Courteous-Jaguar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$973

Unrealized P&L

-$73

Hit rate

42.3%

Resolved

161

Trades

730

lifetime

Volume

$69.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$94

Open exposure

$156

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 10:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Other

80% 39% -$471

Crypto

7% 67% +$55

Politics

7% 43% -$44

Sports

6% 34% -$256

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$208

Tech

0% 0% -$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	+136	$100	88¢	$120	+$20	10-27 10:59
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	+306	$108	10¢	$31	-$77	10-27 10:58
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	+34	$21	14¢	$5	-$16	05-23 13:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	14	$4.4K	2,289	2,289	+0	No	+$3	02-12 21:47
cbb hpnt ark 2026 03 21 total 168pt5	32	$4.1K	4,165	4,161	+4	Over	-$36	03-21 15:37
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	7	$3.7K	2,147	1,640	+507	No	+$7	01-07 19:31
cbb uk iowast 2026 03 22 total 146pt5	24	$3.5K	3,451	3,451	+0	Under	-$15	03-22 13:53
cbb ucla uconn 2026 03 22 spread home 4pt5	9	$3.0K	3,012	3,012	+0	Connecticut Huskies	$0	03-22 11:01
will zachxbt release his investigation on february 27	20	$2.3K	3,640	3,640	+0	No	+$1	02-25 21:55
cbb tx pur 2026 03 26 spread home 7pt5	4	$2.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	Texas Longhorns	-$10	03-25 22:06
cbb vcu ill 2026 03 21 total 151pt5	13	$2.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	Under	$0	03-21 02:41
cbb ill hou 2026 03 26 spread home 3pt5	6	$1.9K	2,000	2,000	+0	Illinois Fighting Illini	-$10	03-25 19:49
will hyperliquid be accused of insider trading	13	$1.7K	900	900	+0	No	+$9	02-23 18:57
Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$1.6K	1,569	0	+1,569	No	+$2	01-20 13:54
cbb txam hou 2026 03 21 total 142pt5	14	$1.6K	1,591	1,591	+0	Over	$0	03-20 22:00
nflx above 20 on january 30 2026	1	$1.4K	1,451	0	+1,451	Yes	+$1	01-25 11:28
footballfun fdv above 1b one day after launch 116 586 393 244	1	$1.4K	1,441	0	+1,441	No	+$6	01-14 14:47
cbb stjohn kan 2026 03 22 total 144pt5	4	$1.4K	1,447	1,447	+0	Under	+$0	03-22 14:00
will opensea be accused of insider trading	20	$1.4K	700	700	+0	No	+$0	02-23 18:28
ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 bay1	2	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$0	04-15 14:44
Over $7M committed to the Fabric public sale?	1	$1.0K	1,044	0	+1,044	No	+$1	02-02 12:00
spx up or down on january 6 2026	12	$1.0K	850	645	+205	Up	+$15	01-06 15:46
will pumpfun be accused of insider trading	28	$1.0K	700	560	+140	No	+$31	02-23 18:56
cbb txtech ala 2026 03 22 total 164pt5	3	$1000	1,000	1,000	+0	Under	-$20	03-22 21:52
cbb ala mich 2026 03 27 total 172pt5	9	$990	1,000	1,000	+0	Under	-$10	03-26 17:32
cbb niowa stjohn 2026 03 20 total 132pt5	2	$990	1,000	1,000	+0	Under	-$10	03-20 19:52
cbb ill hou 2026 03 26 spread home 2pt5	2	$990	1,000	1,000	+0	Illinois Fighting Illini	-$10	03-27 00:55
nba dal phx 2026 04 08 total 230pt5	9	$972	1,032	1,032	+0	Under	-$40	04-08 22:13
cbb ucla uconn 2026 03 22 total 137pt5	4	$970	1,000	1,000	+0	Under	-$10	03-22 06:18
cbb tenn vir 2026 03 22	4	$960	1,000	1,000	+0	Tennessee Volunteers	+$0	03-21 14:55
cbb iowa clmsn 2026 03 20 total 129pt5	3	$950	1,000	1,000	+0	Under	-$30	03-20 15:35
cbb iowa clmsn 2026 03 20 total 128pt5	2	$940	1,000	1,000	+0	Under	-$20	03-20 13:41
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	17	$936	1,062	1,062	+0	Yes	-$4	01-11 16:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 10:59:20	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	136	73¢	$100	0x281074…
10-27 10:58:29	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x7d9c7d…
10-21 19:03:18	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	44	18¢	$8	0xc90d81…
09-02 22:03:46	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	192	22¢	$41	0x4e534c…
08-31 12:24:16	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	Yes	SELL	70	34¢	$24	0xd95099…
08-26 08:08:09	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x9f2afa…
08-26 08:07:55	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	53	22¢	$11	0x095a4d…
08-26 08:07:36	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	250	78¢	$196	0x6d5da7…
08-23 06:14:42	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	150	28¢	$42	0xd0c85b…
08-23 05:59:19	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xb5b228…
08-23 05:03:06	No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x16f844…
08-23 03:22:27	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xc9e5f4…
08-23 03:22:27	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x712bdf…
08-23 03:19:18	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	24	72¢	$17	0xfc34a9…
08-23 03:19:01	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	46	72¢	$33	0x318990…
08-23 03:18:40	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0xead2b4…
08-23 03:18:39	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x1bcdd4…
08-22 11:02:00	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	Yes	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0xe380b9…
08-22 10:20:03	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xbd835e…
08-22 10:20:03	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x16089f…
08-22 10:19:58	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x3d5c2d…
08-12 09:33:24	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	Yes	BUY	115	13¢	$15	0xea20f5…
08-12 09:33:09	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	56	62¢	$35	0xaaa429…
08-12 09:30:40	will paulo dybala attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630266	No	BUY	85	94¢	$80	0x66bd80…
08-12 09:26:37	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	68	66¢	$45	0x65028e…
07-15 21:22:10	will michael olise score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x651cd6…
07-15 21:21:26	will marcus thuram score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	247	3¢	$7	0xf70b30…
07-10 13:53:44	will nico williams score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x7446ec…
07-08 10:58:29	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?	Yes	BUY	92	16¢	$15	0x5fc212…
07-08 10:58:13	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?	Yes	BUY	68	22¢	$15	0xa5ab07…
07-08 10:58:07	Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?	Yes	BUY	94	16¢	$15	0x7c2c86…
07-05 13:20:07	will nico williams score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	165	6¢	$10	0x62d521…
07-05 13:18:01	will weston mckennie score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	66	73¢	$48	0xd154df…
06-29 10:49:47	will brazil reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134475	No	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x4bafe9…
06-29 10:39:34	will morocco reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134476	Yes	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0x349992…
06-28 10:59:56	will brazil reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134475	No	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x3244e5…
06-28 10:59:49	will germany reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134483	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0xe7484c…
06-28 10:57:38	will weston mckennie score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	66	53¢	$35	0xf5f17e…
06-28 10:52:35	will ecuador reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120752	Yes	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0xc5c66f…
06-28 10:52:14	will belgium reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120759	Yes	SELL	82	60¢	$49	0xce77d7…
06-28 10:37:14	will usa reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134479	No	BUY	206	53¢	$110	0xaffa94…
06-28 10:36:28	will morocco reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134476	Yes	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0x7a7711…
06-28 10:35:58	will morocco reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120744	Yes	SELL	133	36¢	$48	0x995a9a…
06-23 12:45:34	will marcus thuram score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	247	10¢	$25	0x13c61a…
06-23 12:41:37	will charles de ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	SELL	150	35¢	$52	0xd0442b…
06-10 20:08:28	Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	90	78¢	$70	0x1d4293…
06-10 20:07:57	Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x811e5b…
06-10 20:07:39	Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x98f310…
06-10 20:03:10	Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0xc7f5fd…
06-10 19:59:01	world cup messi to score 2 penalties 20260605004829032	No	BUY	37	40¢	$15	0x141db3…
06-10 19:57:55	Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x3ee1e1…
06-10 19:55:48	will nico williams score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	76	66¢	$50	0x5be8eb…
06-10 19:48:13	Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	333	67¢	$223	0x05b3a8…
06-10 19:45:58	Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	67	51¢	$34	0xba66ac…
06-10 19:45:49	Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	61	56¢	$34	0x8035c6…
06-10 19:40:25	Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?	No	SELL	61	89¢	$55	0xc9e531…
06-08 19:35:09	Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	59	59¢	$35	0x7c9f0e…
06-08 19:34:49	Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	BUY	71	52¢	$37	0xafa0a0…
06-08 19:29:42	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	48	96¢	$46	0x7dfe41…
06-08 19:29:09	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,573	2¢	$30	0xf6a264…
06-08 14:18:43	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,573	2¢	$30	0xca5f08…
06-06 11:10:43	will belgium reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120759	Yes	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0xa58da7…
06-06 11:07:39	will turkiye reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120750	Yes	BUY	84	45¢	$38	0xe1842a…
06-06 10:47:15	will belgium reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120759	Yes	SELL	50	60¢	$30	0xf46d5a…
06-06 10:46:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	56	26¢	$14	0x0b1905…
06-06 10:46:31	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	110	18¢	$20	0xfb7fa3…
06-06 10:46:01	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xd59e02…
06-05 02:24:58	Will Harry Kane win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0xd7c690…
06-04 18:31:25	Will Harry Kane win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x686f6f…
06-04 14:21:40	Will Raphinha win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x50ba3c…
06-04 14:21:40	Will Harry Kane win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x1075e2…
06-04 14:21:39	Will Harry Kane win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x3d4b5f…
06-04 14:21:39	Will Raphinha win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x3d2f33…
06-04 11:02:52	Will England win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	39	13¢	$5	0xfca84d…
06-04 11:02:40	Will Brazil win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x3e6ce9…
06-03 16:34:21	Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	400	50¢	$200	0x77cc1a…
06-03 16:30:09	Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xb22ab9…
06-03 16:29:42	will hakan alhanolu score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	21	60¢	$13	0x44edd2…
06-02 21:41:02	Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	17	43¢	$7	0xb062b4…
06-02 18:35:46	Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	71	49¢	$35	0x69b735…
06-02 18:35:15	Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	154	68¢	$105	0x1d349c…
06-02 17:57:51	Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	59	46¢	$27	0xa117e9…
06-02 17:52:41	Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	109	32¢	$35	0x8b7279…
06-02 13:32:42	Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xe4f98e…
06-02 13:32:42	Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x4980d5…
06-02 13:31:28	Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0xf82510…
06-02 13:31:21	Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0xcec998…
06-02 13:31:20	Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$3	0x86f442…
06-02 13:31:20	Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x821f46…
06-02 12:57:31	Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$3	0x95e85b…
06-02 12:57:30	Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$3	0xb6309a…
06-02 12:57:30	Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x62bae9…
06-02 12:45:48	Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0xe82a9f…
06-02 12:45:48	Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	11	40¢	$4	0x74f00f…
06-02 12:07:20	Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	282	71¢	$200	0xecf263…
06-02 12:05:26	Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	35¢	$14	0x2bca17…
06-02 11:56:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	147	99¢	$145	0x86f505…
06-02 11:36:14	Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x30cab1…
06-02 11:32:35	Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	110	50¢	$55	0x40ca86…
06-01 12:56:20	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xaea7d4…