Simple-Crest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$334

Unrealized P&L

-$230

Hit rate

58.4%

Resolved

113

Trades

262

lifetime

Volume

$9.01K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$186

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 11-04 06:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Politics

50% 34% +$680

Other

33% 39% -$81

Crypto

10% 22% -$52

Sports

4% 15% -$86

Tech

2% 0% -$127

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	-126	-$74	90¢	$-114	-$40	05-07 06:32
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	+1,014	$199	2¢	$25	-$173	11-04 06:53
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+43	$29	33¢	$14	-$15	11-04 06:52
Rippling IPO before 2027?	Yes	-284	-$34	4¢	$-12	+$23	05-16 19:03
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+213	$17	4¢	$9	-$8	11-03 00:21
Deel IPO before 2027?	No	-7	-$6	99¢	$-7	-$2	05-16 19:03
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-53	-$17	6¢	$-3	+$14	05-07 06:33
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	+733	$30	0¢	$1	-$29	11-03 05:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	8	$837	653	653	+0	No	+$445	11-03 01:43
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	6	$718	2,004	2,004	+0	open	—	10-06 04:44
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	14	$555	944	861	+83	Yes	+$520	02-28 23:21
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	12	$403	1,062	1,062	+0	open	—	11-04 06:52
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$342	192	192	+0	Yes	+$35	03-09 02:54
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$298	212	212	+0	Yes	-$2	02-19 05:54
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	4	$254	261	218	+43	open	—	11-04 06:52
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	10	$247	1,796	782	+1,014	open	—	11-04 06:53
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	2	$224	200	200	+0	No	-$16	03-09 02:54
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	3	$203	167	167	+0	No	+$3	10-31 01:58
avgo quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 04 2026 2pt02	1	$200	215	0	+215	Yes	+$15	03-02 00:35
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	2	$187	1,205	1,205	+0	open	—	05-16 19:02
will solana dip to 90 in february 2026	2	$178	110	110	+0	Yes	+$40	02-05 06:35
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?	2	$171	228	0	+228	Yes	+$57	02-19 05:55
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	2	$153	114	114	+0	Yes	+$3	10-31 02:00
cbb gnzg stmry 2026 02 28	1	$142	249	0	+249	Saint Mary's Gaels	-$142	02-28 23:18
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	3	$140	167	26	+141	$80k	-$99	02-23 04:51
amd quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 03 2026 1pt32	2	$135	155	0	+155	Yes	+$20	02-01 04:41
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	2	$128	103	103	+0	Yes	+$68	02-01 04:35
will trump say gold card or trump card during the 2026 state of the union address 876	2	$113	113	56	+56	No	+$31	02-25 03:33
will solana dip to 70 in march 2026	3	$108	200	200	+0	No	-$76	03-18 05:17
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$107	102	102	+0	Yes	+$19	02-19 05:48
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	3	$106	318	318	+0	open	—	10-06 04:44
crwd quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 03 2026 1pt1	1	$106	125	0	+125	Yes	+$19	03-02 00:34
will bitcoin dip to 75k in february 2026 685 423	2	$105	163	82	+82	Yes	+$86	02-01 04:40
pdd quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 19 2026 3pt06	2	$97	65	65	+0	No	-$3	03-20 21:40
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	4	$90	415	415	+0	open	—	10-06 04:44
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$89	72	72	+0	Yes	-$5	02-28 23:16
will super bowl lx be the most viewed super bowl ever	1	$85	124	0	+124	No	-$85	02-08 22:10
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	5	$85	556	0	+556	No	-$85	02-05 06:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 06:53:07	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	232	6¢	$13	0x8e094e…
11-04 06:52:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	33	16¢	$5	0xc74b6a…
11-04 06:52:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	128	54¢	$69	0xd51771…
11-04 06:51:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0x01bba8…
11-04 06:50:43	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	SELL	782	3¢	$24	0xed64d8…
11-03 05:39:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	398	15¢	$59	0xaf012e…
11-03 05:39:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	BUY	219	5¢	$10	0xb39fb5…
11-03 05:36:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	162	57¢	$93	0x5d107b…
11-03 05:36:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	BUY	245	4¢	$10	0xa0a249…
11-03 05:35:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	SELL	531	17¢	$92	0xe96841…
11-03 05:35:24	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	BUY	268	4¢	$10	0x3299bf…
11-03 05:34:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	175	12¢	$21	0x070f58…
11-03 05:34:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	256	4¢	$10	0xf09b86…
11-03 01:43:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	327	98¢	$321	0xb52542…
11-03 01:42:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	327	98¢	$320	0x1780b7…
11-03 00:21:52	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	204	4¢	$8	0xa5bf53…
10-31 02:09:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0x081b4d…
10-31 02:08:49	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	156	14¢	$22	0x72137c…
10-31 02:07:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	136	14¢	$19	0xfcf443…
10-31 02:07:16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	252	22¢	$55	0xe4bc71…
10-31 02:06:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0xdc2204…
10-31 02:06:37	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0xd886ed…
10-31 02:06:19	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	536	14¢	$75	0x455fc1…
10-31 02:05:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	83	30¢	$25	0x9e298f…
10-31 02:02:04	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	80	30¢	$24	0xe59f44…
10-31 02:01:43	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0x616b82…
10-31 02:01:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	179	14¢	$25	0xc6b6c6…
10-31 02:01:19	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	192	13¢	$25	0x2b0dee…
10-31 02:00:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x09bbb8…
10-31 02:00:27	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	114	69¢	$78	0x0c7450…
10-31 01:59:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x47795b…
10-31 01:59:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	277	30¢	$83	0xa255e6…
10-31 01:58:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	125	62¢	$78	0xbeb33f…
10-31 01:58:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	42	62¢	$26	0xe4cf8c…
10-31 01:57:16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xc97f2c…
10-31 01:57:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	59	22¢	$13	0x7a42d3…
10-31 01:56:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	90	48¢	$43	0x86ef91…
10-31 01:56:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xcfde90…
10-31 01:56:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	81	22¢	$18	0xa5d479…
10-31 01:55:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	SELL	208	11¢	$23	0xd20c7d…
10-31 01:55:25	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0x4c81dd…
10-31 01:55:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	192	13¢	$25	0xe6e7bb…
10-31 01:30:46	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	208	12¢	$25	0x027c9f…
10-31 01:29:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	238	21¢	$50	0x8e9534…
10-31 01:27:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	99	50¢	$49	0xb1f75a…
10-31 01:26:43	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	156	16¢	$25	0x95003b…
10-31 01:26:10	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	417	6¢	$25	0x69e151…
10-08 15:27:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x9ace12…
10-06 04:48:58	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	114	66¢	$75	0x07ae48…
10-06 04:48:24	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	250	10¢	$25	0xde2a3d…
10-06 04:44:57	Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	SELL	468	2¢	$11	0x6a78b0…
10-06 04:44:51	Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	SELL	318	20¢	$65	0xfd8b57…
10-06 04:44:46	Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	SELL	415	16¢	$65	0x75ac80…
10-06 04:44:37	Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,004	15¢	$301	0x0a85ab…
05-16 20:04:07	Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	BUY	176	26¢	$45	0xe39b22…
05-16 20:03:39	Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	BUY	119	6¢	$7	0xe8132f…
05-16 20:03:33	Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	BUY	78	6¢	$5	0x78c62c…
05-16 20:03:21	Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0x7304f2…
05-16 20:02:37	Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x7fe983…
05-16 20:01:50	Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	BUY	349	5¢	$19	0xc0a636…
05-16 20:00:51	Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	BUY	302	13¢	$39	0x37e2d7…
05-16 20:00:17	Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	BUY	198	23¢	$46	0xea0049…
05-16 19:59:09	Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	BUY	795	21¢	$166	0x24126d…
05-16 19:58:50	Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xacedf7…
05-16 19:05:41	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	170	4¢	$7	0x5ff31d…
05-16 19:05:01	Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	BUY	169	6¢	$10	0x8a2f55…
05-16 19:04:44	Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	BUY	795	19¢	$150	0x3e925b…
05-16 19:03:49	Glean IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$6	0x9a1d08…
05-16 19:03:37	Rippling IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	284	12¢	$34	0xa6d3aa…
05-16 19:03:25	Deel IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0xf41221…
05-16 19:02:32	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,205	7¢	$87	0x0f3b5d…
05-07 06:33:43	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,205	8¢	$100	0x12781e…
05-07 06:33:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	32¢	$17	0xfaa5d8…
05-07 06:32:51	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	126	59¢	$74	0xbc343c…
03-29 04:10:32	will openai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	No	BUY	421	4¢	$15	0xd9e2db…
03-29 04:04:20	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	180	8¢	$15	0x39541e…
03-29 04:00:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	263	2¢	$5	0x30beab…
03-29 03:59:18	sp 500 breaks its losing streak this week	Yes	SELL	98	40¢	$39	0x2c7673…
03-29 03:58:24	sp 500 breaks its losing streak this week	Yes	BUY	98	41¢	$40	0x7159d1…
03-29 03:56:06	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xccd0e4…
03-29 03:54:30	israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	129	39¢	$50	0xc35390…
03-20 21:40:55	pdd quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 19 2026 3pt06	Yes	SELL	65	73¢	$47	0xb685fe…
03-18 05:21:21	pdd quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 19 2026 3pt06	Yes	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0xbbd8a5…
03-18 05:17:21	will solana dip to 70 in march 2026	Yes	SELL	200	8¢	$16	0x4f3129…
03-09 02:58:15	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	Yes	SELL	109	25¢	$27	0x9f8aca…
03-09 02:55:55	ndx up or down on march 9 2026	Down	SELL	51	90¢	$46	0x1cef05…
03-09 02:55:03	will solana dip to 70 in march 2026	Yes	BUY	91	46¢	$42	0x05f81c…
03-09 02:54:41	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	192	98¢	$188	0x159750…
03-09 02:54:23	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0xb7d553…
03-08 04:01:27	ndx up or down on march 9 2026	Down	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0x8d1091…
03-07 22:39:49	will bitcoin dip to 64k march 2 8	Yes	BUY	156	16¢	$25	0xe7e6cb…
03-07 22:39:13	will solana dip to 70 march 2 8	Yes	BUY	148	3¢	$5	0x4d3737…
03-07 22:39:01	will solana dip to 70 march 2 8	Yes	BUY	482	4¢	$20	0x5f5a03…
03-07 22:38:17	solana above 80 on march 8	No	BUY	112	18¢	$20	0xf26442…
03-07 22:36:25	will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	217	23¢	$50	0x01a90b…
03-07 22:35:45	will solana dip to 70 in march 2026	Yes	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x94e628…
03-07 02:42:33	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	192	80¢	$153	0xfb18cf…
03-07 02:40:13	will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	No	BUY	173	29¢	$50	0x1c7719…
03-07 02:37:37	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0xc854f0…
03-02 00:35:27	avgo quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 04 2026 2pt02	Yes	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0x539fb8…