Dangerous-Sense — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$44

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,713

lifetime

Volume

$79.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$46

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-01

last 08-17 11:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

97% 0% $-44

Other

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 235 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	306	$22.6K	156,417	126,195	+30,221	open	—	06-17 19:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	79	$10.1K	17,147	18,009	-862	open	—	06-17 18:13
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	91	$5.4K	133,464	92,114	+41,350	open	—	06-17 21:46
iran closes its airspace by june 8	25	$3.7K	13,165	2,665	+10,500	open	—	06-08 20:07
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	23	$3.3K	3,794	3,794	+0	open	—	04-08 22:14
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	37	$3.0K	2,432	2,432	+0	open	—	04-16 15:49
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	94	$2.8K	18,264	17,226	+1,038	open	—	04-15 23:32
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	4	$2.7K	3,103	3,103	+0	open	—	06-12 14:02
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	14	$2.5K	2,190	2,190	+0	open	—	04-16 15:42
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	4	$2.1K	1,898	1,898	+0	open	—	06-14 21:16
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	71	$1.9K	37,410	34,076	+3,333	open	—	06-18 22:01
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	68	$1.4K	4,221	4,221	+0	open	—	04-29 11:06
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	27	$1.2K	2,087	2,087	+0	open	—	06-17 17:58
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	34	$1.2K	4,999	4,999	+0	open	—	04-28 09:52
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	23	$1.1K	3,087	3,087	+0	open	—	04-27 01:49
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	47	$1.1K	3,666	3,666	+0	open	—	06-21 16:05
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	90	$908	48,461	47,774	+688	open	—	06-17 21:00
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	42	$882	294,204	57,801	+236,403	open	—	04-30 19:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	14	$879	1,411	1,411	+0	open	—	04-19 14:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	29	$740	1,949	2,020	-71	open	—	05-29 19:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	21	$701	1,743	1,743	+0	open	—	04-28 19:03
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	77	$700	44,282	13,714	+30,567	open	—	06-19 00:26
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	13	$609	1,594	1,594	+0	open	—	06-17 15:34
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	30	$601	2,938	2,896	+42	open	—	07-15 10:21
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	8	$461	703	703	+0	open	—	04-08 17:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	16	$439	571	571	+0	open	—	04-07 23:07
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	17	$423	6,804	4,537	+2,266	open	—	06-21 18:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	37	$338	3,450	1,892	+1,559	open	—	05-22 18:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	14	$294	1,613	550	+1,064	open	—	05-25 21:52
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	26	$286	3,900	3,900	+0	open	—	06-19 18:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-17 11:24:49	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xb19317…
08-17 11:24:36	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	274	18¢	$50	0x7c0209…
08-17 10:10:09	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x7cf414…
08-17 10:09:54	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xf7acd9…
08-17 10:08:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	520	1¢	$6	0xa409df…
08-11 13:55:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	127	5¢	$7	0x7f2db2…
08-11 11:23:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	2,390	0¢	$7	0x42e5ce…
08-06 14:48:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	35	17¢	$6	0x40c8a8…
08-06 14:48:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xf8759f…
08-06 14:48:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	167	18¢	$30	0xd3dbee…
08-06 14:48:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	1,336	2¢	$30	0x42ac5f…
08-04 15:58:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	192	5¢	$10	0x7393d8…
08-03 19:11:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	143	3¢	$5	0xa662b9…
08-03 18:36:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	156	3¢	$5	0xe2e24d…
08-03 18:23:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	133	15¢	$20	0xc78b34…
08-03 18:09:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	BUY	312	3¢	$10	0x9b5d23…
08-03 18:08:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	57	14¢	$8	0xde4c02…
08-01 16:43:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	32	25¢	$8	0xa2ee04…
08-01 16:43:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	SELL	226	4¢	$8	0x31981f…
08-01 13:54:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x5bd54c…
08-01 13:43:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	27	26¢	$7	0x5cd3a5…
08-01 13:43:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	78	13¢	$10	0x445cef…
08-01 13:43:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xdaeaa0…
08-01 13:43:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	79	13¢	$10	0x4a0a12…
08-01 13:42:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	99	10¢	$10	0x91695e…
08-01 13:33:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	125	11¢	$14	0xd15a9e…
08-01 13:33:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xeeaf98…
08-01 13:33:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	57	24¢	$14	0xefd053…
08-01 12:45:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	No	BUY	61	8¢	$5	0xb6ff83…
08-01 12:45:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0x91a994…
08-01 12:31:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	39	79¢	$31	0x153747…
07-31 22:10:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	39	69¢	$27	0x76d7ba…
07-31 22:10:47	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	88	31¢	$27	0xe62f8f…
07-31 21:59:50	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	88	40¢	$35	0xb0203c…
07-19 18:16:51	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x891ed4…
07-19 18:15:42	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	78	36¢	$28	0xe2c7d6…
07-18 19:02:49	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x2a15d4…
07-18 19:02:45	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xd50a06…
07-18 19:02:40	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xbd0013…
07-18 19:02:34	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0x247af2…
07-15 10:21:07	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0xaf8a5a…
07-14 15:50:47	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	416	4¢	$17	0xddbb30…
07-14 10:42:28	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	153	6¢	$9	0x52a835…
07-14 09:30:22	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	263	4¢	$10	0x8ce686…
07-14 07:14:11	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	579	3¢	$18	0xe9db6c…
07-13 18:58:31	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	237	11¢	$26	0xa3e531…
07-13 18:58:11	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	168	16¢	$26	0xa9164e…
07-13 17:32:58	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x746f6f…
07-13 16:54:13	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	342	9¢	$30	0x079c02…
07-13 16:38:26	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	168	18¢	$30	0x97f9ca…
07-13 15:07:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	27	26¢	$7	0x4109f8…
07-13 15:06:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0x4849b2…
07-13 15:06:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0x1122d1…
07-13 14:37:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	116	15¢	$17	0x66bf3c…
07-13 13:08:25	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	319	5¢	$17	0x196fe0…
07-13 07:55:37	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	150	8¢	$12	0xd3a044…
07-13 07:55:02	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	192	6¢	$12	0x12603e…
07-13 07:41:53	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	169	6¢	$11	0xf26825…
07-13 07:41:38	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	192	6¢	$12	0x864133…
07-12 16:46:05	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	64	9¢	$6	0xe4b8ef…
07-12 16:29:16	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	SELL	882	1¢	$6	0x161c77…
07-12 15:22:14	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	108	9¢	$10	0x17214a…
07-12 15:21:47	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	294	2¢	$5	0xf341f3…
07-12 15:19:55	iran commits not to attack ships in hormuz by sunday 20260710215434348	Yes	BUY	588	2¢	$10	0xa4fff9…
07-12 15:18:38	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	213	9¢	$20	0xeabab7…
07-11 23:54:52	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	337	10¢	$32	0x7a99f2…
07-11 23:40:50	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x2779a8…
07-11 23:36:58	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	170	18¢	$30	0x780b39…
07-11 23:34:46	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	148	17¢	$25	0xf70f50…
07-10 21:03:50	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x933246…
07-10 20:55:50	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 spread home 1pt5	Spain	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xb327b0…
07-10 20:38:50	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	26	74¢	$19	0x12a745…
07-10 11:28:58	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	231	8¢	$19	0xf7eeaf…
07-10 04:57:10	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	SELL	291	5¢	$16	0xcfbfa2…
07-09 18:24:08	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	89	17¢	$15	0x735b8d…
07-09 13:37:01	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	142	14¢	$20	0x084b72…
07-09 11:44:04	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	Yes	BUY	291	7¢	$20	0x34a879…
07-09 07:04:13	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	431	13¢	$55	0x0f638c…
07-08 19:54:59	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	179	20¢	$35	0x3a4055…
07-08 16:56:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	SELL	160	22¢	$35	0x6367ce…
07-08 14:49:14	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	43	14¢	$6	0xd8e166…
07-08 14:49:08	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	72	14¢	$10	0x407791…
07-08 14:12:29	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	136	15¢	$20	0xfbbf37…
07-08 14:11:43	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	SELL	160	22¢	$35	0x53f2d3…
07-08 14:00:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	BUY	320	25¢	$80	0xf7b81a…
07-08 14:00:37	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	SELL	519	16¢	$81	0x0d0832…
07-08 12:45:58	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	44	23¢	$10	0x8744e1…
07-08 12:45:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xd3f88c…
07-08 12:29:46	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	186	14¢	$27	0xb07b5d…
07-08 12:28:02	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	SELL	130	21¢	$27	0xa06f1b…
07-08 11:51:07	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x68049b…
07-08 11:50:47	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	BUY	75	27¢	$20	0x2ed88c…
07-08 09:35:25	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	98	15¢	$15	0x2d2221…
07-08 09:26:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x274a2e…
07-08 09:25:41	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	136	15¢	$20	0xb83792…
07-08 09:24:14	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	Yes	BUY	54	13¢	$7	0x1050d6…
06-24 16:29:43	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	No	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x992acd…
06-24 16:29:26	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	SELL	93	2¢	$2	0x8aea4a…
06-23 09:23:20	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	93	3¢	$3	0x30e3ef…
06-21 18:56:35	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,312	1¢	$26	0xb1668f…