ac1…
05-01 22:02:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	57	92¢	$53	0x7720e6…
05-01 09:27:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	56	95¢	$53	0x340b1f…
05-01 09:26:56	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	56	94¢	$53	0x7b867c…
04-30 19:05:18	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	44	99¢	$44	0xa431be…
04-30 15:13:48	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	44	99¢	$43	0xb321c1…
04-30 10:42:52	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0x608cef…
04-30 10:42:50	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0x55c480…
04-30 07:47:30	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	48	98¢	$47	0x9ad74e…
04-28 02:04:24	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x7d7265…
04-27 14:49:58	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	49	94¢	$46	0x6561b6…
04-27 10:46:30	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	49	95¢	$47	0xa9de6e…
04-27 07:58:58	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	SELL	47	98¢	$46	0x7e2f16…
04-27 03:05:30	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0xe0c7fc…
04-27 01:12:26	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x44f89c…
04-27 01:12:26	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x06d7d7…
04-26 22:57:40	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	99¢	$52	0xa47a1c…
04-26 07:35:40	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0x214468…
04-26 03:39:24	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	48	98¢	$47	0x408de9…
04-26 00:11:46	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa8f4cc…
04-26 00:11:46	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	46	99¢	$45	0x69d995…
04-25 20:56:18	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xbd800c…
04-25 20:56:18	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x03dcd1…
04-25 07:57:26	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	SELL	47	95¢	$45	0xdc1475…
04-25 05:32:16	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	No	BUY	47	95¢	$45	0x7c90b9…
04-24 23:44:20	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	154	7¢	$10	0x57f803…
04-24 22:21:30	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	7¢	$10	0x7552ef…
04-24 17:36:30	Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	55	95¢	$52	0x4d96e7…
04-24 17:35:44	Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	95¢	$52	0xcf80d8…
04-24 09:31:10	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	56	94¢	$53	0x73db86…
04-24 09:30:24	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	56	94¢	$53	0x8a0223…
04-24 02:09:30	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	2¢	$1	0x0ead9e…
04-24 01:58:44	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	141	2¢	$4	0x8df995…
04-24 00:23:36	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	2¢	$1	0xb94163…
04-24 00:23:34	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	141	2¢	$4	0x1b7be1…
04-23 19:43:46	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	108	1¢	$1	0xaf382c…
04-23 17:06:58	Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	1¢	$1	0x043cf0…
04-23 11:40:02	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	49	97¢	$48	0xeb71bb…
04-23 08:36:16	Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	49	97¢	$48	0x9ae83d…
04-23 04:21:14	Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	49	98¢	$48	0x4573f3…
04-23 00:59:46	Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x7f44b9…
04-23 00:59:46	Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$33	0x3ef163…
04-22 21:18:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	SELL	49	97¢	$48	0xeb9450…
04-22 17:14:56	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	BUY	49	98¢	$48	0x50f962…
04-22 12:38:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	182	1¢	$1	0xb9be4b…
04-22 09:47:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	1¢	$2	0x8cea4e…
04-21 17:06:32	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0xee0c02…
04-21 16:34:42	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0xcfabbe…
04-21 11:23:32	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	No	SELL	56	98¢	$55	0xeb7b47…
04-21 10:16:46	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0x4760e6…
04-21 06:09:28	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	57	95¢	$54	0x23cdc4…
04-21 03:44:42	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	57	95¢	$54	0xd33d7b…
04-20 20:18:20	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	51	96¢	$49	0x85f571…
04-20 18:09:10	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	51	96¢	$49	0x00961f…
04-20 03:41:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	53	93¢	$49	0x1c1145…
04-20 01:51:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	53	93¢	$49	0x58b8f4…
04-20 01:45:56	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	SELL	56	98¢	$55	0x4377ef…
04-18 23:36:20	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0x5d3d28…