Fussy-Defeat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8.05K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.94K

Hit rate

80.4%

Resolved

381

Trades

8,120

lifetime

Volume

$201.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

$9.33K

28 positions

First seen

2026-01-19

last 10-28 15:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 155 days

Categories

Other

70% 58% +$7,539

Politics

29% 59% +$731

Crypto

1% 30% -$216

Tech

0% 0% -$1

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% 0% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 154 trades/day

Open positions (28) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	+5,144	$2,311	62¢	$3.2K	+$878	10-28 15:46
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	+3,239	$2,557	88¢	$2.9K	+$310	10-16 20:16
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	+1,088	$813	97¢	$1.1K	+$238	10-28 12:25
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	+788	$653	92¢	$728	+$76	10-23 16:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	+627	$570	97¢	$607	+$36	10-27 17:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	+456	-$9	90¢	$413	+$422	10-27 18:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	+153	-$21	95¢	$145	+$167	10-27 17:52
iran oman hormuz agreement by october 31	No	+99	$83	98¢	$97	+$14	10-24 21:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	No	+60	$54	92¢	$55	+$1	10-25 18:52
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+185	$5	16¢	$31	+$25	10-28 06:08
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+365	$12	7¢	$27	+$15	10-13 15:04
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+806	$19	2¢	$20	+$1	10-27 18:14
russia ukraine peace talks by november 30 2026	No	+120	$51	15¢	$18	-$33	10-28 14:19
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+50	$165	34¢	$17	-$148	10-22 14:36
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-119	-$45	12¢	$-15	+$31	05-25 19:27
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+1,127	$2	1¢	$10	+$8	10-28 20:05
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	+162	-$2	4¢	$7	+$9	09-20 12:48
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	+135	$27	5¢	$7	-$20	10-27 15:12
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+700	$7	1¢	$6	-$1	08-15 07:18
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+525	$9	1¢	$6	-$4	10-08 12:12
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+284	$5	2¢	$5	+$0	10-15 01:56
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?	Yes	+134	$6	3¢	$4	-$2	10-24 11:40
russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189	No	+27	$109	12¢	$3	-$106	10-19 23:38
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+63	-$16	3¢	$2	+$18	10-21 00:51
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+3	$7	6¢	$0	-$7	10-22 14:44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?	Yes	+50	$6	0¢	$0	-$5	10-11 22:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	Yes	+4	-$10	1¢	$0	+$10	10-24 10:08
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	+0	-$4	6¢	$0	+$4	10-21 13:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	227	$7.2K	12,192	7,048	+5,144	open	—	10-28 15:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	135	$6.1K	7,877	8,434	-558	No	-$163	04-13 11:13
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	144	$5.5K	7,361	7,311	+50	open	—	10-22 14:36
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	33	$5.4K	2,905	2,905	+0	Yes	+$53	07-31 00:47
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	374	$5.1K	8,308	9,153	-845	Yes	+$96	03-30 18:25
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	65	$5.0K	4,792	3,648	+1,145	No	+$393	09-28 15:04
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	90	$4.9K	3,871	2,783	+1,088	open	—	10-28 12:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of October 12 2026?	66	$4.6K	3,172	2,988	+184	No	+$260	10-16 19:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	61	$4.3K	3,367	2,911	+456	open	—	10-27 18:36
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	31	$4.2K	12,274	2,274	+10,000	No	+$12	08-01 10:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	78	$4.0K	3,567	3,414	+153	open	—	10-27 17:52
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	74	$3.9K	2,431	2,327	+104	No	+$225	09-30 05:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	88	$3.4K	3,837	3,561	+275	Yes	+$279	10-13 16:17
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	99	$3.3K	1,685	1,697	-12	Yes	+$10	03-10 15:38
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	22	$3.0K	1,517	1,517	+0	Yes	+$28	07-27 19:48
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	80	$2.9K	4,430	4,403	+27	open	—	10-19 23:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of September 7 2026?	18	$2.9K	1,994	1,990	+4	No	+$1,112	09-11 20:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?	43	$2.8K	2,135	2,135	+0	Yes	+$11	07-28 09:49
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	20	$2.6K	3,239	0	+3,239	open	—	10-16 20:16
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	64	$2.4K	4,794	4,609	+185	open	—	10-28 06:08
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	61	$2.4K	1,936	1,936	+0	No	+$428	09-17 04:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?	130	$2.3K	9,529	10,452	-924	Yes	+$289	04-14 13:38
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	100	$2.3K	10,265	10,265	+0	No	+$82	08-20 07:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	93	$2.3K	1,617	1,333	+283	Yes	+$95	05-18 18:24
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	17	$2.3K	1,301	1,301	+0	Yes	+$117	08-02 16:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	70	$2.2K	8,016	8,016	+0	Yes	+$253	10-27 14:59
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	163	$2.1K	3,189	2,968	+222	No	+$473	03-31 16:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of October 5 2026?	21	$2.0K	2,578	0	+2,578	No	+$530	10-09 10:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	49	$1.9K	2,677	2,640	+37	Yes	+$31	04-14 23:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	69	$1.9K	3,021	3,008	+13	Yes	+$236	10-20 01:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 20:05:53	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x87bdc0…
10-28 15:46:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0x876d4c…
10-28 15:45:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0xbada3e…
10-28 15:45:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	19	49¢	$9	0xd426b4…
10-28 15:38:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x20ccfb…
10-28 15:37:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x74056f…
10-28 15:31:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0x8cdb24…
10-28 15:31:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x8dd8e5…
10-28 15:31:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x1c515c…
10-28 15:31:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	21	51¢	$11	0x60d902…
10-28 15:28:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	93	51¢	$47	0x3cf9ef…
10-28 15:06:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x0af198…
10-28 14:59:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0x3aa699…
10-28 14:59:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	600	55¢	$330	0x9d9265…
10-28 14:52:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xc65310…
10-28 14:52:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0x7f1084…
10-28 14:49:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x060557…
10-28 14:49:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0xe6eb65…
10-28 14:47:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xae364f…
10-28 14:47:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x6d831b…
10-28 14:39:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x0d2636…
10-28 14:25:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xa068ef…
10-28 14:25:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	35	59¢	$20	0x8c48ea…
10-28 14:22:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x0d22d0…
10-28 14:22:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x40a76d…
10-28 14:21:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x1339f1…
10-28 14:20:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	62	59¢	$36	0xdba9bf…
10-28 14:19:23	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	120	18¢	$22	0xdf9e8b…
10-28 14:15:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xe46463…
10-28 14:14:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xfc3a44…
10-28 14:14:20	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x399320…
10-28 14:12:20	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 28?	Down	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x997c2b…
10-28 14:11:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x129673…
10-28 13:57:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	12	60¢	$8	0x3f9b22…
10-28 13:56:25	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x1bc6ea…
10-28 13:48:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x22a3d3…
10-28 13:46:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	500	59¢	$295	0x53bf8e…
10-28 13:12:25	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0xf39c64…
10-28 12:25:34	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xce252d…
10-28 09:56:34	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	80	21¢	$17	0xfc1c36…
10-28 07:44:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xad2a15…
10-28 07:42:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	1	57¢	$0	0x06d161…
10-28 07:42:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	99	57¢	$57	0x9657a6…
10-28 07:42:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	99	57¢	$57	0x414918…
10-28 07:41:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x6fa638…
10-28 07:23:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xf34cf4…
10-28 07:20:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x3f3848…
10-28 07:20:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x27f700…
10-28 07:16:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	29	60¢	$17	0xa5b089…
10-28 07:11:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	185	58¢	$107	0xcee40a…
10-28 06:37:11	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	298	1¢	$2	0x4d2383…
10-28 06:36:56	Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	302	1¢	$2	0x1a54bc…
10-28 06:08:13	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0xe8cc50…
10-28 03:48:24	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	18¢	$9	0x520567…
10-28 02:47:14	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xf3f56c…
10-28 02:37:45	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x32353f…
10-28 01:11:48	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	SELL	66	62¢	$41	0xcd983d…
10-27 23:54:56	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	240	20¢	$48	0x20e372…
10-27 23:44:54	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 28?	Up	BUY	66	48¢	$32	0x94a2e3…
10-27 22:56:44	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	20¢	$15	0xe7831d…
10-27 19:07:08	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	300	18¢	$54	0x8ee1db…
10-27 18:36:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x3eb589…
10-27 18:14:17	Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	718	2¢	$16	0xb30d69…
10-27 18:13:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	56	72¢	$40	0x341a14…
10-27 17:59:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x1f2f9a…
10-27 17:55:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0xa6b173…
10-27 17:53:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	BUY	24	93¢	$22	0xc1d415…
10-27 17:52:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x1aa6db…
10-27 17:46:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x7dfde4…
10-27 17:46:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	12	70¢	$8	0xe1a568…
10-27 17:35:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0x8f0dae…
10-27 17:34:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xf1f819…
10-27 17:34:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x80d98b…
10-27 17:34:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x1546d4…
10-27 17:34:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	15	70¢	$10	0x09d658…
10-27 17:25:24	Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x44cc87…
10-27 17:10:48	Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	82	2¢	$2	0x7d94d4…
10-27 16:45:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xe2273c…
10-27 16:40:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x0371b4…
10-27 16:17:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x3c579d…
10-27 16:13:11	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x1207a0…
10-27 16:13:06	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x71783f…
10-27 16:13:05	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0x7b73f8…
10-27 16:13:05	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	19¢	$4	0x119d94…
10-27 15:49:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xe07326…
10-27 15:34:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	BUY	65	92¢	$60	0x915014…
10-27 15:13:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	BUY	31	92¢	$29	0x26aa16…
10-27 15:12:32	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xa9b781…
10-27 15:06:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xcf10f2…
10-27 15:03:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x2d4e54…
10-27 15:01:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	SELL	200	27¢	$54	0x83f88e…
10-27 15:00:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xd1b06d…
10-27 14:59:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	No	SELL	990	4¢	$39	0x30f5c0…
10-27 14:55:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	No	SELL	2,000	2¢	$45	0xd618a2…
10-27 14:55:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	No	SELL	612	3¢	$19	0xb105d0…
10-27 14:54:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	No	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x89aa7a…
10-27 14:54:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x541091…
10-27 14:36:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xe842d9…
10-27 14:36:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xade932…
10-27 14:36:06	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 27?	Up	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x7ef508…