Anguished-Replacement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

81.4%

Resolved

328

Trades

648

lifetime

Volume

$8.48K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 10-18 22:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Other

82% 86% +$3

Crypto

11% 92% +$0

Politics

4% 64% $0

Sports

1% 44% $0

Tech

1% 67% +$0

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No		+4	$4	100¢	$4	+$0	08-08 11:06
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No		+4	$4	100¢	$4	$0	09-24 11:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 17?	5	$110	55	55	+0	No	+$0	05-17 09:56
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C or below on May 5?	3	$74	37	37	+0	No	$0	05-04 21:21
Will ByteDance have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	5	$72	36	36	+0	No	+$0	04-29 05:28
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 8?	9	$71	45	27	+18	No	+$0	05-07 16:39
will learner tien win the 2026 australian open	2	$67	33	33	+0	No	$0	01-24 11:06
will man i need olivia dean be the billboard hot 100 1 song for the week of april 18	3	$63	31	31	+0	No	+$0	04-13 17:58
highest temperature in toronto on april 11 2026 16corhigher	1	$62	62	0	+62	No	+$0	04-11 03:26
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-10 15:22
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 16?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-16 05:54
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 4?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	$0	05-04 00:17
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 17?	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-17 09:54
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on May 10?	3	$58	29	29	+0	No	$0	05-10 03:43
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 12?	3	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-11 10:43
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on April 25?	3	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	04-25 14:08
Uber # of trips above 5B in Q1?	3	$57	29	29	+0	No	$0	05-05 14:10
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on May 6?	2	$55	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-06 08:34
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 40.5 on April 24, 2026?	3	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	04-25 11:35
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or below on May 5?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	$0	05-04 11:10
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 240 259	1	$53	54	0	+54	No	+$0	03-27 03:12
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 10?	2	$51	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-10 00:30
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on May 10?	2	$51	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-09 08:58
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 11?	4	$50	25	25	+0	No	$0	05-10 15:53
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 6?	2	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-06 08:36
highest temperature in buenos aires on april 21 2026 16c	4	$50	25	25	+0	No	$0	04-21 03:00
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 62-63°F on May 3?	4	$50	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-02 16:19
Will Jhamar Youngblood win the Newark mayoral election?	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-13 01:14
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	3	$49	25	25	+0	No	$0	05-06 16:26
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 11?	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-11 10:31
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on May 14?	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-13 08:38
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 50-51°F on May 13?	4	$49	24	24	+0	No	+$0	05-12 14:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-18 22:37:08	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xcd4639…
10-18 22:36:11	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x6886b1…
10-16 23:57:15	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x90e2f2…
10-12 13:29:44	Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x72447f…
10-12 13:28:54	Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x41a5c1…
10-08 15:28:27	Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe98690…
09-24 11:43:21	Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xd5461e…
09-19 19:13:59	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x67792f…
09-04 00:51:31	Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x3a7b78…
08-28 01:05:06	Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x7d2139…
08-28 01:03:57	Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x5090c6…
08-26 10:07:49	Will CF Montréal win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x31e2a1…
08-08 11:06:52	Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x272678…
07-29 18:28:44	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0a6b0f…
07-26 18:20:09	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x600c69…
07-20 00:18:15	Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x557bd1…
07-18 11:53:09	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe41ced…
07-18 11:52:15	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x296403…
07-16 02:55:55	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x563f67…
07-11 16:42:17	Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x6c2347…
07-03 03:10:58	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x095949…
07-01 00:41:23	Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x047697…
06-27 15:35:14	Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x6bd569…
06-23 19:44:50	Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x6cd37a…
06-21 12:32:14	Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8d32bf…
05-17 09:56:05	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 17?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x5c14aa…
05-17 09:54:41	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 17?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x2e7710…
05-17 09:18:26	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 17?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x94d889…
05-17 08:55:39	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 17?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xf06e11…
05-17 08:34:10	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 17?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xe40f01…
05-17 08:01:05	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 17?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x0b607a…
05-17 07:32:11	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 17?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x127147…
05-17 05:37:11	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 17?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xa8200e…
05-17 05:22:06	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on May 17?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xbb1cd4…
05-17 05:20:40	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on May 17?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x4654c3…
05-17 03:49:59	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 17?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x9d108b…
05-17 00:09:52	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 17?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x2f47cb…
05-16 22:32:36	Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x8e5591…
05-16 21:33:32	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 37°C or higher on May 17?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x02c108…
05-16 20:10:54	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on May 17?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x76aa50…
05-16 16:54:44	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 17?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x2e98f6…
05-16 16:35:18	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 17?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x5ff830…
05-16 16:25:37	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on May 17?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x20a355…
05-16 15:50:57	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 16?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5be7bd…
05-16 11:42:41	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 17?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd8153f…
05-16 10:35:39	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 16?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x49469c…
05-16 09:34:22	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x271370…
05-16 09:30:47	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 16?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x349121…
05-16 09:30:02	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 16?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x324320…
05-16 05:54:22	Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 16?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x84d89d…
05-16 05:16:38	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x84a269…
05-16 04:25:47	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 16?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xbda740…
05-16 02:00:06	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 16?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x0ae9fb…
05-16 01:00:52	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 16?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x54d3cd…
05-16 01:00:24	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 16?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xe6e8f3…
05-16 00:54:27	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 16?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xa79339…
05-16 00:03:51	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 16?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x896e58…
05-15 21:24:29	Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 16?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xa0e602…
05-15 20:15:21	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 16?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x872467…
05-15 19:22:55	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on May 16?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xfbd906…
05-15 19:17:13	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 15?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xe83789…
05-15 17:58:02	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on May 16?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x155699…
05-15 14:30:36	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 15?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x745378…
05-15 13:41:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 15?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xcd00a0…
05-15 13:39:49	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 15?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x3df8c3…
05-15 13:16:33	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 15?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x74b34b…
05-15 12:58:35	Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2e3485…
05-15 09:44:20	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xb35e92…
05-15 08:58:18	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 15?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x3ab19d…
05-15 08:10:37	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 15?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x7b6a75…
05-15 06:26:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on May 15?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x04c279…
05-15 06:17:52	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb91966…
05-15 05:55:15	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on May 15?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf868ce…
05-15 05:44:30	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on May 15?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x7c5981…
05-15 05:40:28	Will Greece come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x7ec188…
05-15 05:38:55	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 15?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x6d8088…
05-15 05:35:52	Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xc4642e…
05-14 21:51:12	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on May 15?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x104063…
05-14 20:22:32	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on May 15?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x18fa53…
05-14 19:29:59	Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xe7696b…
05-14 16:14:46	Will Greece come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x1a5b81…
05-14 15:54:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on May 15?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x786156…
05-14 13:34:23	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 15?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x48daa6…
05-14 12:47:57	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on May 15?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x62da13…
05-14 08:56:20	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 15?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa59d8b…
05-14 08:00:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 15?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x370b7f…
05-14 02:40:33	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on May 14?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x653e53…
05-14 02:14:29	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x57198e…
05-14 02:10:32	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on May 14?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc6543f…
05-14 02:10:29	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on May 14?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe9211d…
05-14 02:10:25	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on May 14?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1fcc28…
05-14 02:10:01	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on May 14?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$1	0x883a6b…
05-14 02:08:37	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc28135…
05-14 01:27:50	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on May 14?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xbdd298…
05-14 01:23:42	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 14?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3e4433…
05-14 01:21:29	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 14?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x539bba…
05-14 01:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on May 14?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xb38712…
05-13 21:51:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on May 14?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x8bc962…
05-13 19:11:58	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 14?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xaa172f…
05-13 18:03:54	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xc87fec…