Antique-Chitchat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$563

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

90.2%

Resolved

Trades

662

lifetime

Volume

$53.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$81

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-02

last 08-17 22:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

66% 75% +$475

Other

26% 100% +$88

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	8	$2.4K	2,080	863	+1,217	open	—	06-03 12:07
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	10	$2.0K	1,410	900	+510	open	—	05-30 08:36
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$1.5K	780	780	+0	open	—	04-21 08:59
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	25	$1.2K	2,238	0	+2,238	open	—	06-16 08:49
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$1.2K	600	600	+0	open	—	03-14 03:38
iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	12	$1.2K	1,229	0	+1,229	open	—	07-24 21:24
Iran leadership change by April 30?	12	$1.2K	1,289	0	+1,289	open	—	04-28 01:34
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	7	$1.1K	1,111	120	+991	open	—	05-31 21:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	1	$998	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-02 20:03
us forces enter iran by march 3 882 999	3	$993	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-03 22:03
Iran leadership change by March 13?	5	$990	500	500	+0	open	—	03-14 14:46
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$981	580	580	+0	open	—	04-22 11:13
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	12	$914	1,830	1,830	+0	open	—	04-07 22:26
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	1	$798	1,010	0	+1,010	open	—	03-17 21:22
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	6	$628	330	330	+0	open	—	04-15 19:07
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	11	$609	710	0	+710	open	—	05-11 17:34
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	10	$607	700	0	+700	open	—	07-28 16:04
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	2	$587	300	300	+0	open	—	03-07 04:59
Will UK strike Iran by April 30?	3	$587	300	300	+0	open	—	04-19 15:21
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	4	$529	290	290	+0	open	—	03-31 17:30
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$505	540	0	+540	open	—	03-02 22:26
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	10	$480	500	0	+500	open	—	03-02 23:16
will the us invade iran by march 31	3	$458	270	270	+0	open	—	03-21 18:26
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	4	$458	480	0	+480	open	—	08-04 12:27
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	5	$455	483	268	+215	open	—	06-10 19:46
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	10	$454	453	453	+0	open	—	05-23 22:52
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	3	$445	310	310	+0	open	—	04-11 12:22
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	5	$442	450	0	+450	open	—	05-13 17:03
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	18	$441	1,315	0	+1,315	open	—	06-14 08:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	11	$438	410	410	+0	open	—	04-22 11:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-17 22:55:22	will wti reach 110 in august 2026	No	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x26664d…
08-17 21:06:40	will wti reach 110 in august 2026	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xfacbfe…
08-17 20:23:22	will wti reach 110 in august 2026	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x864cd7…
08-17 18:18:15	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	BUY	60	93¢	$56	0xbbff32…
08-17 18:11:46	will wti reach 105 in august 2026	No	BUY	60	96¢	$58	0x38f2ec…
08-17 17:30:37	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	55	92¢	$51	0x46daa9…
08-17 05:07:40	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x440c6e…
08-17 03:34:04	will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	No	BUY	60	92¢	$55	0xb661d4…
08-16 10:30:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0x9fc2d9…
08-16 03:05:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x675b64…
08-16 01:02:37	will bitcoin dip to 55k in august 2026	No	BUY	60	91¢	$55	0x537108…
08-15 00:02:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	210	99¢	$208	0x5e0fc7…
08-12 22:13:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	60	91¢	$55	0xea8209…
08-11 11:03:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0xe260a3…
08-11 08:23:40	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0x8df02a…
08-10 21:22:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	55	93¢	$51	0xe68fad…
08-10 20:14:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0x73b8a8…
08-10 13:22:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xa9fd76…
08-09 21:09:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0x0f39c6…
08-09 18:54:01	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	360	98¢	$352	0x2a9fec…
08-09 11:40:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0xf9a3e2…
08-09 11:39:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	60	86¢	$51	0x869ad4…
08-08 19:28:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	90	57¢	$51	0x7643b2…
08-08 06:32:48	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	130	75¢	$98	0xe7efe1…
08-07 13:31:40	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	No	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0xba92d6…
08-07 13:31:39	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	110	94¢	$103	0x8df727…
08-07 13:03:58	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	123	78¢	$96	0x1f3dee…
08-07 13:01:45	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$6	0xf5dc25…
08-06 19:26:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364	Yes	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xd22d1e…
08-06 18:49:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	80	61¢	$49	0xc125a6…
08-06 17:35:53	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	55	92¢	$51	0xe33f3c…
08-06 16:14:14	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0xcca667…
08-06 11:59:33	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0xf634b8…
08-05 20:24:41	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	47	87¢	$41	0x48dc3b…
08-05 18:16:17	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	13	87¢	$11	0xbae69a…
08-05 03:52:39	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0x7605a2…
08-04 12:41:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	160	97¢	$155	0xda075b…
08-04 12:27:18	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	110	97¢	$107	0x78fe8a…
08-04 11:00:18	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	210	98¢	$205	0x76c094…
08-04 10:37:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	160	98¢	$156	0xcea609…
08-03 20:37:41	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	80	65¢	$52	0x063d2a…
08-03 18:26:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	110	88¢	$97	0xe2c873…
08-03 18:22:39	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x3eb88a…
08-03 17:10:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	80	62¢	$50	0xdb6b09…
08-02 02:21:39	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	160	61¢	$98	0x2a680b…
08-01 19:08:05	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	85	94¢	$80	0x93ee50…
08-01 19:08:05	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	39	94¢	$37	0x4ca1bf…
08-01 19:08:05	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0x4422a1…
07-31 20:56:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0xe83fb5…
07-31 20:56:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xb95839…
07-31 20:56:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	23	63¢	$15	0x99a124…
07-31 20:56:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	13	63¢	$8	0x1921c5…
07-29 22:36:20	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	60	87¢	$52	0xfadbee…
07-29 10:49:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	60	89¢	$53	0x95cdc4…
07-28 16:04:25	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	220	93¢	$205	0xedeef8…
07-26 18:54:13	iran leadership change by august 31	No	BUY	70	94¢	$66	0x88150d…
07-24 23:30:40	iran full airspace closure by july 24	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xe36d23…
07-24 21:24:00	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	110	96¢	$105	0x97ea41…
07-24 08:34:27	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	110	92¢	$101	0xa9562a…
07-23 23:45:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x397493…
07-23 20:01:34	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	154	94¢	$145	0x7752dc…
07-23 20:01:06	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x7fc4b0…
07-23 19:32:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0x006085…
07-23 19:29:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0xb072c4…
07-23 14:35:40	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	79	94¢	$74	0xa659f4…
07-23 11:15:06	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	80	62¢	$50	0xee20dc…
07-23 11:15:06	iran full airspace closure by july 27	No	BUY	70	69¢	$48	0x6bc339…
07-23 10:56:45	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	No	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0x7fff27…
07-23 09:22:36	will wti reach 105 in july 2026	No	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0x2204cd…
07-23 08:15:45	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	110	93¢	$103	0x07bc75…
07-22 20:00:45	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	110	95¢	$104	0x6d6713…
07-22 13:43:30	israel closes its airspace by july 24	No	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0xddbfc9…
07-22 00:33:45	iran full airspace closure by july 24	No	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0x0efd54…
07-21 23:06:27	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	40	69¢	$28	0x47e021…
07-21 22:47:01	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xb41ea9…
07-21 20:56:55	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	No	BUY	26	69¢	$18	0x559d55…
07-21 20:07:51	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	110	95¢	$105	0xc950ea…
07-21 14:41:07	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	60	88¢	$53	0x3422b6…
07-20 19:28:12	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	110	96¢	$105	0xb33acc…
07-20 11:32:04	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x66ca39…
07-20 11:30:19	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x93c9ce…
07-18 23:32:37	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163	No	BUY	117	85¢	$100	0xcd768c…
07-18 22:09:22	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163	No	BUY	3	85¢	$2	0xceada3…
07-18 18:37:21	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	No	BUY	90	95¢	$85	0xa88a5f…
07-18 18:35:07	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	138	98¢	$135	0x710ed9…
07-18 18:22:36	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	22	98¢	$22	0xebcb29…
07-18 17:37:48	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	110	95¢	$104	0xf21601…
07-17 21:15:01	will wti reach 110 in july 2026 829	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xc76d04…
07-17 17:57:04	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0xc5404a…
07-17 16:03:55	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	120	86¢	$103	0x16856c…
07-16 03:02:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	120	84¢	$101	0xa8868b…
07-15 22:03:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	130	78¢	$101	0x632c50…
07-15 22:00:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	110	93¢	$102	0x450e0e…
07-15 21:52:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	110	89¢	$98	0x413ce5…
07-14 21:43:23	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163	No	BUY	120	86¢	$103	0xd1042a…
07-14 14:34:58	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0x86916a…
07-14 13:44:08	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0x617627…
07-14 10:12:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	70	81¢	$57	0x498a53…
07-14 09:34:25	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	77	96¢	$73	0xf7583c…
07-13 20:39:46	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xf2842b…