Last-Era — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$78

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

42.0%

Resolved

Trades

369

lifetime

Volume

$5.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$15

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-08 09:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

74% 38% $-78

Politics

17% — —

Sports

5% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes		+20	$14	74¢	$15	+$0	06-08 09:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$344	200	200	+0	open	—	02-11 13:31
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$300	200	200	+0	open	—	03-19 15:19
spx opens up or down on february 13 2026	4	$256	200	200	+0	open	—	02-13 16:37
amzn close above 205 on february 19 2026	3	$227	256	256	+0	open	—	02-19 16:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$208	200	200	+0	open	—	04-08 08:46
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	2	$152	200	200	+0	open	—	02-08 11:35
donald trump of truth social posts february 10 february 17 100 119	5	$104	125	125	+0	open	—	02-15 10:15
ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 atm1	2	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	04-08 20:52
will seguro win portugals abroad votes	2	$79	50	50	+0	open	—	02-08 20:27
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$54	100	100	+0	open	—	04-08 08:49
nfl sea ne 2026 02 08	1	$50	72	0	+72	open	—	02-03 15:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$40	100	100	+0	open	—	05-07 13:07
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 26?	2	$39	20	20	+0	open	—	04-26 08:51
dg quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 12 2026 1pt61	2	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	03-12 11:58
atp neumaye wendelk 2026 03 06	3	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	03-06 11:15
pxlw quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 12 2026 neg0pt64	2	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	03-13 11:02
atp altmaie medjedo 2026 03 29	2	$33	20	20	+0	open	—	03-29 16:38
wdfc quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 09 2026 1pt43	2	$33	40	40	+0	open	—	04-08 08:49
atp gill krumich 2026 04 04	2	$31	20	20	+0	open	—	04-04 15:23
Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Europa League winner?	4	$30	72	72	+0	open	—	04-09 09:47
unty quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 10 2026 1pt37	2	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	04-10 10:57
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	3	$28	25	25	+0	open	—	04-29 18:08
wta pegula shnaide 2026 04 03	2	$28	40	0	+40	open	—	04-03 15:17
highest temperature in london on april 24 2026 18c	2	$27	15	15	+0	open	—	04-24 15:59
atp bailly coppeja 2026 03 30	2	$27	20	20	+0	open	—	04-01 06:10
baba quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 19 2026 1pt59	2	$27	30	0	+30	open	—	03-16 13:40
gme quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt19	2	$26	15	15	+0	open	—	06-06 10:06
highest temperature in london on april 20 2026 13c	2	$26	15	15	+0	open	—	04-20 21:04
atp perrica carabel 2026 03 18	2	$26	20	20	+0	open	—	03-19 15:19
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$25	22	22	+0	open	—	02-27 13:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 09:04:12	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x56ffd2…
06-07 09:51:37	atp baez molcan 2026 06 07	Sebastian Baez	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0xc4aac8…
06-07 09:51:36	atp baez molcan 2026 06 07	Sebastian Baez	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xa0862e…
06-07 09:32:31	atp baez molcan 2026 06 07	Sebastian Baez	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x6eabe0…
06-06 10:06:18	gme quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt19	No	SELL	15	88¢	$13	0x7cb9d9…
06-06 07:55:03	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	25	46¢	$12	0x26887d…
06-06 07:53:52	rh quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 11 2026 neg2pt05	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x39f2b8…
06-06 07:51:49	orcl quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 10 2026 1pt96	Yes	BUY	15	84¢	$13	0x7abe78…
06-06 07:50:33	gme quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt19	No	BUY	15	86¢	$13	0x8156b1…
06-06 07:49:57	mtn quarterly earnings gaap eps 06 08 2026 9pt00	No	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0x2257a1…
06-04 15:54:18	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	25	66¢	$16	0xfa2958…
06-02 18:03:32	Roland Garros Juniors, Girls (Doubles): Bastianelli/Pradenne vs Esquiva/Silva	Bastianelli/Pradenne	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x29003f…
06-02 17:55:47	Roland Garros Juniors, Girls (Doubles): Bastianelli/Pradenne vs Esquiva/Silva	Bastianelli/Pradenne	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x97f6bb…
05-30 06:36:21	Will lululemon athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0x4eb769…
05-30 06:35:43	Will Sprinklr (CXM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0x4d787e…
05-30 06:35:01	Will GitLab (GTLB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0xb249fe…
05-30 06:34:19	Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x67e563…
05-28 17:07:01	Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x5fd190…
05-25 07:52:46	Will Autodesk (ADSK) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xa0fdb9…
05-25 07:52:21	Will Snowflake (SNOW) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x76d5ff…
05-25 07:37:08	Will Semtech (SMTC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0x2b4c9c…
05-24 19:42:10	Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox	Minnesota Twins	SELL	15	83¢	$12	0x5b48c8…
05-24 19:34:24	Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox	Minnesota Twins	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0x1d8b2b…
05-19 14:01:02	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	300	3¢	$10	0xc63f52…
05-18 16:15:22	Will Amer Sports (AS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x1957b1…
05-18 13:23:20	Will Amer Sports (AS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xbddb22…
05-18 09:00:48	Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova	Liudmila Samsonova	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x3e964b…
05-17 08:09:27	Will BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x0a7287…
05-17 08:08:58	Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0x9194b2…
05-17 08:07:14	Will Analog Devices (ADI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0xab83af…
05-17 08:06:34	Will Amer Sports (AS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xd0d6ff…
05-13 11:59:48	Parma: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Dayana Yastremska	Dayana Yastremska	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xd9229d…
05-13 11:59:33	Parma: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Dayana Yastremska	Dayana Yastremska	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x05ad62…
05-13 11:59:31	Parma: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Dayana Yastremska	Dayana Yastremska	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0xfff37a…
05-13 11:44:40	Tunis: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Jay Clarke	Pol Martin Tiffon	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0x84ea6a…
05-13 11:43:02	Parma: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Dayana Yastremska	Dayana Yastremska	BUY	15	77¢	$12	0x8da99e…
05-12 12:01:20	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Jelena Ostapenko	Sorana Cirstea	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x0f1004…
05-11 12:45:20	Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	15	80¢	$12	0x4f04e9…
05-11 12:44:50	Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	78¢	$12	0x264c87…
05-11 12:44:03	Will eToro (ETOR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0xb924f5…
05-11 12:43:19	Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	15	89¢	$13	0x70c029…
05-07 13:07:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x73ba6c…
05-07 11:27:49	Francavilla: Juan Carlos Prado vs Ryan Seggerman	Juan Carlos Prado	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0xa63ff5…
05-06 15:21:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x9359b9…
05-05 09:24:08	Francavilla: Alex Barrena vs August Holmgren	Alex Barrena	BUY	15	77¢	$12	0x3978db…
05-03 09:54:14	Ostrava: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Zdenek Kolar	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x18a40b…
05-03 09:53:40	Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	79¢	$12	0xa5ede8…
05-03 09:52:46	Will Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	76¢	$11	0xdc6d07…
05-03 09:52:08	Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xc29f47…
05-03 09:51:14	Will AMC Entertainment (AMC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x034b8a…
05-03 09:50:38	Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	15	76¢	$11	0x3ef48e…
05-03 09:49:50	Will Hess Midstream (HESM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0x3004f2…
05-03 09:49:04	Will Pinterest (PINS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0x1f966e…
05-02 10:14:14	La Bisbal: Daria Kasatkina vs Sara Sorribes Tormo	Daria Kasatkina	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xea310a…
05-01 09:07:14	Aix en Provence: Zizou Bergs vs Rinky Hijikata	Zizou Bergs	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0xb2e0cb…
04-30 09:55:00	Cagliari: Cristian Garin vs Nuno Borges	Nuno Borges	BUY	15	72¢	$11	0xb4778b…
04-29 18:08:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x4c513a…
04-29 18:08:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	25	73¢	$18	0x2f3eaa…
04-29 14:53:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0x85d691…
04-29 10:21:56	Mauthausen: Laslo Djere vs Jan Choinski	Jan Choinski	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0xaa4bb3…
04-27 12:05:20	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 27?	No	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0xc059bb…
04-26 09:14:38	Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x988e48…
04-26 09:13:32	Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x6cc97b…
04-26 09:12:52	Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x266e8c…
04-26 09:12:04	Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x6fb31d…
04-26 09:11:34	Will Domino's Pizza (DPZ) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x801df7…
04-26 09:09:30	Madrid Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alex Michelsen	Jiri Lehecka	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0xed1f2c…
04-26 08:51:00	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 26?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xc98419…
04-26 08:44:06	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 26?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x21fe44…
04-24 16:38:48	highest temperature in madrid on april 24 2026 22c	Yes	SELL	9	97¢	$9	0xa8f06a…
04-24 15:59:48	highest temperature in london on april 24 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x9da013…
04-24 15:32:10	highest temperature in madrid on april 24 2026 22c	Yes	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0xd75f1a…
04-24 15:03:22	highest temperature in madrid on april 24 2026 22c	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xa64a3e…
04-24 14:55:32	highest temperature in madrid on april 24 2026 22c	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x21040a…
04-24 14:34:50	highest temperature in madrid on april 24 2026 22c	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x25c88a…
04-24 14:33:02	highest temperature in london on april 24 2026 18c	Yes	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x08de4b…
04-24 14:31:20	Rome: Andrea Vavassori vs Pol Martin Tiffon	Andrea Vavassori	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0x005345…
04-23 11:42:22	Madrid Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Ethan Quinn	Fabian Marozsan	BUY	15	80¢	$12	0x9d4691…
04-23 11:41:38	highest temperature in london on april 23 2026 19c	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x55a8cb…
04-23 11:33:52	btc updown 5m 1776944100	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xef921d…
04-22 07:09:18	btc updown 5m 1776841500	Up	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0x76dbc6…
04-22 07:09:18	btc updown 5m 1776841500	Up	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x62cbb9…
04-22 07:09:16	btc updown 5m 1776841500	Up	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xb7dd8f…
04-22 07:09:16	btc updown 5m 1776841500	Up	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x15834c…
04-22 07:06:06	btc updown 5m 1776841500	Up	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x1a5c38…
04-22 07:05:16	highest temperature in hong kong on april 22 2026 29c	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x99488d…
04-21 11:18:00	btc updown 5m 1776770100	Up	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0x3d5c0a…
04-21 11:18:00	btc updown 5m 1776770100	Up	SELL	3	90¢	$2	0x231f60…
04-21 11:16:46	btc updown 5m 1776770100	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x14aeb1…
04-21 07:26:12	btc updown 5m 1776756300	Down	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xf723d5…
04-21 07:25:10	highest temperature in shanghai on april 21 2026 16c	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xfd5f29…
04-20 21:04:34	highest temperature in london on april 20 2026 13c	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x1ae530…
04-20 12:06:46	highest temperature in london on april 20 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	15	75¢	$11	0x13f8ce…
04-19 18:45:52	btc updown 5m 1776624300	Down	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0x6a6c49…
04-19 18:44:56	btc updown 5m 1776624300	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xd97763…
04-19 18:42:24	highest temperature in nyc on april 19 2026 52 53f	Yes	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x54add2…
04-19 10:01:26	btc updown 5m 1776592800	Down	BUY	15	88¢	$13	0x938f90…
04-19 10:00:26	pg quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 24 2026 1pt56	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x745f0f…
04-19 09:59:58	hon quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 23 2026 2pt32	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xbbf28c…
04-19 09:59:06	tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 0pt39	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x54e65f…