Realized P&L
-$16.0K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.84K
Hit rate
35.9%
Resolved
11,386
Trades
42,312
lifetime
Volume
$679.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$16
Open exposure
$46.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-07-02
last 11-14 21:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 131 days
Categories
Other
86% 62% -$15,696
Politics
12% 45% -$78
Sports
1% 0% -$205
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 2726 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +15,601 $14,234 100¢ $15.6K +$1,352 11-05 16:22
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%? No +4,203 $3,943 98¢ $4.1K +$187 11-05 09:36
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 45 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No +4,026 $3,333 100¢ $4.0K +$678 11-04 17:20
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +4,431 $2,374 81¢ $3.6K +$1,204 10-29 17:51
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +2,691 $2,401 100¢ $2.7K +$283 11-04 17:28
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +2,557 $2,486 99¢ $2.5K +$44 07-20 15:44
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? No +2,500 $2,246 100¢ $2.5K +$250 11-04 22:26
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more? Yes +2,214 $2,140 98¢ $2.2K +$34 11-04 22:18
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? Yes +1,629 $1,426 100¢ $1.6K +$198 11-04 17:16
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +1,493 $441 64¢ $949 +$508 10-30 02:30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +4,431 $2,120 19¢ $853 -$1,267 10-29 17:51
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026? No +1,186 $900 58¢ $690 -$209 11-07 22:25
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5? No +969 $783 62¢ $606 -$177 10-18 02:37
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,493 $1,075 36¢ $544 -$531 10-30 02:30
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? No +1,162 $504 42¢ $494 -$10 11-07 22:24
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? No +1,036 $263 42¢ $435 +$172 10-18 06:20
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? Yes +742 $607 58¢ $431 -$176 10-13 12:24
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +389 $285 100¢ $387 +$102 11-04 15:14
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? No +415 $330 84¢ $346 +$16 09-23 08:53
Will exactly 7 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No +323 $283 90¢ $292 +$8 09-27 17:09
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No +351 $295 82¢ $288 -$7 10-19 13:57
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5? Yes +675 $148 38¢ $253 +$105 10-18 02:37
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft? No +218 $104 97¢ $212 +$108 10-09 22:44
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No +200 $197 99¢ $198 +$0 10-03 12:00
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No +285 $225 68¢ $192 -$33 10-18 01:13
Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026? No +162 $134 98¢ $159 +$25 10-22 12:56
Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +132 $74 96¢ $126 +$52 10-04 02:29
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30? No +109 $81 100¢ $109 +$27 10-16 13:56
Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +110 $97 98¢ $108 +$10 10-16 14:32
Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? No +316 $211 31¢ $98 -$113 10-09 00:20