Orderly-Sonata — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.10K

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

58.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$12.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$191

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 10-08 06:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Other

76% 72% +$1,296

Politics

23% 50% -$1

Sports

2% 0% -$199

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No		+3	$3	97¢	$3	+$0	09-30 02:42
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?	No		+0	$2	97¢	$0	-$2	05-09 06:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	3	$926	505	505	+0	No	-$7	06-08 06:36
lol fxw7 png1 2026 06 07 game2 both teams slay baron	2	$894	483	483	+0	No	+$24	06-08 02:53
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	3	$870	468	468	+0	No	+$0	06-04 05:47
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	3	$790	418	418	+0	No	+$4	06-07 07:07
Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?	3	$715	376	376	+0	open	—	05-11 09:13
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?	2	$715	374	374	+0	No	-$2	05-10 07:39
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	3	$714	379	379	+0	Yes	-$3	05-31 06:22
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	2	$679	348	348	+0	No	-$1	05-07 05:44
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	3	$648	339	339	+0	No	+$4	05-30 06:58
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?	2	$631	340	340	+0	open	—	05-09 06:50
dota2 z10 sb5 2026 06 08 game2 any player rampage	1	$474	499	0	+499	No	+$25	06-08 06:43
lol koia ucam1 2026 06 04 game1 both teams slay baron	1	$435	478	0	+478	No	+$43	06-04 05:50
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 5.5	1	$405	436	0	+436	Under	+$31	06-03 07:52
Spread: Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5)	1	$362	366	0	+366	El Mokawloon El Arab SC	+$4	05-13 08:00
Spread: Burnley FC (-2.5)	1	$357	361	0	+361	Aston Villa FC	+$4	05-10 07:58
Spread: Hammarby IF (-2.5)	1	$355	390	0	+390	BK Hacken	+$35	05-31 06:27
Spread: Al Taawoun Saudi Club (-2.5)	1	$353	361	0	+361	Al Ahli Saudi Club	+$8	05-11 11:30
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)	1	$348	358	0	+358	RB Leipzig	+$10	05-09 07:48
Spread: Ismaily SC (-1.5)	1	$340	354	0	+354	National Bank of Egypt Club	+$14	05-07 06:02
Spread: US Catanzaro 1929 (-1.5)	1	$329	358	0	+358	US Catanzaro 1929	-$329	05-29 05:01
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)	1	$327	359	0	+359	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC	+$32	05-30 07:05
Spread: Croatia (-2.5)	1	$275	291	0	+291	Belgium	+$16	06-02 05:44
mlb min tor 2026 03 13	2	$199	510	0	+510	Toronto Blue Jays	-$199	03-13 07:25
will russia enter havrylivka by july 31 2026	4	$106	729	729	+0	No	-$14	06-30 05:43
israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260810145737300	4	$87	716	716	+0	No	+$4	08-13 09:43
kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	3	$56	737	737	+0	No	+$0	08-13 06:52
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)	2	$55	790	0	+790	Shandong Taishan FC	+$735	05-05 06:55
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	6	$42	1,413	1,413	+0	No	+$0	05-06 07:52
Spread: Çaykur Rizespor (-2.5)	2	$40	806	0	+806	Beşiktaş JK	-$40	05-15 05:35
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	1	$33	35	0	+35	Argentina	+$2	07-03 08:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-08 06:45:48	Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xa0f76e…
09-30 02:42:30	Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x0e0a94…
08-13 09:43:21	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260810145737300	Yes	SELL	372	6¢	$23	0xa9a933…
08-13 09:43:21	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260810145737300	Yes	SELL	344	6¢	$22	0x3e5567…
08-13 06:56:22	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260810145737300	Yes	BUY	330	6¢	$19	0x1fba98…
08-13 06:56:19	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260810145737300	Yes	BUY	386	6¢	$22	0x54f097…
08-13 06:52:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	Yes	SELL	737	4¢	$28	0x74670a…
08-13 06:04:36	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	Yes	BUY	364	4¢	$14	0x0ffbcf…
08-13 06:04:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	Yes	BUY	373	4¢	$14	0x26a992…
07-03 08:23:16	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x20b429…
06-30 05:43:13	will russia enter havrylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	362	6¢	$23	0xc666fe…
06-30 05:43:13	will russia enter havrylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	367	6¢	$23	0xc2c76c…
06-30 02:12:59	will russia enter havrylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	362	8¢	$30	0xce8889…
06-30 02:12:58	will russia enter havrylivka by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	367	8¢	$30	0xd0f659…
06-08 06:43:09	dota2 z10 sb5 2026 06 08 game2 any player rampage	No	BUY	499	95¢	$474	0x066c54…
06-08 06:36:16	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	442	91¢	$402	0x2cc95f…
06-08 06:36:15	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	63	91¢	$57	0xde406a…
06-08 04:15:45	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	505	92¢	$466	0xf0219c…
06-08 02:53:54	lol fxw7 png1 2026 06 07 game2 both teams slay baron	No	SELL	483	95¢	$459	0xbe5a9c…
06-07 07:10:19	lol fxw7 png1 2026 06 07 game2 both teams slay baron	No	BUY	483	90¢	$435	0xba03e8…
06-07 07:07:07	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	No	SELL	74	95¢	$70	0x283982…
06-07 07:07:06	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	No	SELL	344	95¢	$327	0x9d0e77…
06-07 04:50:19	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	No	BUY	418	94¢	$393	0xf60bdf…
06-04 05:50:03	lol koia ucam1 2026 06 04 game1 both teams slay baron	No	BUY	478	91¢	$435	0xab6a43…
06-04 05:47:27	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x57dd08…
06-04 05:47:25	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	368	93¢	$342	0xf1f6ea…
06-04 02:32:49	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	468	93¢	$435	0x1b3fa4…
06-03 07:52:05	Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	436	93¢	$405	0x3c77c6…
06-02 05:44:15	Spread: Croatia (-2.5)	Belgium	BUY	291	95¢	$275	0x2b168d…
05-31 06:27:55	Spread: Hammarby IF (-2.5)	BK Hacken	BUY	390	91¢	$355	0xcff58f…
05-31 06:22:55	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	25	94¢	$24	0xae6c76…
05-31 06:22:54	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	354	94¢	$332	0x470a8c…
05-31 03:23:07	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	379	95¢	$359	0xbd9571…
05-30 07:05:10	Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC	BUY	359	91¢	$327	0x4eeb33…
05-30 06:58:24	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0xd1e247…
05-30 06:58:24	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	No	SELL	332	96¢	$319	0x019e7f…
05-30 05:26:05	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	No	BUY	339	95¢	$322	0x5b3914…
05-29 05:01:22	Spread: US Catanzaro 1929 (-1.5)	AC Monza	BUY	358	92¢	$329	0x427b8f…
05-15 05:35:03	Spread: Çaykur Rizespor (-2.5)	Çaykur Rizespor	BUY	447	5¢	$22	0x268240…
05-15 05:34:57	Spread: Çaykur Rizespor (-2.5)	Çaykur Rizespor	BUY	359	5¢	$18	0xff2244…
05-13 08:00:54	Spread: Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5)	El Mokawloon El Arab SC	BUY	366	99¢	$362	0xf6162b…
05-11 11:30:40	Spread: Al Taawoun Saudi Club (-2.5)	Al Ahli Saudi Club	BUY	361	98¢	$353	0xce6b64…
05-11 09:13:58	Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x333b70…
05-11 09:12:56	Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?	No	SELL	374	94¢	$353	0x89de96…
05-11 07:23:04	Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?	No	BUY	376	96¢	$361	0x1d6882…
05-10 07:58:24	Spread: Burnley FC (-2.5)	Aston Villa FC	BUY	361	99¢	$357	0x074c0a…
05-10 07:39:02	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?	No	SELL	374	95¢	$356	0x432099…
05-10 05:48:59	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?	No	BUY	374	96¢	$359	0x1f5909…
05-09 07:48:21	Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)	RB Leipzig	BUY	358	97¢	$348	0x48eb58…
05-09 06:50:03	Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?	No	SELL	340	92¢	$314	0x172aa0…
05-09 05:01:17	Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?	No	BUY	340	93¢	$317	0xe77988…
05-07 06:02:12	Spread: Ismaily SC (-1.5)	National Bank of Egypt Club	BUY	354	96¢	$340	0xfaca5b…
05-07 05:44:12	US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	348	97¢	$339	0x053f62…
05-07 03:05:42	US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	348	98¢	$340	0x1b087e…
05-06 08:24:36	Spread: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5)	Matsumoto Yamaga FC	BUY	370	3¢	$11	0x9e9616…
05-06 08:24:34	Spread: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5)	Matsumoto Yamaga FC	BUY	348	3¢	$11	0xfec5bb…
05-06 07:52:14	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	723	2¢	$11	0x79b9c4…
05-06 06:31:24	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	350	1¢	$5	0x316201…
05-06 06:31:18	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	373	1¢	$5	0x57505d…
05-05 06:55:16	Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)	Shandong Taishan FC	BUY	430	7¢	$30	0xacae2d…
05-05 06:55:10	Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)	Shandong Taishan FC	BUY	360	7¢	$25	0xa1557e…
05-05 05:09:38	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	690	2¢	$10	0x13b1a1…
05-05 02:48:20	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$5	0xd7d42c…
05-05 02:48:10	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	390	2¢	$6	0xa6417b…
03-13 07:25:37	mlb min tor 2026 03 13	Minnesota Twins	BUY	300	39¢	$117	0xa9aaa4…
03-13 07:25:37	mlb min tor 2026 03 13	Minnesota Twins	BUY	210	39¢	$82	0x535980…