Bleak-Full — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9.61K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

25,937

lifetime

Volume

$11.4M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$441

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-11 18:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

79% 100% +$8,687

Other

20% 100% +$926

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 607 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	73	$352.5K	284,175	77,631	+206,544	open	—	02-28 08:05
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	14	$348.9K	240,000	110,000	+130,000	open	—	01-03 07:29
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	45	$250.4K	157,000	97,475	+59,525	open	—	03-08 22:39
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	266	$219.0K	166,108	152,906	+13,202	open	—	06-01 06:05
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	349	$216.4K	150,221	150,221	+0	open	—	04-01 20:45
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	284	$212.0K	177,446	172,446	+5,000	open	—	02-28 07:15
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1,116	$181.3K	189,440	192,481	-3,041	open	—	08-11 11:21
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	26	$167.1K	165,306	5,606	+159,699	open	—	04-30 20:25
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	16	$161.2K	155,000	14,763	+140,237	open	—	04-10 02:28
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	114	$159.9K	169,043	44,161	+124,882	open	—	03-03 22:03
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	129	$158.7K	137,609	62,609	+75,000	open	—	03-13 20:15
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	507	$155.4K	148,234	162,909	-14,675	open	—	01-31 02:51
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	434	$147.9K	94,929	91,825	+3,103	No	+$5,857	05-08 03:23
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	106	$140.5K	88,146	55,130	+33,016	open	—	06-01 05:07
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	162	$137.6K	176,928	76,928	+100,000	open	—	03-01 00:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	185	$132.2K	163,481	160,507	+2,974	open	—	07-11 22:11
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	242	$129.8K	126,900	66,514	+60,386	open	—	04-15 01:31
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	350	$129.2K	209,872	215,017	-5,145	open	—	02-01 04:49
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	76	$128.5K	87,212	54,349	+32,864	open	—	01-19 21:24
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	128	$123.4K	80,475	69,175	+11,300	open	—	02-14 02:02
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	27	$109.3K	53,084	58,084	-5,000	open	—	05-25 05:46
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	400	$106.7K	448,013	400,570	+47,442	open	—	06-15 04:13
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	93	$105.3K	72,195	70,509	+1,687	open	—	03-30 00:06
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	217	$102.0K	90,519	97,565	-7,045	open	—	06-14 22:40
will israel nuke iran by january 31	33	$98.2K	48,889	49,999	-1,110	open	—	01-18 00:37
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	44	$97.1K	50,000	50,000	+0	No	+$926	03-27 01:44
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	240	$95.2K	121,022	15,877	+105,145	open	—	01-30 01:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	119	$94.5K	56,287	56,287	+0	open	—	05-14 07:52
netanyahu out by march 31 854	31	$88.4K	45,564	45,564	+0	open	—	03-27 18:48
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	20	$83.7K	80,593	10,593	+70,000	open	—	06-02 19:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 21:41:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 15 20260810150912478	Yes	BUY	40	11¢	$4	0x17bcb4…
08-11 21:13:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x8da03d…
08-11 21:13:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x1a8719…
08-11 21:13:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x06bd67…
08-11 21:13:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	48¢	$1	0xf0b53a…
08-11 21:13:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xe39d4b…
08-11 21:13:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x031165…
08-11 21:06:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4d58f2…
08-11 21:06:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x14bdd8…
08-11 21:06:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x381dfe…
08-11 21:04:31	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	79	26¢	$21	0xa8f927…
08-11 20:54:21	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	666	24¢	$160	0xb462ba…
08-11 20:52:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	383	48¢	$184	0x3f6367…
08-11 20:50:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x1ecd5b…
08-11 20:44:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	182	48¢	$87	0xf32b0a…
08-11 20:38:39	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	0	24¢	$0	0xf34a9c…
08-11 20:38:39	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	21	24¢	$5	0x215def…
08-11 20:35:39	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0x878bf7…
08-11 20:35:37	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0xdc7b08…
08-11 20:35:37	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0xb75a91…
08-11 20:35:36	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0x67966e…
08-11 20:35:36	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0x667c87…
08-11 20:33:52	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0x5b729b…
08-11 20:33:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	15	48¢	$7	0x94b6c7…
08-11 20:32:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb98b60…
08-11 20:30:16	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0xd2b25b…
08-11 20:30:16	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0xb279e1…
08-11 20:29:46	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x13d569…
08-11 20:27:10	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0xe63872…
08-11 20:27:09	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0xb9ed7f…
08-11 20:27:09	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0xa4dfdf…
08-11 20:27:07	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0xe60f76…
08-11 20:27:07	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0x643bf9…
08-11 20:15:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x36811e…
08-11 20:02:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0xb40b45…
08-11 19:59:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xc98a26…
08-11 19:57:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	2,000	12¢	$240	0xe9b42f…
08-11 19:56:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x36b789…
08-11 19:56:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	649	12¢	$78	0xcc67f0…
08-11 19:54:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x2eb29c…
08-11 19:54:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xfd776d…
08-11 19:53:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	275	48¢	$132	0xa6d50e…
08-11 19:53:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,222	48¢	$1,067	0xe59bb0…
08-11 19:46:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	93	12¢	$11	0x716dbd…
08-11 19:46:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	22	48¢	$11	0x9dccfe…
08-11 19:44:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x1552b1…
08-11 19:43:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xc09193…
08-11 19:42:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	284	48¢	$136	0xf3cf53…
08-11 19:42:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	9,232	16¢	$1,477	0x0ee561…
08-11 19:41:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	48¢	$5	0x726095…
08-11 19:41:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	38	48¢	$18	0xd5a605…
08-11 19:41:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	173	48¢	$83	0x9c9c64…
08-11 19:41:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	47	48¢	$22	0x880d67…
08-11 19:41:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0x4b00a9…
08-11 19:41:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0x345c05…
08-11 19:41:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	56	48¢	$27	0x0a629c…
08-11 19:41:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	68	48¢	$33	0x01f801…
08-11 19:41:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3,455	48¢	$1,659	0x264d1b…
08-11 19:36:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	22	12¢	$3	0x21c80b…
08-11 19:36:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x2a4551…
08-11 19:36:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	81	12¢	$10	0x1086ab…
08-11 19:36:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xf7997d…
08-11 19:36:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	313	12¢	$38	0xf5a52d…
08-11 19:36:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xe80423…
08-11 19:36:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x18c65f…
08-11 19:36:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x976371…
08-11 19:36:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	28	12¢	$3	0x77e597…
08-11 19:36:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0xedaf9d…
08-11 19:36:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	55	12¢	$7	0xc1b033…
08-11 19:36:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	49	12¢	$6	0x55265f…
08-11 19:36:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0x4ad445…
08-11 19:36:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	2,069	12¢	$248	0xc8ecb8…
08-11 19:25:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	Yes	BUY	2	23¢	$1	0x603024…
08-11 19:24:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 15 20260810150912478	Yes	BUY	2,162	11¢	$238	0x39e8f6…
08-11 19:23:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 15 20260810150912478	Yes	BUY	555	10¢	$55	0x073a11…
08-11 19:22:51	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	Yes	BUY	7,999	23¢	$1,840	0x2d56df…
08-11 18:51:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	4,786	4¢	$182	0x875f58…
08-11 18:51:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x6e92f5…
08-11 18:51:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	16	4¢	$1	0x84bf4a…
08-11 18:50:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0xc1867b…
08-11 18:50:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0x64bca1…
08-11 18:49:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x84e9e3…
08-11 18:49:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x98307e…
08-11 18:49:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0xa1fa5c…
08-11 18:48:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x3f0f3b…
08-11 18:47:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x6ab4f2…
08-11 18:47:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x060f3f…
08-11 18:46:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0x1c9f1c…
08-11 18:46:15	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x317542…
08-11 18:46:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x5d6914…
08-11 18:45:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x8bfd33…
08-11 18:44:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0xe89cda…
08-11 18:44:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0x76c899…
08-11 18:43:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0xb8ac80…
08-11 18:43:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0xb778f3…
08-11 18:42:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x02e9f1…
08-11 18:42:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0xe0a687…
08-11 18:41:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xf282cf…
08-11 18:41:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0x17a1b8…
08-11 18:41:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0x36d16f…