Mushy-Generation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.00K

Unrealized P&L

-$130

Hit rate

74.3%

Resolved

744

Trades

1,898

lifetime

Volume

$102.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$54

Open exposure

$485

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-13

last 09-28 13:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 100 days

Categories

Politics

66% 39% +$6,115

Other

31% 32% -$1,992

Crypto

3% 32% -$114

Sports

0% 40% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	-4,864	-$366	10¢	$-462	-$96	08-05 09:33
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	+389	$35	4¢	$18	-$18	09-28 13:19
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	+535	$8	1¢	$3	-$5	09-28 07:18
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+462	$13	0¢	$2	-$11	05-11 18:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	12	$12.1K	7,304	7,304	+0	Yes	+$2,127	03-01 01:31
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	13	$6.4K	4,788	4,788	+0	Yes	+$832	04-05 07:11
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	31	$5.0K	3,298	3,298	+0	No	+$1,021	03-30 07:00
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	21	$4.9K	7,270	7,270	+0	Yes	+$4,248	02-28 16:54
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	28	$4.5K	3,061	3,061	+0	No	+$281	03-23 15:11
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	16	$4.5K	3,417	3,417	+0	Yes	+$239	03-07 18:06
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	3	$3.6K	2,138	2,138	+0	Yes	+$137	04-16 15:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	23	$2.9K	6,340	6,340	+0	No	+$118	04-15 11:33
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	37	$2.3K	5,463	10,327	-4,864	open	—	08-05 09:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	5	$2.2K	2,474	2,474	+0	Yes	+$247	06-14 22:56
will the dhs shutdown last 60 days or more 988 872 151 791 415 422	16	$2.1K	2,390	2,390	+0	Yes	-$18	03-18 19:53
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	3	$2.0K	1,409	1,409	+0	No	+$20	03-09 15:17
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	13	$2.0K	2,079	4,734	-2,656	No	+$1,062	06-20 08:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	7	$1.8K	1,067	1,067	+0	No	+$149	04-16 18:24
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	11	$1.7K	1,298	1,298	+0	Yes	+$49	03-19 06:58
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	12	$1.5K	2,240	2,240	+0	No	+$5	04-22 14:27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	16	$1.5K	1,472	1,472	+0	No	-$3	05-21 17:28
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	8	$1.4K	3,902	3,902	+0	open	—	07-13 14:27
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	8	$1.3K	1,624	1,624	+0	No	+$136	04-21 14:22
will trump visit china by march 31	8	$1.3K	873	873	+0	No	+$163	03-17 04:34
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 15	7	$1.3K	775	775	+0	No	+$108	03-12 13:50
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	4	$1.2K	2,424	2,424	+0	No	+$326	04-15 16:12
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	8	$1.2K	3,000	3,000	+0	No	-$70	07-29 14:53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$1.1K	1,571	1,571	+0	No	-$663	04-22 16:11
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	4	$1.1K	882	882	+0	Yes	+$270	06-20 13:30
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	6	$1.1K	783	783	+0	Yes	+$36	03-30 11:31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	5	$1.0K	6,667	6,569	+98	No	-$851	04-17 13:19
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	8	$999	1,561	1,561	+0	Yes	+$94	04-29 07:37
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	4	$919	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$101	03-30 18:19
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	14	$869	12,864	7,364	+5,500	No	-$74	04-30 20:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-28 13:19:48	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	BUY	70	37¢	$26	0x779ee5…
09-28 13:19:29	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	SELL	389	7¢	$27	0xa5983a…
09-28 07:18:38	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	BUY	778	8¢	$62	0x3b05f1…
09-28 07:18:21	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	BUY	535	1¢	$8	0xc8d5bd…
08-06 11:21:36	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	600	13¢	$78	0xe95cbd…
08-06 11:21:26	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1,620	11¢	$178	0x89c071…
08-05 09:34:00	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	620	15¢	$93	0x8d2613…
08-05 09:33:30	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,035	9¢	$93	0xbb799f…
08-04 15:43:41	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	813	9¢	$73	0x0bc5fc…
08-04 15:42:45	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	10¢	$1	0xdda08a…
08-04 15:42:41	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,140	10¢	$315	0x937af2…
07-29 18:26:45	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,290	13¢	$300	0x633ffa…
07-29 14:53:21	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	1,000	6¢	$60	0x9e4597…
07-29 10:02:51	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	12¢	$62	0xfef2c3…
07-29 09:33:02	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	13¢	$32	0xfc6730…
07-27 09:29:18	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	SELL	625	3¢	$19	0xb954b5…
07-27 09:29:06	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	350	1¢	$5	0x937b2e…
07-27 09:29:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2,265	0¢	$11	0xa93ba1…
07-27 09:28:57	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0xa859f3…
07-21 14:33:40	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	139	57¢	$79	0xd2ff2d…
07-21 14:12:01	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	61	56¢	$34	0x64ff43…
07-21 14:08:42	Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0xac8d4e…
07-20 15:49:06	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	600	16¢	$96	0xb7c170…
07-13 20:34:07	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x7ebbd8…
07-13 15:24:10	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	400	15¢	$60	0x71899c…
07-13 15:22:04	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	150	30¢	$45	0x698baf…
07-13 14:27:19	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	11¢	$220	0x96cf9d…
07-08 05:59:59	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	123	15¢	$18	0xdb6eb8…
07-08 05:59:46	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	877	15¢	$132	0x6e204d…
07-06 12:24:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	700	14¢	$98	0x5b8207…
07-06 11:13:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	800	14¢	$112	0x837086…
06-30 20:32:34	Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x4c9bb6…
06-30 20:32:22	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	Yes	SELL	522	0¢	$1	0xc8615b…
06-30 20:31:58	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	1,878	0¢	$4	0xa28f68…
06-30 20:31:37	Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0xf185e0…
06-30 20:31:29	Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0xd7c34f…
06-30 20:31:08	will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	Yes	SELL	220	0¢	$0	0xdbfa79…
06-30 20:31:05	Will Bill Cosby be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x8cfcdd…
06-30 20:31:02	Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0xef4e56…
06-30 20:30:59	Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	Yes	SELL	69	0¢	$0	0x759f7a…
06-30 20:29:19	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	Yes	SELL	124	0¢	$0	0x65f274…
06-30 20:28:53	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	114	13¢	$15	0xfb4a07…
06-30 07:28:05	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0x8e51b5…
06-30 05:44:46	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xa3d136…
06-30 05:29:56	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xe9a2b5…
06-30 00:17:31	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	14¢	$4	0xa9f0fc…
06-29 22:42:10	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x3664ea…
06-29 21:45:38	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	14¢	$42	0xa87deb…
06-29 21:39:16	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x6b21db…
06-29 12:32:11	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	14¢	$12	0x4198e2…
06-29 12:28:22	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	800	14¢	$112	0x07d348…
06-29 12:25:49	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	427	13¢	$56	0x687fed…
06-28 18:22:04	will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	Yes	BUY	220	9¢	$19	0x3113b4…
06-28 16:55:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	400	15¢	$60	0xeb06f2…
06-28 16:54:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	Yes	BUY	400	15¢	$60	0xf24493…
06-28 16:43:05	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x632ccf…
06-28 16:42:58	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	Yes	BUY	46	15¢	$7	0x8c67f6…
06-28 16:42:47	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	Yes	BUY	66	15¢	$10	0x905da0…
06-28 16:42:04	iran successfully targets shipping on june 28 20260625225210239	Yes	SELL	464	6¢	$30	0x46893e…
06-28 11:18:43	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	54	76¢	$41	0xb6e4bc…
06-27 15:27:04	iran successfully targets shipping on june 28 20260625225210239	Yes	BUY	250	7¢	$17	0x076aae…
06-27 15:17:22	iran successfully targets shipping on june 28 20260625225210239	Yes	BUY	214	7¢	$15	0xd81c7e…
06-27 15:05:38	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	BUY	797	3¢	$20	0xe0c655…
06-27 08:42:10	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	600	28¢	$168	0xfd98ac…
06-26 06:50:14	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	626	4¢	$28	0xe2aacc…
06-26 06:50:05	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	444	6¢	$24	0x9b56ad…
06-26 06:49:58	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	146	15¢	$21	0x905506…
06-26 06:49:50	Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	SELL	28	24¢	$7	0x6bfea4…
06-26 06:49:44	Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0x126fe1…
06-26 06:49:40	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	139	3¢	$4	0x3ef531…
06-25 19:52:34	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	Yes	BUY	522	5¢	$25	0x667c56…
06-25 19:49:35	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0xb9a9b0…
06-25 19:49:08	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	114	7¢	$8	0xef36e5…
06-25 18:10:10	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	2,000	25¢	$500	0xfd7027…
06-25 13:35:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	200	49¢	$98	0xd5215d…
06-24 19:44:22	Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	75	3¢	$2	0x4f96d1…
06-24 19:41:25	Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x62a325…
06-24 19:37:50	Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	SELL	33	25¢	$8	0x063fed…
06-24 19:37:47	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	SELL	12	35¢	$4	0x618bc4…
06-24 19:35:35	Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x7ab2d9…
06-24 19:34:55	Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x6d0c0b…
06-24 19:34:32	Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x048527…
06-24 19:33:37	Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x1e46ce…
06-24 19:33:02	Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x6d9bb3…
06-24 19:16:40	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd9d01c…
06-24 19:15:47	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	55	22¢	$12	0xe92227…
06-24 19:00:55	Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x962df7…
06-24 18:32:23	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x0a0696…
06-24 17:58:55	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0xf21feb…
06-24 17:57:46	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	652	23¢	$150	0x56bc62…
06-24 13:46:02	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	261	23¢	$60	0x348201…
06-23 20:53:02	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x7b4407…
06-23 20:37:29	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x657dab…
06-23 20:28:16	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	80	5¢	$4	0x5f10f4…
06-23 20:16:13	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x01514a…
06-23 12:30:11	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	139	4¢	$5	0xaa6453…
06-23 12:12:44	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	146	14¢	$21	0xd540da…
06-23 12:12:28	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	444	4¢	$20	0x709b94…
06-23 12:00:43	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	526	6¢	$30	0x214884…
06-23 11:58:01	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x5c1194…