Realized P&L
+$11
Unrealized P&L
+$349
Hit rate
77.2%
Resolved
31
Trades
7,539
lifetime
Volume
$34.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$171
16 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-01 00:06
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 13 days
Categories
Politics
52% 50% +$17
Other
44% 75% +$12
Sports
3% 47% $-18
Tech
1%
Crypto
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 291 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes +936 $112 15¢ $136 +$24 06-29 12:13
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Yes +150 $14 $13 $-1 06-30 23:50
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? Yes +30 $3 18¢ $5 +$2 06-28 11:50
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No -5 $-4 100¢ $-5 $-1 06-26 03:04
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes -2,120 $-56 $-4 +$52 06-26 02:52
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes +11 $4 30¢ $3 $-1 06-19 17:15
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Yes -35 $-3 $-2 +$1 06-07 01:09
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes -230 $-26 $-1 +$25 06-30 00:10
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes +366 $-195 $1 +$196 06-30 15:14
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Yes -55 $1 $-0 $-2 06-24 05:03
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes -100 $-18 $-0 +$18 06-08 02:38
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes +200 $9 $0 $-9 06-17 18:26
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes -50 $-2 $-0 +$2 06-04 02:19
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Yes +11 $-1 $0 +$1 06-05 09:34
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes +2 $-40 $0 +$40 06-13 22:41
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes -1 $-1 $-0 +$1 06-01 12:20