Weird-Sensitivity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$112

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

32.6%

Resolved

Trades

622

lifetime

Volume

$36.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$59

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-19 19:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

52% — —

Other

28% — —

Politics

20% 67% $-112

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	120	$6.8K	4,623	3,949	+674	open	—	03-31 13:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	47	$4.6K	5,168	5,867	-699	Yes	$-212	03-02 17:52
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	84	$4.4K	4,697	5,063	-367	open	—	03-21 09:36
will gold gc hit high 5800 by end of february 759 378 429 713 662 579	16	$2.4K	2,110	2,110	+0	open	—	02-26 12:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	37	$2.0K	2,056	1,935	+120	Yes	+$96	04-29 17:30
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	15	$1.3K	1,257	777	+480	open	—	05-08 17:11
will silver si hit low 55 by end of february 998 393 222 319 616 673 571 163	15	$916	500	500	+0	open	—	02-24 11:04
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	12	$894	506	506	+0	open	—	03-17 06:40
will silver si hit low 75 by end of february 739 471 473 237 171 573 124 784	10	$875	1,956	1,956	+0	open	—	02-03 04:47
cbb kenest gnzg 2026 03 19	17	$814	1,400	1,400	+0	open	—	03-20 04:46
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	16	$814	2,175	2,175	+0	open	—	05-14 08:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	3	$774	400	400	+0	open	—	04-05 15:36
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	3	$706	168	566	-398	open	—	06-29 16:01
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	23	$678	1,038	1,038	+0	open	—	03-23 00:12
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	17	$670	368	316	+52	open	—	03-30 08:05
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?	23	$632	498	491	+7	open	—	03-31 21:52
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$524	278	278	+0	open	—	03-30 08:48
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	2	$519	733	0	+733	open	—	04-23 14:26
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$508	300	300	+0	open	—	03-11 13:32
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	9	$494	804	700	+104	open	—	01-16 07:39
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	5	$473	581	581	+0	open	—	03-19 13:52
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$450	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	02-03 05:34
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?	1	$418	0	431	-431	open	—	06-25 06:53
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$355	0	413	-413	open	—	07-10 02:40
will gold gc hit low 4900 by end of february 837 718 553 296 868 122 264 951 762	2	$314	6,678	0	+6,678	open	—	01-30 19:38
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?	3	$304	0	537	-537	open	—	06-09 14:45
Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026?	1	$276	0	288	-288	open	—	07-09 21:33
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	1	$271	350	0	+350	open	—	03-25 03:00
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$253	10,000	9,400	+600	open	—	06-01 23:24
cbb liub arz 2026 03 20	35	$226	6,560	8,200	-1,640	open	—	03-20 15:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 19:53:09	Will BNB dip to $300 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0xeb19cb…
07-10 02:40:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	413	86¢	$355	0x8f8875…
07-09 21:33:40	Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	288	96¢	$276	0xc28abd…
07-09 14:26:41	Will BNB dip to $300 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	95¢	$16	0x95feab…
07-07 11:42:56	will polymarket mindshare hit 90 by december 31 20260630144203050	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x722b92…
07-07 10:55:20	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0xe509d5…
07-07 10:23:52	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Colombia	BUY	131	61¢	$80	0x704170…
07-06 14:28:53	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	United States	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x45d4c3…
07-05 21:43:50	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 team to advance	Norway	SELL	65	74¢	$48	0x12bfc1…
07-05 14:56:17	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	England	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0xb07ca6…
07-05 14:34:52	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 team to advance	Norway	BUY	226	31¢	$70	0x8b03be…
07-01 18:43:44	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Senegal	BUY	98	41¢	$40	0xd371ba…
06-29 16:01:29	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	SELL	398	99¢	$395	0x1f8468…
06-28 01:44:16	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	SELL	168	99¢	$166	0x070bb3…
06-25 06:53:07	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?	No	SELL	431	97¢	$418	0x52c9c2…
06-09 14:45:04	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	184	61¢	$112	0x30b707…
06-07 10:27:39	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0x77324a…
06-07 10:27:10	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	152	56¢	$85	0x64e513…
06-01 23:24:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9,000	1¢	$54	0x719b1c…
06-01 17:19:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x20239a…
06-01 15:35:58	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	400	47¢	$189	0x324089…
05-31 16:44:58	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	228	55¢	$125	0x746c97…
05-31 11:27:13	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	192	48¢	$92	0x885ca5…
05-31 00:39:03	Will BNB dip to $400 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0xb23eca…
05-30 18:56:15	Will BNB dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	154	67¢	$103	0x858d3e…
05-29 09:06:48	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0xeca29e…
05-28 08:08:50	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	BUY	168	86¢	$145	0xf29e6c…
05-14 08:18:32	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	No	SELL	727	4¢	$28	0x73947a…
05-14 08:14:43	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	No	SELL	14	16¢	$2	0x1608c6…
05-14 08:06:28	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	No	SELL	50	12¢	$6	0x8c044c…
05-14 08:05:00	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	No	SELL	1,165	13¢	$152	0x96fbef…
05-11 10:39:15	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	No	SELL	41	26¢	$11	0x42be74…
05-10 16:20:55	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	No	SELL	117	21¢	$25	0x1e838b…
05-08 17:11:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	480	55¢	$264	0x2bd64d…
05-08 12:18:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	69	64¢	$44	0xc88a2c…
05-08 11:44:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0xa836a2…
05-08 11:38:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	157	64¢	$100	0x5db831…
05-08 11:30:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x28d483…
05-08 11:24:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0x6a06b5…
05-08 11:19:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	64¢	$19	0xb0aa34…
05-08 10:24:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xf0a3f2…
05-08 05:59:33	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	277	54¢	$148	0x8fcac0…
05-06 16:53:51	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	198	73¢	$144	0x5c48ed…
05-06 14:26:47	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	76¢	$2	0x87d9be…
05-06 14:12:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	300	76¢	$227	0x4e65c7…
05-05 23:20:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	312	65¢	$204	0xd78c53…
05-05 23:18:42	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xb0b33c…
05-05 23:18:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	88	65¢	$57	0xb8c8bc…
05-04 23:43:12	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May?	Yes	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0x0ad81e…
05-02 08:08:56	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	No	BUY	312	18¢	$56	0x43d70a…
04-30 16:26:40	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	No	SELL	500	6¢	$28	0xb89658…
04-29 17:30:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	526	52¢	$273	0x10ce38…
04-29 04:40:00	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	No	BUY	14	15¢	$2	0x76ecf9…
04-23 17:28:20	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	50¢	$200	0x51a425…
04-23 14:26:34	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	433	61¢	$264	0x989747…
04-23 14:25:44	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	No	BUY	500	22¢	$110	0xac1d07…
04-09 20:45:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0xc73d29…
04-09 20:45:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	251	52¢	$130	0x052721…
04-09 18:33:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	35	39¢	$14	0x116f5d…
04-09 18:18:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xfc2384…
04-09 18:13:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x3a1053…
04-09 16:55:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	202	40¢	$81	0x1eb259…
04-09 16:16:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x92ecf2…
04-09 09:26:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	52¢	$3	0x4c2dbb…
04-09 09:26:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x50eea0…
04-09 04:45:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x1021de…
04-09 01:13:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x4da9f1…
04-09 01:12:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x2fb44c…
04-08 23:32:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	52¢	$10	0x432629…
04-08 21:11:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	52¢	$10	0x45e8a9…
04-08 21:10:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	38	52¢	$20	0x703dcb…
04-08 20:04:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xa668da…
04-08 19:31:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	97	52¢	$50	0x9af1d1…
04-08 17:07:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	52¢	$4	0x88ffc7…
04-08 12:16:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	31	50¢	$15	0xd333db…
04-08 12:05:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	27	52¢	$14	0x328e07…
04-08 10:05:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	82	50¢	$41	0x0cf40b…
04-08 08:48:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb11605…
04-08 06:57:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	97	50¢	$48	0xa0db95…
04-08 05:24:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x02eaa0…
04-08 02:25:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	52¢	$0	0xd1bbc1…
04-07 23:40:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0x079e8a…
04-07 23:14:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	23	52¢	$12	0x4eb80c…
04-07 22:58:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	202	52¢	$105	0xe9514d…
04-07 21:52:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	77	52¢	$40	0x06d6b7…
04-07 17:46:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	700	50¢	$350	0xbca9e9…
04-05 15:36:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	400	97¢	$387	0xda52c2…
04-05 15:24:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	90	97¢	$87	0x40ec3c…
04-05 15:24:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	310	97¢	$300	0x257a40…
04-05 06:45:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	37¢	$14	0x1984af…
04-03 22:23:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xcb320f…
04-03 14:48:01	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	25¢	$248	0xde76c5…
04-03 09:49:31	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?	No	BUY	89	18¢	$16	0x4e954b…
04-02 16:07:01	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by June 30?	No	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x9615d3…
04-02 16:06:57	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by June 30?	No	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xc04940…
04-02 16:06:57	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by June 30?	No	BUY	175	9¢	$16	0x7018e8…
04-02 14:20:57	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by June 30?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x49419a…
04-02 14:17:55	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by June 30?	No	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x6d362e…
04-02 14:17:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x05af69…
04-02 12:04:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xc11fcb…