Piercing-Conifer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

82.6%

Resolved

329

Trades

647

lifetime

Volume

$8.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$11

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-24 22:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Other

80% 88% +$3

Crypto

11% 86% +$0

Politics

7% 78% +$0

Sports

3% 60% $0

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+8	$8	100¢	$8	$0	10-24 22:16
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+2	$2	100¢	$2	+$0	10-07 00:27
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+1	$1	100¢	$1	+$0	09-06 05:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will John Walz win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	4	$89	44	44	+0	No	$0	05-11 19:49
highest temperature in chongqing on april 4 2026 31c	1	$67	67	0	+67	No	+$0	04-04 04:42
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 17?	3	$65	32	32	+0	No	$0	05-17 09:26
nflx above 130 on march 27 2026	1	$63	64	0	+64	No	+$0	03-27 04:25
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	3	$60	30	30	-0	No	+$0	04-30 15:08
highest temperature in jeddah on april 22 2026 26c	3	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	04-22 00:35
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 16?	5	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-16 11:27
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on May 17?	5	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-17 10:00
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?	3	$59	30	30	+0	No	$0	05-09 05:41
Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	3	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-16 21:16
will the drama opening weekend box office be between 11m and 12m	1	$57	58	0	+58	No	+$0	04-05 05:42
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 86°F or higher on May 7?	6	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-07 06:23
Will Alfonso López Chau and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	04-13 11:56
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 7?	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-07 08:04
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 5?	4	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	05-05 00:32
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 12?	5	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-11 22:14
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	2	$55	28	28	+0	No	+$0	05-11 22:03
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?	2	$54	27	27	+0	Yes	+$0	05-08 13:38
will the march 2026 unemployment rate be 3pt9	2	$53	53	0	+53	No	+$0	04-02 04:21
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-15 19:16
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 16?	2	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	05-16 20:22
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 16?	7	$53	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-15 16:09
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on May 4?	2	$53	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-04 04:01
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on May 7?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-06 21:36
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 10?	3	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-10 04:22
foreign intervention in gaza by march 31	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	03-30 03:54
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on May 17?	4	$51	26	26	+0	No	+$0	05-17 01:19
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 15?	3	$50	25	25	+0	No	$0	05-15 03:44
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 2?	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	+$0	05-01 22:14
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$49	25	25	+0	No	$0	02-06 00:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 22:16:06	Will Leeds United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x81b99c…
10-11 14:45:51	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x34c1d2…
10-11 14:44:57	Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xcba76f…
10-11 14:44:06	Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x44af88…
10-11 14:43:15	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xcd0adf…
10-11 14:42:19	Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xcdc11e…
10-11 14:41:25	Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xdfcc5c…
10-07 00:27:48	Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9d8948…
09-21 00:07:37	Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3ce9f5…
09-19 16:06:24	Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x61a15f…
09-14 07:32:00	Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa01b87…
09-06 05:02:25	Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe1f96f…
08-28 00:16:00	Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x594819…
08-13 12:18:01	Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x378598…
08-11 06:34:12	Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x013c25…
08-05 23:38:32	Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xdbdddd…
07-24 23:00:22	Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xe5f90a…
07-22 11:06:19	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x127d77…
07-21 07:32:43	Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x9a333a…
07-21 07:31:46	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xfa839e…
07-21 07:30:54	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x8a9f6f…
07-15 15:49:26	Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9cf248…
07-11 02:18:14	Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa580c3…
07-02 15:12:49	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf88f92…
06-29 10:59:26	Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf39847…
06-25 23:50:58	Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7fc7ab…
06-22 19:50:40	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xf211ba…
06-22 19:49:43	Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xe74dfe…
06-22 19:48:47	Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x296437…
06-20 06:02:11	Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0abdaf…
06-18 06:56:29	Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xa03cf4…
06-06 01:39:01	Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc0a471…
05-19 12:07:14	Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc6ad80…
05-17 15:06:48	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 17?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x406b5c…
05-17 14:51:50	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 18?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdef00e…
05-17 12:03:07	Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 23m?	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xf7cd45…
05-17 11:16:11	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x1f9358…
05-17 10:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on May 17?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x96ac98…
05-17 09:45:44	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on May 17?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xce4fe7…
05-17 09:43:26	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on May 17?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xef32d1…
05-17 09:42:19	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on May 17?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xaad94e…
05-17 09:38:25	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 17?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x68f611…
05-17 09:26:06	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 17?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x92f25b…
05-17 08:22:45	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on May 17?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa1c66f…
05-17 06:24:24	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 17?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x998945…
05-17 06:17:47	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 17?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x2074fa…
05-17 03:56:58	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 17?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xcead47…
05-17 02:55:44	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 17?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x358992…
05-17 01:19:50	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on May 17?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x398500…
05-17 01:07:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on May 17?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7e62d9…
05-17 01:06:22	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on May 17?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x4c697d…
05-17 00:30:24	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe68610…
05-17 00:04:04	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 17?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x6ca976…
05-17 00:00:02	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 17?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x961d16…
05-16 23:59:50	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on May 17?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$14	0xbe1452…
05-16 23:48:45	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on May 17?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$14	0x74c8fb…
05-16 21:59:52	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 17?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0xc9017b…
05-16 21:16:48	Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x9e1aed…
05-16 21:11:38	Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xf65ccc…
05-16 20:49:42	Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x220c56…
05-16 20:22:43	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 16?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x8799d6…
05-16 16:51:33	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xcd11a9…
05-16 15:01:22	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 16?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xe9f18d…
05-16 14:47:51	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 17?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x8aad29…
05-16 12:04:47	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on May 17?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x97dcd1…
05-16 11:27:32	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 16?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x4271ec…
05-16 11:27:17	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 16?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$4	0x03a0b0…
05-16 10:33:52	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 16?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x5bec69…
05-16 09:48:38	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 16?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x8eb67f…
05-16 09:46:22	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 16?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xf1718b…
05-16 06:52:04	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 16?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x75652f…
05-16 04:54:54	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 16?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x52207d…
05-15 23:05:31	Will Cyprus win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfca1f8…
05-15 22:02:55	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xe7169a…
05-15 21:59:22	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of May 11 2026?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x2e9504…
05-15 21:26:01	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 16?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xfdc372…
05-15 19:21:45	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xc5fec2…
05-15 19:16:59	Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0xb2d7fe…
05-15 17:08:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x9e6e19…
05-15 16:09:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 16?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9be9d1…
05-15 16:09:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 16?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x89f917…
05-15 16:09:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 16?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x70e601…
05-15 16:09:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 16?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5c017c…
05-15 16:09:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 16?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4a55aa…
05-15 16:09:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 16?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x341eab…
05-15 15:19:08	Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xa463cd…
05-15 10:44:13	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 15?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x3907c8…
05-15 10:42:47	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 16?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xb8fe92…
05-15 10:14:28	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 15?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5f9305…
05-15 10:01:11	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 15?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x3e0693…
05-15 09:28:56	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on May 16?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xf2c512…
05-15 08:17:20	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on May 16?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd48bf0…
05-15 08:11:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of May 11 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xc8c2f9…
05-15 04:56:31	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 15?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x44828c…
05-15 04:21:54	Will the lowest temperature in London be -1°C or below on May 15?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xccda18…
05-15 04:21:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of May 11 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa19987…
05-15 04:19:49	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on May 15?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x10bbf4…
05-15 04:10:26	Will the lowest temperature in London be -1°C or below on May 15?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x7c7391…
05-15 04:09:56	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on May 15?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf8ae09…
05-15 03:56:29	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 15?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x2cb9ca…