Gullible-Hurry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$78

Unrealized P&L

+$49

Hit rate

96.3%

Resolved

Trades

232

lifetime

Volume

$13.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$57

Open exposure

$549

1 position

First seen

2026-04-07

last 06-09 13:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

65% 100% +$89

Other

20% — —

Tech

9% — —

Crypto

5% 0% $-11

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+658	$500	84¢	$549	+$49	06-02 19:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	15	$2.5K	1,958	2,108	-150	open	—	06-01 08:29
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	21	$2.2K	2,566	2,565	+0	open	—	04-23 05:49
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	4	$814	574	574	+0	open	—	05-22 02:17
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	4	$539	632	338	+294	open	—	05-18 14:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$500	658	0	+658	open	—	06-02 19:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$393	389	389	+0	open	—	05-12 18:18
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	4	$378	324	324	+0	open	—	05-03 21:19
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	3	$374	264	264	+0	open	—	04-23 06:21
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	4	$364	273	273	+0	open	—	05-22 21:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	1	$300	484	0	+484	open	—	06-02 19:01
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	2	$280	549	0	+549	open	—	06-09 13:27
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	4	$230	305	305	+0	open	—	04-25 17:04
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	4	$216	219	219	+0	open	—	04-25 18:47
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	2	$213	348	0	+348	open	—	04-21 22:00
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	3	$199	533	533	+0	open	—	05-19 14:48
James Comey arrested by April 29?	2	$191	111	111	+0	open	—	04-29 19:48
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$189	105	105	+0	No	+$15	05-02 17:22
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$150	505	0	+505	open	—	04-27 15:58
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	3	$148	927	927	+0	open	—	04-28 05:59
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	2	$142	102	102	+0	open	—	06-07 19:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	2	$133	108	108	+0	open	—	04-21 20:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	5	$130	10,314	0	+10,314	open	—	04-08 16:57
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$118	80	80	+0	open	—	04-21 18:17
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	5	$114	1,314	1,314	+0	open	—	05-19 17:24
Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	5	$102	115	115	+0	open	—	05-26 19:30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	2	$102	244	244	+0	open	—	04-23 17:59
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	1	$100	173	0	+173	Yes	+$73	04-23 21:07
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	2	$90	2,973	0	+2,973	open	—	05-19 22:36
trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	2	$87	59	59	+0	open	—	04-20 21:01
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	3	$81	47	47	+0	open	—	04-21 21:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 13:27:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	No	BUY	140	57¢	$80	0xb958ae…
06-08 22:07:27	btc updown 5m 1780956300	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x03d972…
06-08 18:26:40	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	86¢	$70	0x3fc6a0…
06-07 19:15:45	Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	Yes	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x6f86d2…
06-07 17:24:43	Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	102	39¢	$40	0x370bbf…
06-04 14:24:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	No	BUY	408	49¢	$200	0x717333…
06-02 19:01:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	484	62¢	$300	0x278e4a…
06-02 19:00:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	658	76¢	$500	0x6b01d4…
06-01 18:42:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50,000	0¢	$50	0xcc83f3…
06-01 08:29:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,359	100¢	$1,358	0x7d4446…
05-29 15:17:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xc67a5f…
05-29 15:17:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xb2d5de…
05-29 15:17:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x366f7e…
05-29 14:57:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x740322…
05-26 19:30:06	Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	Yes	SELL	115	41¢	$47	0x265b26…
05-25 15:16:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	87	58¢	$50	0x1466d6…
05-25 15:14:43	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x1b296e…
05-24 21:09:49	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	Yes	BUY	32	6¢	$2	0x6ccf53…
05-24 11:42:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x8d6392…
05-24 11:29:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	60¢	$180	0x233f52…
05-23 23:54:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	749	29¢	$217	0x8eabc7…
05-23 23:19:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0x0c216d…
05-23 21:38:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	222	36¢	$80	0xbb1daa…
05-23 20:48:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x29fd44…
05-23 20:46:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xea7019…
05-23 20:45:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x534680…
05-23 20:32:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	40¢	$120	0x728a54…
05-23 17:44:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xbf4da1…
05-23 17:15:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x138f4a…
05-23 16:15:46	Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0x721a78…
05-23 16:04:41	Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	1	48¢	$1	0x84b615…
05-23 15:53:25	Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xdbd3bc…
05-23 15:53:20	Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	88	48¢	$42	0x631dc3…
05-22 21:41:43	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x11bba9…
05-22 21:23:12	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	177	79¢	$140	0x7a8b87…
05-22 20:52:53	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x8edc45…
05-22 02:17:40	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	SELL	574	100¢	$574	0x016e9f…
05-21 20:41:51	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	160	50¢	$80	0xb092ce…
05-21 20:40:27	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	123	49¢	$60	0x1495ba…
05-21 17:18:51	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	177	79¢	$140	0x6c9c4d…
05-20 09:15:18	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 255,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	248	5¢	$12	0xddd305…
05-20 08:30:50	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 255,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	12	5¢	$1	0xe40cbf…
05-20 08:24:21	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 255,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x93760c…
05-20 07:23:57	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 255,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xf24644…
05-19 22:36:21	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	1,558	3¢	$50	0xde18ae…
05-19 22:33:59	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	291	34¢	$100	0x15b915…
05-19 22:23:42	Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	BUY	1,416	3¢	$40	0x016aec…
05-19 17:24:23	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	SELL	1,314	0¢	$3	0x05f228…
05-19 14:48:54	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	SELL	533	11¢	$59	0x93ba01…
05-19 11:58:57	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	840	1¢	$10	0x19ebf8…
05-19 09:41:36	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	No	SELL	96	45¢	$43	0x077835…
05-18 18:53:02	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	Yes	BUY	322	16¢	$50	0x0dfc63…
05-18 14:08:19	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	No	BUY	294	75¢	$220	0x4e44ec…
05-18 10:30:00	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x0fb0f1…
05-17 21:24:11	Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0x65850b…
05-17 21:23:42	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	SELL	57	71¢	$40	0x1d1bfb…
05-17 18:34:30	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	400	20¢	$80	0x35ea5f…
05-17 16:54:08	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	BUY	298	27¢	$80	0x186fb3…
05-17 16:45:25	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	SELL	338	68¢	$231	0x798f0f…
05-17 13:31:26	US x China tariff agreement by May 31?	Yes	BUY	235	26¢	$60	0xe6d675…
05-17 11:00:24	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xb714bc…
05-16 23:41:26	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	68	29¢	$20	0x976f1f…
05-16 19:18:14	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	BUY	300	26¢	$78	0x59322c…
05-16 10:50:40	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x634a68…
05-16 10:42:41	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x35b476…
05-15 23:26:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x566cc6…
05-15 23:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x754929…
05-15 23:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x9dfc6e…
05-15 23:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x6ff55b…
05-15 23:18:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x34be42…
05-15 23:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xdfe2e4…
05-15 23:13:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x9c40ec…
05-15 23:09:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	4	61¢	$3	0x25d27e…
05-15 23:08:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x939fd0…
05-15 23:07:42	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	36	3¢	$1	0xfbf3ff…
05-12 21:58:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xcfd7e1…
05-12 21:54:42	Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x1d7006…
05-12 21:54:19	Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x9c1528…
05-12 20:35:31	Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	92	11¢	$10	0xe6a382…
05-12 18:56:51	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	No	BUY	96	42¢	$40	0xf851ee…
05-12 18:18:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	116	91¢	$106	0xf1b767…
05-12 18:06:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xad00ef…
05-12 17:43:43	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x8a3a56…
05-12 17:41:23	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0xe77271…
05-05 22:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x971a05…
05-05 06:13:20	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	SELL	187	20¢	$37	0xc23b6e…
05-03 21:19:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	151	79¢	$119	0x6dd858…
05-03 20:56:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	43	56¢	$24	0x5adf68…
05-03 17:29:12	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	BUY	187	11¢	$20	0xe0cacc…
05-02 17:22:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	105	98¢	$102	0x346ba5…
04-30 08:40:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	55¢	$24	0xeaf380…
04-29 22:55:48	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	151	73¢	$110	0x62ab37…
04-29 22:04:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xc2750f…
04-29 20:01:38	Will Powell say "Job" 15+ times during April press conference?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x251084…
04-29 19:48:24	James Comey arrested by April 29?	Yes	SELL	111	100¢	$111	0x714bb9…
04-29 19:48:04	James Comey arrested by April 30?	Yes	SELL	44	99¢	$43	0x46b737…
04-29 19:46:30	Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x60f162…
04-29 15:14:10	James Comey arrested by April 30?	Yes	BUY	44	80¢	$35	0xa9d5ed…
04-29 15:11:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	116	69¢	$80	0x675f3a…
04-29 15:07:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	273	32¢	$87	0xf7c5de…