Calm-Dusk — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$228

Unrealized P&L

+$279

Hit rate

98.4%

Resolved

Trades

3,695

lifetime

Volume

$1.36M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$368

Open exposure

$14.6K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-01 03:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

64% 67% +$226

Other

35% 100% +$2

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+10,000	$8,550	86¢	$8.5K	+$0	07-01 07:14
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+3,112	$2,769	92¢	$2.8K	+$78	05-28 05:44
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	+2,349	$2,119	93¢	$2.2K	+$69	06-06 06:18
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	+1,031	$895	100¢	$1.0K	+$132	06-14 16:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	130	$192.7K	151,240	48,145	+103,095	open	—	03-31 14:11
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	112	$115.8K	65,299	54,112	+11,187	open	—	05-31 02:43
Trump out as President by April 30?	32	$103.5K	63,807	40,745	+23,062	open	—	04-26 21:45
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	27	$76.5K	45,139	32,258	+12,882	open	—	06-17 17:06
Netanyahu out by May 31?	24	$50.9K	39,854	11,647	+28,208	open	—	05-25 16:28
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	318	$47.4K	23,569	25,967	-2,398	open	—	03-08 23:39
will usd reach 1pt7m iranian rials by february 28	128	$40.2K	21,216	21,330	-114	open	—	03-01 21:21
Iran leadership change by March 13?	71	$38.6K	19,927	19,706	+221	open	—	03-14 05:03
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	61	$30.4K	16,649	19,478	-2,830	open	—	06-19 19:42
us forces enter iran by march 7	22	$28.0K	14,222	14,222	+0	open	—	03-08 05:00
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	67	$28.0K	15,201	15,164	+37	open	—	05-12 15:15
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	77	$27.9K	14,335	14,551	-216	open	—	03-08 22:32
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	13	$26.3K	13,197	13,197	+0	open	—	03-08 22:35
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	10	$25.4K	13,052	13,052	+0	open	—	05-09 21:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	10	$22.6K	13,173	9,674	+3,499	No	+$164	05-09 00:07
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 5 2026	13	$22.2K	11,261	11,308	-47	open	—	03-05 20:34
will usd fall to 1pt6m iranian rials by march 31 746	27	$18.5K	9,705	9,085	+620	open	—	03-05 02:18
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	14	$18.2K	18,716	0	+18,716	open	—	06-17 14:06
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	40	$15.4K	15,731	262	+15,470	open	—	03-11 05:40
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	34	$14.4K	12,072	3,388	+8,684	open	—	04-22 15:41
Iran leadership change by April 30?	14	$14.0K	12,874	1,747	+11,127	open	—	04-26 13:25
will trump talk to ali khamenei in february	53	$13.1K	6,008	7,360	-1,351	open	—	02-28 21:50
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	29	$12.4K	6,556	7,056	-500	open	—	03-11 20:37
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	19	$12.4K	6,492	6,581	-89	open	—	03-14 20:01
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 1 334	37	$12.3K	9,275	3,382	+5,893	open	—	03-02 06:33
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	18	$11.2K	11,284	0	+11,284	open	—	05-16 01:11
will turkey strike iran by march 31	66	$11.0K	5,754	6,344	-590	open	—	03-12 22:07
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	44	$10.4K	10,446	0	+10,446	open	—	06-22 11:26
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 7 2026	13	$10.3K	5,219	5,219	+0	open	—	03-07 20:46
will qatar strike iran by march 31	81	$10.2K	11,581	9,520	+2,061	open	—	03-04 16:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 07:14:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	85¢	$2,550	0x9a6525…
07-01 03:42:47	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	442	99¢	$438	0x2dcad0…
06-30 19:36:26	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	690	86¢	$594	0x37e088…
06-30 19:26:04	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	86¢	$430	0x83b5b7…
06-30 19:11:25	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$6	0xf7cb5d…
06-30 19:11:02	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	86¢	$430	0xa464f0…
06-30 19:08:58	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	164	86¢	$141	0x2e5d3e…
06-30 18:56:01	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	86¢	$430	0x40d47b…
06-30 18:55:05	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xcf3378…
06-30 18:40:59	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	86¢	$430	0x7ab8f9…
06-30 18:37:22	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	71	86¢	$61	0x31c038…
06-30 18:28:04	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	65	86¢	$56	0x4409a9…
06-30 07:27:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	85¢	$1,700	0x3b05db…
06-30 03:19:40	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xac91a7…
06-30 03:18:17	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf9cdea…
06-30 03:16:59	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xc00793…
06-30 03:15:58	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xea7265…
06-30 03:14:20	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x41030d…
06-30 03:13:16	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x63bb06…
06-30 03:12:08	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf63c7b…
06-29 23:54:14	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	SELL	345	99¢	$342	0x01c429…
06-29 23:47:43	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	SELL	255	99¢	$253	0x3bc6d2…
06-29 13:10:07	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	86¢	$1,720	0x19b9e2…
06-28 23:59:07	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	BUY	87	99¢	$86	0x9a0397…
06-28 00:07:19	will iran be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003054	Yes	SELL	83	76¢	$63	0xe9dc2e…
06-27 23:45:17	will iran be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003054	Yes	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xad0978…
06-27 21:37:07	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	BUY	600	90¢	$542	0xaea7c6…
06-27 11:55:37	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x33fdc7…
06-27 06:01:34	will iran be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003054	Yes	SELL	111	71¢	$78	0x672aac…
06-27 04:57:14	fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 first corner	Egypt	BUY	189	93¢	$175	0x623605…
06-27 04:16:20	will iran be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003054	Yes	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0x82d244…
06-27 03:17:23	fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 first corner	Egypt	BUY	94	93¢	$88	0x7edd2f…
06-27 03:17:08	fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 first corner	Egypt	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0x3e2a0b…
06-27 01:29:46	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	77	97¢	$75	0x176cbb…
06-27 01:05:37	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0x238147…
06-27 00:58:53	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	BUY	203	99¢	$202	0x62b5dc…
06-27 00:58:47	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	BUY	423	99¢	$420	0xe3a518…
06-27 00:57:10	fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 first corner	Egypt	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0xb3ebed…
06-26 19:04:41	fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 first corner	Egypt	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x61f002…
06-26 14:15:06	fifwc egy irn 2026 06 26 first corner	Egypt	BUY	150	60¢	$90	0x8cab35…
06-26 06:14:56	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	273	99¢	$271	0x071c1c…
06-25 23:55:44	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xa58bcc…
06-25 22:11:34	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	3,723	99¢	$3,693	0x3bc7bc…
06-23 16:40:40	will iran be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003054	Yes	SELL	731	28¢	$208	0xbe24c8…
06-22 11:26:25	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	698	99¢	$693	0xbf366c…
06-22 11:12:28	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x3e7820…
06-22 11:05:37	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1,333	99¢	$1,325	0xd44341…
06-22 10:58:13	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x98b953…
06-22 10:56:52	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc9ad61…
06-22 10:49:16	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x9616f0…
06-22 10:12:46	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x148111…
06-22 09:31:50	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xaa4542…
06-22 09:06:08	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	116	99¢	$115	0xdda949…
06-22 08:17:02	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	131	99¢	$130	0xc19146…
06-22 08:00:37	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x4814d8…
06-22 07:28:13	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3feb65…
06-22 06:31:05	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7bc6b3…
06-22 06:30:46	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa945d4…
06-22 06:30:28	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd8561d…
06-22 06:30:25	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5aff2c…
06-22 06:24:28	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1b505b…
06-22 06:23:58	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1d80fa…
06-22 03:23:38	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xf39105…
06-22 03:23:16	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4891d5…
06-22 03:20:35	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcb7555…
06-22 03:11:23	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0x6a3b28…
06-22 02:34:11	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	4,446	100¢	$4,424	0x3de82d…
06-22 02:33:16	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,845	99¢	$2,828	0xf1b706…
06-22 02:14:10	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$497	0x6a4723…
06-22 01:48:38	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x1c6f90…
06-22 01:47:35	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xdca8a1…
06-22 01:21:38	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x73d351…
06-22 01:19:41	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x04c46c…
06-22 00:53:49	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x9b5c0c…
06-22 00:32:38	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4e7299…
06-21 23:51:16	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x72ad62…
06-21 22:20:20	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x9c064d…
06-21 22:20:01	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x348daf…
06-21 22:19:14	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3f9654…
06-21 21:51:32	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd2c3ac…
06-21 21:10:29	will iran be an advancing group stage third place team at the 2026 world cup 20260612150003054	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0xda78fd…
06-21 20:44:55	fifwc bel irn 2026 06 21 team total away 0pt5	Under	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0xccc35f…
06-21 20:43:22	fifwc bel irn 2026 06 21 team total away 0pt5	Under	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x1d8fb3…
06-21 19:27:05	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x41a798…
06-21 17:22:17	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x68d8fd…
06-21 16:09:49	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$994	0xd84071…
06-21 15:57:25	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	167	99¢	$166	0xf53f91…
06-21 15:09:38	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x832586…
06-21 14:20:59	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xd2ff20…
06-21 13:55:19	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3b7b22…
06-21 13:54:56	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x826c32…
06-21 13:47:25	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	1,686	99¢	$1,676	0x2dd53f…
06-19 19:42:34	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	2,456	92¢	$2,272	0x6a4cdd…
06-19 09:13:49	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	2,456	90¢	$2,206	0xc30df6…
06-19 01:34:50	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	2,175	89¢	$1,944	0xd1fa3d…
06-18 12:49:55	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	2,737	89¢	$2,433	0x560af3…
06-18 01:09:46	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x91a6cb…
06-18 01:08:53	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	67	94¢	$63	0x3b879c…
06-18 01:07:52	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	468	94¢	$439	0x9055b1…
06-18 01:07:52	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0x516bfa…