Realized P&L
+$718
Unrealized P&L
+$282
Hit rate
47.2%
Resolved
190
Trades
1,888
lifetime
Volume
$33.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$18
Open exposure
$6.62K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-15
last 10-20 23:04
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 75 days
Categories
Other
81% 27% +$2,374
Sports
9% 9% -$330
Tech
8% 0% -$794
Politics
2% 0% -$532
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
29 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Discord IPO before 2027? No -1,926 -$1,707 93¢ $-1799 -$92 10-02 00:21
Ledger IPO before 2027? No -532 -$482 96¢ $-510 -$29 09-10 19:08
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes -496 -$394 96¢ $-474 -$80 07-10 06:04
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +5,480 $206 9¢ $471 +$265 10-08 21:14
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +1,344 $242 34¢ $457 +$215 09-18 13:15
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No -423 -$309 95¢ $-403 -$94 06-24 21:50
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,128 $109 30¢ $333 +$224 09-14 22:34
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No +600 $95 48¢ $285 +$190 09-14 22:39
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +994 $121 24¢ $239 +$118 10-08 21:01
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? No +850 $264 26¢ $217 -$47 09-06 20:26
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +7,393 $416 2¢ $185 -$231 10-08 21:07
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? Yes +2,584 $341 6¢ $168 -$173 09-20 16:28
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +860 $66 17¢ $146 +$80 10-08 21:08
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +4,680 $133 3¢ $138 +$5 10-16 06:13
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? No +434 $35 32¢ $137 +$102 09-14 22:37
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +1,530 $39 7¢ $106 +$67 10-08 21:06
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +703 $75 14¢ $95 +$20 10-08 21:17
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No -95 -$163 97¢ $-92 +$72 06-11 21:19
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? No -81 -$80 99¢ $-80 $0 09-18 22:00
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes +414 $67 12¢ $52 -$16 10-20 23:04
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +2,625 $4 2¢ $49 +$44 09-09 21:30
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No -46 -$26 97¢ $-45 -$19 06-13 06:25
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No +775 $186 6¢ $43 -$143 09-04 20:11
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? Yes +305 $34 11¢ $32 -$2 09-14 23:08
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes +792 $143 3¢ $23 -$119 07-17 18:42
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128 No +348 $35 6¢ $23 -$12 06-12 22:53
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? Yes +995 $10 1¢ $8 -$1 06-17 18:54
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? Yes +998 $12 0¢ $4 -$8 06-19 04:04
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +2,551 $8 0¢ $4 -$4 07-11 13:58
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? Yes +305 $50 0¢ $1 -$49 09-21 11:20