Realized P&L
+$29
Unrealized P&L
-$20
Hit rate
93.4%
Resolved
10
Trades
83
lifetime
Volume
$396
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$79
15 positions
First seen
2026-10-05
last 10-26 15:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Politics
48% 100% +$36
Other
46% 86% -$7
Tech
6% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
11 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +30 $25 92¢ $28 +$3 10-07 11:25
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No +25 $25 100¢ $25 $0 10-26 11:28
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? Yes +6 $6 90¢ $6 $0 10-26 05:01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +6 $5 96¢ $5 +$0 10-26 05:24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? No +52 $25 7¢ $4 -$21 10-14 12:58
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat? Yes +7 $3 46¢ $3 +$0 10-26 03:54
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +2 $2 97¢ $2 +$0 10-05 18:43
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +1 $1 92¢ $1 $0 10-07 03:48
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes -1 -$1 97¢ $-1 $0 10-26 05:00
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes +1 $1 88¢ $1 +$0 10-26 05:21
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? Yes +1 $1 86¢ $1 $0 10-26 05:25
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Yes +1 $1 92¢ $1 $0 10-26 05:25
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026? No +1 $1 90¢ $1 $0 10-26 00:17
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Yes +1 $1 86¢ $1 $0 10-13 18:55
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? Yes +2 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 10-10 13:21