Last-Era — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$553

Unrealized P&L

-$63

Hit rate

70.8%

Resolved

410

Trades

736

lifetime

Volume

$13.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$241

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-04 07:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 188 days

Categories

Other

67% 70% +$21

Sports

16% 49% +$265

Politics

13% 75% +$265

Crypto

4% 53% -$16

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-105	-$91	97¢	$-102	-$11	05-15 17:13
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	-100	-$96	99¢	$-99	-$2	05-01 07:53
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+205	$62	18¢	$36	-$26	07-22 14:19
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+150	$28	3¢	$4	-$24	09-18 17:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	21	$1.1K	0	5,080	-5,080	No	+$1,052	07-15 19:41
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	16	$676	993	843	+150	open	—	09-18 17:53
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$344	200	200	+0	No	+$4	02-11 13:31
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$300	200	200	+0	No	+$0	03-19 15:19
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	7	$265	405	205	+200	No	-$82	07-24 15:30
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	5	$261	251	251	+0	Yes	+$3	07-28 21:46
spx opens up or down on february 13 2026	4	$256	200	200	+0	Up	+$58	02-13 16:37
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	42	$235	205	205	+0	No	+$1	07-05 15:28
amzn close above 205 on february 19 2026	3	$227	256	256	+0	No	+$27	02-19 16:13
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$210	420	215	+205	No	-$71	07-12 08:16
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$208	200	200	+0	Yes	+$190	04-08 08:46
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 24?	2	$196	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	07-24 07:50
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$196	211	211	+0	Yes	-$44	08-12 07:46
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 26?	3	$186	102	102	+0	Yes	+$0	07-26 06:09
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	3	$181	105	105	+0	No	+$1	08-31 20:48
will bitcoin reach 62pt5k in july 2026	5	$180	105	105	+0	Yes	+$12	07-03 10:44
spy up or down on july 6 2026	1	$154	205	0	+205	Up	+$51	07-06 12:28
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	2	$152	200	200	+0	No	+$16	02-08 11:35
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$122	50	700	-650	Yes	-$548	07-13 13:43
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$110	1,000	200	+800	No	-$84	07-02 15:14
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	1	$105	148	0	+148	Yes	+$43	07-01 06:06
donald trump of truth social posts february 10 february 17 100 119	5	$104	125	125	+0	No	+$4	02-15 10:15
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	3	$100	104	104	+0	open	—	09-01 14:51
ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 atm1	2	$100	100	0	+100	Yes	+$0	04-08 20:52
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	2	$96	0	100	-100	open	—	05-01 07:53
wti up or down on july 20 2026	2	$96	200	0	+200	Up	+$104	07-20 09:29
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 19?	2	$96	105	0	+105	Yes	+$9	07-19 09:12
ma quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 30 2026 4pt77	3	$94	51	51	+0	Yes	+$0	07-30 11:18
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$91	0	105	-105	open	—	05-15 17:13
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$91	205	205	+0	No	+$3	07-15 19:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 07:05:05	Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	No	SELL	25	48¢	$12	0xf0e6b1…
10-04 07:05:05	Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	Yes	SELL	25	52¢	$13	0xc0b387…
10-03 18:03:14	Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	No	BUY	25	58¢	$14	0xe7a8f6…
10-03 17:50:29	Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	Yes	BUY	17	41¢	$7	0xde26c3…
10-03 13:02:30	Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x07bf12…
09-30 17:48:03	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	SELL	100	40¢	$40	0xda6b66…
09-30 14:56:32	Will Peso Pluma have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x3bb59b…
09-29 10:36:35	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x3d1aa7…
09-23 20:10:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	SELL	109	11¢	$12	0xcaac41…
09-23 15:34:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	136	11¢	$15	0xcd31a7…
09-23 15:32:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	109	11¢	$12	0xb5ae61…
09-20 13:40:58	Will Saudi airspace be closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	26	8¢	$2	0x10e033…
09-20 12:26:22	Will Saudi airspace be closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x8ba45e…
09-20 10:22:45	Will Saudi airspace be closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xbdedbc…
09-20 10:22:45	Will Saudi airspace be closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x1d75fd…
09-20 10:22:43	Will Saudi airspace be closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0xfe27d8…
09-20 09:20:40	saudi airspace closed by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x7e4e06…
09-18 17:53:01	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	8¢	$12	0xd1c62c…
09-18 15:49:03	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	8¢	$12	0x91592b…
09-18 14:28:48	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	8¢	$12	0x0713cb…
09-17 19:29:46	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 17?	Yes	BUY	25	94¢	$24	0x9374a4…
09-16 07:08:46	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	55	95¢	$52	0xfd9758…
09-15 05:54:03	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	55	81¢	$45	0xae3686…
09-15 05:39:25	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	61	82¢	$50	0x80fb9c…
09-15 05:33:13	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0x558558…
09-14 20:08:07	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0xfe1c7b…
09-14 12:10:46	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x0a7123…
09-14 11:41:04	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	107	70¢	$75	0x71c538…
09-14 11:13:55	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	107	70¢	$75	0x4b05cb…
09-13 12:45:00	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	205	25¢	$51	0x128b6f…
09-10 09:54:33	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	32	76¢	$25	0xfdcdb4…
09-10 09:14:52	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	25	71¢	$18	0x67c7b6…
09-10 08:40:39	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x9d954e…
09-10 08:39:21	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	17	76¢	$13	0xc8a779…
09-10 08:34:33	Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xff5d38…
09-01 14:51:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x3a48f0…
09-01 14:23:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	84	48¢	$40	0xc708b3…
09-01 07:31:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0x865a3f…
08-31 20:48:54	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	86¢	$91	0xea568d…
08-31 11:47:58	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	86¢	$47	0x79b39b…
08-29 12:52:03	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	SELL	193	5¢	$10	0xac9e5b…
08-29 11:48:46	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xb73804…
08-29 06:49:40	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0x639208…
08-28 12:16:25	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x40e574…
08-16 06:04:54	will openais astra model debut on the arena leaderboard at a score of at least 1490	Yes	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0x8df519…
08-15 10:21:00	ufc eri15 don13 2026 08 15	Eric McConico	BUY	15	25¢	$4	0x1dc9ed…
08-15 10:20:42	ufc isl ian1 2026 08 15	Ian Machado Garry	BUY	15	24¢	$4	0xa60cfb…
08-14 13:55:34	will openais astra model debut on the arena leaderboard at a score of at least 1490	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x9ab218…
08-14 13:55:06	will openais astra model debut on the arena leaderboard at a score of at least 1490	Yes	BUY	46	47¢	$22	0x6dd62a…
08-12 11:48:30	wti up or down on august 12 2026	Up	SELL	25	56¢	$14	0xf08d14…
08-12 11:33:43	wti up or down on august 12 2026	Up	BUY	25	52¢	$13	0x581dad…
08-12 07:46:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	211	36¢	$76	0x3a7491…
08-11 10:51:39	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	205	21¢	$43	0xdd40a1…
08-10 13:54:21	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	215	24¢	$52	0xce00c0…
08-09 18:02:39	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	Yes	SELL	15	24¢	$4	0xd818b1…
08-09 17:07:52	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	Yes	SELL	13	24¢	$3	0xe1bd05…
08-09 16:59:15	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 19 20260808192512603	Yes	BUY	27	22¢	$6	0x55e0bb…
08-06 15:31:06	sg quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 06 2026 neg0pt15	No	SELL	19	49¢	$9	0x0af07a…
08-06 10:37:23	sg quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 06 2026 neg0pt15	No	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x43b41a…
08-04 17:17:09	spcx quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 04 2026 neg0pt29	Yes	SELL	52	33¢	$17	0x0fd9b0…
08-04 17:15:09	spcx quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 04 2026 neg0pt29	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x5a12f7…
08-04 17:13:50	spcx quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 04 2026 neg0pt29	Yes	BUY	42	36¢	$15	0x839ee7…
08-04 05:17:26	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	106	7¢	$7	0x1e446b…
07-30 11:18:26	ma quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 30 2026 4pt77	Yes	SELL	51	93¢	$47	0xd73063…
07-30 10:02:03	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	278	4¢	$10	0x48b1a3…
07-30 09:57:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	211	57¢	$120	0xbb9b5b…
07-29 07:27:35	Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton	Adam Walton	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x3cfc01…
07-28 21:46:35	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	200	46¢	$92	0xe5994a…
07-28 14:48:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0x34c98a…
07-27 16:37:22	ma quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 30 2026 4pt77	Yes	BUY	6	92¢	$6	0xb97292…
07-27 05:12:37	xom quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 31 2026 3pt66	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x7a30ec…
07-27 05:11:00	ma quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 30 2026 4pt77	Yes	BUY	45	92¢	$41	0xab6b97…
07-27 05:10:15	wing quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 29 2026 1pt03	Yes	BUY	15	77¢	$12	0xaed03c…
07-27 05:09:19	pypl quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 28 2026 1pt28	Yes	BUY	15	77¢	$12	0x4e3718…
07-27 05:08:39	wwd quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 27 2026 2pt42	Yes	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0x3df77f…
07-26 06:09:30	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 26?	Yes	SELL	30	91¢	$27	0xa1e429…
07-26 06:01:31	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 26?	Yes	SELL	72	91¢	$65	0xb0b2cf…
07-26 05:43:03	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 26?	Yes	BUY	102	91¢	$93	0x3146ec…
07-26 05:40:34	SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?	No	SELL	17	82¢	$14	0x03d4f9…
07-25 18:09:22	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x8499aa…
07-24 18:44:28	will solana reach 80 in july 2026 from july 9	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x96c1af…
07-24 18:44:27	will solana reach 80 in july 2026 from july 9	No	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0xd59419…
07-24 18:44:27	will solana reach 80 in july 2026 from july 9	No	SELL	13	79¢	$10	0x0652f1…
07-24 17:32:27	will solana reach 80 in july 2026 from july 9	No	SELL	11	79¢	$8	0x66f319…
07-24 16:52:27	will solana reach 80 in july 2026 from july 9	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x1f9cf3…
07-24 16:52:21	will solana reach 80 in july 2026 from july 9	No	SELL	18	80¢	$14	0x1a388e…
07-24 15:30:57	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xccd0e2…
07-24 07:50:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 24?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x019101…
07-24 07:40:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x7066f4…
07-23 07:53:46	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0x2f8ca8…
07-22 14:19:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	205	30¢	$62	0x632b69…
07-21 12:28:21	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	203	44¢	$90	0xa509a3…
07-21 12:22:51	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x3832fe…
07-21 06:34:57	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	181	44¢	$79	0x2e1117…
07-21 06:32:42	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xdaa21d…
07-21 06:25:30	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	16	44¢	$7	0xd89bde…
07-21 06:18:04	Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0x03ec90…
07-20 10:40:33	wta niemeie malygin 2026 07 20	Jule Niemeier	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0x24980a…
07-20 10:40:24	wta niemeie malygin 2026 07 20	Jule Niemeier	SELL	3	86¢	$3	0xc45747…
07-20 10:40:19	wta niemeie malygin 2026 07 20	Jule Niemeier	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x8195fe…