Orderly-Fortune — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

81.1%

Resolved

Trades

572

lifetime

Volume

$5.02K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 07-01 01:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

60% 100% +$0

Other

16% 100% +$0

Sports

14% 0% $-0

Politics

11% 100% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	+7	$5	75¢	$5	+$0	06-04 21:38
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	+6	$5	90¢	$5	+$0	06-28 15:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	+31	$6	0¢	$0	$-6	06-13 17:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	18	$134	97	82	+15	open	—	03-16 11:03
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	18	$126	76	76	+0	open	—	03-19 18:54
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	12	$91	74	74	+0	open	—	02-16 16:15
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	12	$90	48	48	+0	open	—	03-19 08:44
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	12	$86	44	44	+0	open	—	02-22 11:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	9	$68	52	69	-17	Yes	+$10	02-16 07:17
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	8	$61	43	43	+0	open	—	02-18 10:37
por spo nac 2026 02 01 nac	4	$44	23	23	+0	open	—	02-01 13:48
GTA VI released before June 2026?	6	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	03-05 18:29
bun dor hei 2026 02 01 hei	4	$39	21	21	+0	open	—	02-01 13:48
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$36	20	20	+0	open	—	02-18 09:58
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$34	22	22	+0	open	—	03-04 08:11
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$34	24	24	+0	open	—	06-15 03:39
will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	2	$29	30	0	+30	open	—	03-14 21:17
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$28	14	14	+0	No	$-0	03-19 06:54
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$28	14	14	+0	open	—	02-14 21:24
will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$28	15	15	+0	open	—	03-11 06:00
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	4	$26	16	16	+0	open	—	02-08 07:37
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	4	$26	14	14	+0	No	+$0	02-28 16:38
bitcoin up or down march 6 4pm et	2	$24	12	12	+0	open	—	03-06 22:01
bitcoin up or down march 8 10pm et	2	$24	12	12	+0	open	—	03-09 03:43
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	4	$24	17	17	+0	open	—	02-14 23:01
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	5	$23	39	0	+39	open	—	02-01 03:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET	2	$22	28	28	+0	open	—	05-20 01:51
lal elc bar 2026 01 31 elc	3	$22	24	0	+24	open	—	01-31 19:39
bitcoin up or down march 11 1pm et	2	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	03-11 17:56
bitcoin up or down march 5 12pm et	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-05 18:01
bitcoin up or down march 11 1am et	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	03-11 05:50
bitcoin up or down march 9 7pm et	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	03-09 23:54
bitcoin up or down march 12 10am et	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	03-12 14:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 01:09:53	mlb pit phi 2026 06 30 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	10	74¢	$8	0xf01c67…
06-29 00:13:28	mlb nyy bos 2026 06 28	Boston Red Sox	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0x0b3795…
06-28 15:25:01	Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x61dd3b…
06-24 23:36:53	mlb cle cws 2026 06 24	Chicago White Sox	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0x09f0d0…
06-24 02:00:26	mlb chc nym 2026 06 22 spread away 1pt5	Chicago Cubs	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x9bbdaa…
06-24 01:44:19	mlb lad min 2026 06 23 spread away 1pt5	Minnesota Twins	BUY	9	20¢	$2	0xdd370e…
06-24 00:25:31	mlb tex mia 2026 06 23 spread home 4pt5	Miami Marlins	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x4789d6…
06-24 00:25:28	mlb tex mia 2026 06 23 spread home 4pt5	Miami Marlins	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0xaa71a0…
06-22 23:21:23	mlb hou tor 2026 06 22 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd58cd7…
06-22 11:58:10	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0x5d9d1d…
06-21 20:11:22	mlb cin nyy 2026 06 21	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xda1eff…
06-21 19:01:07	mlb cws det 2026 06 21	Chicago White Sox	BUY	8	73¢	$6	0xcefb2c…
06-21 03:21:10	mlb bal lad 2026 06 20 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xb23a79…
06-21 00:35:37	mlb cle hou 2026 06 20 spread away 1pt5	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x82b3b3…
06-20 18:56:01	mlb tor chc 2026 06 20 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	9	62¢	$5	0xfdbe1d…
06-20 01:26:37	mlb pit col 2026 06 19 spread away 1pt5	Colorado Rockies	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xa79475…
06-20 01:26:22	mlb pit col 2026 06 19 spread away 1pt5	Colorado Rockies	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xe709e4…
06-19 13:42:56	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xfbcf04…
06-18 23:10:41	mlb cws nyy 2026 06 18	Chicago White Sox	BUY	13	35¢	$5	0x17e026…
06-17 17:10:56	mlb nym cin 2026 06 17	New York Mets	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x091e85…
06-17 01:32:59	mlb nym cin 2026 06 16	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0x15be91…
06-15 03:39:03	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x96e55d…
06-15 02:26:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	19	18¢	$3	0xc5a23f…
06-14 23:06:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	94¢	$9	0x3a1c90…
06-13 17:51:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	31	21¢	$6	0xbcee57…
06-13 17:51:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xb846d1…
06-13 17:26:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	7	36¢	$3	0x5c5623…
06-13 11:12:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	37¢	$3	0x68d14d…
06-13 08:18:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0xa946c3…
06-13 07:42:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xd7be1a…
06-11 19:46:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x72af5a…
06-11 02:26:49	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 14pt5	Knicks	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x91c08f…
06-11 01:37:39	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x2ff0c1…
06-11 01:09:15	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x4888a7…
06-11 00:47:33	mlb min det 2026 06 10	Detroit Tigers	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0x7772f2…
06-10 20:35:21	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x402233…
06-10 01:32:36	mlb sea bal 2026 06 09	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xa6f9a0…
06-10 00:34:06	mlb min det 2026 06 09 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xfdfaef…
06-09 16:18:10	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xbd67e8…
06-09 03:18:09	mlb cin sd 2026 06 08	San Diego Padres	BUY	22	42¢	$9	0xc89bb8…
06-08 03:33:54	mlb sf chc 2026 06 07 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xe1448a…
06-07 20:51:52	mlb kc min 2026 06 07	Kansas City Royals	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xca5801…
06-07 20:01:43	mlb sea det 2026 06 07	Seattle Mariners	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0x3a507a…
06-07 19:23:04	mlb cws phi 2026 06 07	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xfb4649…
06-06 02:50:43	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread home 3pt5	Knicks	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xdc0ba9…
06-06 02:21:22	wnba phx por 2026 06 05 total 160pt5	Over	BUY	1	52¢	$0	0x57e4c7…
06-06 02:21:18	wnba phx por 2026 06 05 total 160pt5	Over	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xf0af6e…
06-06 02:21:18	wnba phx por 2026 06 05 total 160pt5	Over	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0xcf19dd…
06-06 02:21:16	wnba phx por 2026 06 05 total 160pt5	Over	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x3e0366…
06-06 02:21:15	wnba phx por 2026 06 05 total 160pt5	Over	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xf85e26…
06-05 22:45:01	mlb sea det 2026 06 05 spread away 2pt5	Seattle Mariners	BUY	28	35¢	$10	0xe17c35…
06-05 00:55:51	mlb pit hou 2026 06 04	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xe2eaee…
06-04 21:38:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xd4a80d…
06-03 01:51:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$10	0x676518…
06-01 10:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0x9f267f…
05-31 21:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf3d073…
05-31 20:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x02c9ed…
05-31 19:07:58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x16dd3a…
05-30 15:02:18	Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xc662d9…
05-30 01:53:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xbc8eef…
05-29 19:48:11	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x780a28…
05-29 05:56:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x0cf0d2…
05-29 02:50:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xb7731f…
05-28 19:50:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x872927…
05-28 07:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x126ce5…
05-27 16:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	12	88¢	$10	0x291ca9…
05-27 01:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	17	99¢	$16	0x2ed787…
05-25 22:52:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$9	0xad294b…
05-22 22:51:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x0bbd18…
05-21 05:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe7c780…
05-20 07:50:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x72f758…
05-20 01:51:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	28	29¢	$8	0x4ed5df…
05-20 01:50:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	28	48¢	$14	0x8ad57a…
05-19 20:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x246606…
05-19 07:50:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x742738…
05-18 21:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x338d17…
05-18 11:50:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd9d8b0…
05-18 10:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x11b68c…
05-18 02:51:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xdd5532…
05-18 01:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x50d416…
05-17 19:53:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3d927a…
05-17 12:11:20	Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd426bf…
05-17 02:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xef244e…
05-16 11:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x1ea23b…
05-16 07:53:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	14	99¢	$13	0x8c37cb…
05-15 17:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x549509…
05-15 10:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbd07ed…
05-15 08:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x3cf30e…
05-15 06:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8c304c…
05-15 03:50:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb1bed6…
05-15 02:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x0ce730…
05-14 23:50:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb04b61…
05-14 19:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x577614…
05-14 11:51:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6dafe7…
05-14 05:50:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x49a8d5…
05-13 23:50:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x373f9b…
05-13 21:50:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x499b59…
04-26 11:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x00bad9…
04-26 04:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	6	98¢	$5	0x283116…
04-26 03:50:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xe9d370…