Calm-Dusk — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$228

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.4%

Resolved

Trades

4,191

lifetime

Volume

$1.74M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$416

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 08-11 22:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

70% 67% +$226

Other

30% 100% +$2

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 126 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	130	$192.7K	151,240	48,145	+103,095	open	—	03-31 14:11
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	112	$115.8K	65,299	54,112	+11,187	open	—	05-31 02:43
Trump out as President by April 30?	32	$103.5K	63,807	40,745	+23,062	open	—	04-26 21:45
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	27	$76.5K	45,139	32,258	+12,882	open	—	06-17 17:06
iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	11	$59.6K	53,149	8,550	+44,598	open	—	08-10 13:09
Netanyahu out by May 31?	24	$50.9K	39,854	11,647	+28,208	open	—	05-25 16:28
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	318	$47.4K	23,569	25,967	-2,398	open	—	03-08 23:39
will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	128	$40.2K	21,216	21,330	-114	open	—	03-01 21:21
Iran leadership change by March 13?	71	$38.6K	19,927	19,706	+221	open	—	03-14 05:03
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	11	$38.0K	19,208	19,208	+0	open	—	07-26 11:17
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	10	$33.3K	16,798	16,798	+0	open	—	07-31 21:43
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	61	$30.4K	16,649	19,478	-2,830	open	—	06-19 19:42
us forces enter iran by march 7	22	$28.0K	14,222	14,222	+0	open	—	03-08 05:00
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	67	$28.0K	15,201	15,164	+37	open	—	05-12 15:15
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	77	$27.9K	14,335	14,551	-216	open	—	03-08 22:32
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	40	$26.6K	15,000	15,000	+0	open	—	07-28 18:14
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	13	$26.3K	13,197	13,197	+0	open	—	03-08 22:35
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	10	$25.4K	13,052	13,052	+0	open	—	05-09 21:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	10	$22.6K	13,173	9,674	+3,499	No	+$164	05-09 00:07
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 5 2026	13	$22.2K	11,261	11,308	-47	open	—	03-05 20:34
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	21	$21.6K	14,573	7,740	+6,832	open	—	07-26 05:31
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	132	$21.4K	11,007	11,006	+1	open	—	07-25 18:23
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	12	$19.8K	10,116	10,116	+0	open	—	07-11 05:44
will usd fall to 1pt6m iranian rials by march 31 746	27	$18.5K	9,705	9,085	+620	open	—	03-05 02:18
iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	8	$18.5K	19,370	0	+19,370	open	—	07-14 18:47
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	14	$18.2K	18,716	0	+18,716	open	—	06-17 14:06
Iran Nuke before 2027?	29	$17.6K	18,758	0	+18,758	open	—	08-10 13:21
iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	14	$16.4K	17,328	0	+17,328	open	—	07-19 14:46
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	40	$15.4K	15,731	262	+15,470	open	—	03-11 05:40
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	34	$14.4K	12,072	3,388	+8,684	open	—	04-22 15:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 22:30:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	800	90¢	$720	0x3dc4fd…
08-11 18:29:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	953	99¢	$945	0xe96371…
08-11 15:55:37	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553	No	BUY	1	42¢	$0	0xf8aa57…
08-11 04:03:15	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	SELL	2,491	99¢	$2,476	0x486859…
08-11 01:56:28	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	120	98¢	$117	0xc656ba…
08-11 01:55:39	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	5,002	97¢	$4,857	0x140c34…
08-10 15:48:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	800	90¢	$722	0x06c08a…
08-10 13:33:34	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	3,385	97¢	$3,284	0xa05dcb…
08-10 13:21:09	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	1,294	95¢	$1,230	0x1e3f74…
08-10 13:09:03	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	BUY	31,236	99¢	$30,777	0xca947a…
08-09 17:29:39	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	699	98¢	$686	0xa1847b…
08-09 17:29:00	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$982	0x3c341d…
08-08 03:42:25	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xcd2b29…
08-07 18:37:06	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	300	98¢	$295	0xf05c56…
08-07 13:27:45	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	480	94¢	$452	0x02b975…
08-07 13:20:09	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	159	98¢	$156	0xa6ef7d…
08-05 13:24:00	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	No	BUY	392	91¢	$357	0xbdf592…
08-05 13:22:56	us charges hormuz fees by december 31 2026 20260713151243236	No	BUY	3,608	91¢	$3,283	0x7a22eb…
08-05 02:42:47	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	BUY	4,000	98¢	$3,920	0xbfbb53…
08-04 19:56:26	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	SELL	345	37¢	$128	0x6ab27d…
08-04 19:56:21	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	SELL	15	37¢	$6	0x793a87…
08-04 19:52:45	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	SELL	360	36¢	$130	0x240af3…
08-04 19:47:24	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	SELL	309	36¢	$111	0x9e23e5…
08-04 19:47:06	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	SELL	51	36¢	$18	0xf85287…
08-04 19:45:45	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	SELL	337	33¢	$111	0x0abba9…
08-04 19:45:44	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	SELL	23	33¢	$8	0xa81510…
08-04 19:44:06	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	SELL	15	46¢	$7	0x6837b4…
08-04 19:43:17	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	SELL	57	40¢	$23	0x809859…
08-04 19:42:56	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	372	34¢	$126	0x59752e…
08-04 19:18:17	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	SELL	700	29¢	$203	0x3d8500…
08-04 13:55:30	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	800	28¢	$224	0x3e2549…
08-04 13:47:53	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	BUY	1,040	30¢	$312	0x1aed0b…
08-03 15:16:18	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	SELL	140	98¢	$137	0x592f33…
08-03 14:04:24	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	SELL	800	98¢	$786	0xb26734…
08-03 13:58:33	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	SELL	3,500	98¢	$3,437	0x3bda27…
08-03 08:39:51	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	SELL	15	98¢	$14	0xa274f8…
08-02 02:56:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	369	98¢	$361	0x320677…
08-02 02:56:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	1,106	98¢	$1,082	0x56fa5e…
08-02 02:56:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	1,558	98¢	$1,525	0x5af037…
08-01 18:47:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	1,011	73¢	$738	0x4615b4…
08-01 18:26:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0x53d804…
08-01 18:22:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	910	63¢	$571	0x682e26…
08-01 18:22:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	134	60¢	$80	0x8ec50c…
08-01 18:14:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	614	93¢	$573	0x1b37eb…
08-01 18:03:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xda06da…
08-01 18:03:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	594	71¢	$422	0x1a0d88…
08-01 18:02:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	600	72¢	$432	0x8906fa…
08-01 17:53:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	486	93¢	$453	0x841a27…
08-01 17:41:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	123	92¢	$114	0xcf3590…
08-01 17:16:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	700	93¢	$652	0x51f954…
08-01 17:08:59	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	4,000	94¢	$3,780	0x048119…
08-01 14:35:30	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by august 31 20260720003950635	No	BUY	640	97¢	$623	0x33c0f3…
08-01 14:31:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	600	72¢	$432	0x5391a5…
08-01 13:29:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	1,000	76¢	$760	0xdc3374…
08-01 00:41:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	1,311	82¢	$1,075	0x498745…
07-31 21:45:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	851	66¢	$562	0x1e4c9e…
07-31 21:45:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	460	70¢	$322	0x741185…
07-31 21:43:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	Yes	SELL	16,798	100¢	$16,765	0x31f3e7…
07-31 21:03:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	1,411	99¢	$1,401	0xf914ef…
07-31 21:03:02	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	997	92¢	$917	0x0995bd…
07-31 21:01:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	349	99¢	$346	0xbfe24c…
07-31 18:55:53	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	997	92¢	$917	0xd93325…
07-31 18:49:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	222	99¢	$219	0x840a7d…
07-31 18:47:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	600	99¢	$593	0x9fb870…
07-31 18:24:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	1,512	99¢	$1,494	0x2944b0…
07-31 18:22:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	1,349	99¢	$1,333	0xe2bbc3…
07-31 18:01:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	139	99¢	$137	0xe5eebe…
07-31 18:00:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	Yes	SELL	587	100¢	$586	0xb3f8c1…
07-31 14:55:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	1,994	89¢	$1,774	0xb65c16…
07-31 14:02:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2,000	91¢	$1,820	0x614ee4…
07-31 13:44:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	1,987	89¢	$1,769	0x68c48b…
07-31 12:52:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	Yes	BUY	5,592	100¢	$5,576	0xaa21d1…
07-31 00:43:50	will netanyahu publicly insult trump by july 31 20260724180328774	No	BUY	741	99¢	$732	0xc97db6…
07-30 03:58:17	will netanyahu publicly insult trump by july 31 20260724180328774	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x04032c…
07-30 03:58:14	will netanyahu publicly insult trump by july 31 20260724180328774	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x618304…
07-30 03:58:14	will netanyahu publicly insult trump by july 31 20260724180328774	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x57d866…
07-30 03:58:12	will netanyahu publicly insult trump by july 31 20260724180328774	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9af9c2…
07-30 03:58:12	will netanyahu publicly insult trump by july 31 20260724180328774	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x152f7e…
07-30 01:58:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	Yes	BUY	4,907	99¢	$4,867	0x2d582f…
07-30 01:38:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	Yes	BUY	2,200	100¢	$2,189	0x1d8660…
07-30 01:30:50	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	Yes	BUY	113	92¢	$104	0xe6e78a…
07-30 00:56:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	Yes	BUY	887	92¢	$812	0xc48a2b…
07-30 00:49:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x1d42f2…
07-29 23:09:56	will netanyahu publicly insult trump by july 31 20260724180328774	No	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0xbe7572…
07-29 16:11:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	Yes	BUY	6,490	98¢	$6,391	0xbf3c91…
07-29 14:36:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	Yes	BUY	862	98¢	$843	0x195913…
07-29 14:33:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	Yes	BUY	1,380	98¢	$1,351	0x0b8078…
07-29 14:23:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	Yes	BUY	120	98¢	$117	0xe8ff4c…
07-29 14:00:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	Yes	BUY	500	98¢	$490	0x6ddd7b…
07-29 13:43:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	Yes	BUY	305	98¢	$298	0x63e972…
07-28 18:14:23	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	92¢	$4,600	0x7a786f…
07-28 17:49:01	mohammed ghalibaf out as speaker of iran parliament by july 31 2026 20260710000011403	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x486a9a…
07-28 17:48:52	mohammed ghalibaf out as speaker of iran parliament by july 31 2026 20260710000011403	No	BUY	1,523	98¢	$1,499	0xf3bd90…
07-28 17:45:49	will trump praise benjamin netanyahu by july 31 20260724182749274	Yes	SELL	103	95¢	$98	0x1c2117…
07-28 17:45:49	will trump praise benjamin netanyahu by july 31 20260724182749274	Yes	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0x187b97…
07-28 14:47:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	Yes	BUY	149	99¢	$147	0x8c2737…
07-28 14:46:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	Yes	BUY	338	99¢	$334	0x07d5b0…
07-28 12:30:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x2cc7f7…
07-28 11:04:19	will netanyahu publicly insult trump by july 31 20260724180328774	No	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0xfdee58…
07-27 17:36:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	Yes	BUY	33	99¢	$32	0xc1f704…