Joint-Screwdriver — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$439

Unrealized P&L

-$1.53K

Hit rate

56.9%

Resolved (90d)

2,576

Trades (90d)

5,976

86,073 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$16.2K

$215.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$6.15K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 11-04 23:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 269 days

Categories

Other

84% 84% -$1,962

Politics

9% 89% -$317

Sports

5% 69% -$21

Tech

2% 74% -$285

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Crypto

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 151 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	-1,299	-$968	98¢	$-1270	-$302	08-19 22:25
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	-899	-$146	88¢	$-796	-$650	08-07 01:53
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	-450	-$231	68¢	$-304	-$73	08-06 19:19
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	-300	-$48	100¢	$-299	-$251	08-29 04:09
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?	Yes	-348	-$269	82¢	$-287	-$18	09-19 08:26
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	-349	-$220	76¢	$-267	-$47	10-09 12:56
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-700	-$254	33¢	$-234	+$19	06-09 13:49
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	-220	-$63	100¢	$-220	-$156	08-15 01:53
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	-339	-$47	60¢	$-205	-$158	07-12 23:22
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	-450	-$224	46¢	$-205	+$19	08-18 03:13
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?	Yes	-220	-$35	76¢	$-167	-$132	08-27 09:43
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?	Yes	-159	-$70	99¢	$-158	-$88	07-21 10:01
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	-448	-$177	30¢	$-137	+$40	08-13 23:02
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-700	-$166	19¢	$-133	+$33	06-09 14:01
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-900	-$26	14¢	$-126	-$100	06-12 20:34
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	-450	-$184	26¢	$-115	+$69	10-09 23:51
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	-200	-$77	57¢	$-113	-$36	06-24 20:55
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	-339	-$221	32¢	$-110	+$111	07-12 23:17
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	-119	-$95	86¢	$-102	-$7	09-29 21:40
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	-100	-$62	98¢	$-98	-$35	08-02 01:44
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	-150	-$96	64¢	$-96	$0	07-28 16:07
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	-899	-$607	11¢	$-94	+$513	08-07 22:29
Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?	Yes	-100	-$86	88¢	$-87	-$1	08-10 12:51
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	-350	-$109	24¢	$-82	+$27	07-28 23:08
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	-80	-$27	100¢	$-80	-$53	05-24 22:12
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Yes	-80	-$13	98¢	$-79	-$66	07-29 07:14
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	-80	-$11	94¢	$-75	-$64	07-06 20:10
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-180	-$11	41¢	$-75	-$63	06-11 07:12
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-400	-$16	18¢	$-71	-$56	05-24 15:45
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	Yes	-100	-$62	68¢	$-68	-$6	07-29 10:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 240 259	153	$2.8K	0	8,597	-8,597	Yes	-$5,838	04-09 21:18
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 260 279	207	$2.6K	87	14,860	-14,773	No	+$2,613	04-13 17:14
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 240 259	192	$2.5K	322	11,410	-11,088	No	+$2,522	04-12 23:30
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	155	$2.2K	0	6,251	-6,251	Yes	-$4,035	04-07 03:58
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 260 279	155	$2.1K	0	8,688	-8,688	No	+$2,139	04-09 21:04
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 300 319	205	$2.0K	327	14,522	-14,196	No	+$1,970	04-14 01:52
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	191	$1.9K	411	15,986	-15,575	Yes	-$13,704	04-14 02:01
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 320 339	170	$1.7K	156	14,864	-14,708	No	+$1,746	04-14 02:21
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	97	$1.7K	0	2,449	-2,449	Yes	-$758	07-11 03:22
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 220 239	184	$1.6K	75	10,925	-10,850	No	+$1,555	04-12 20:10
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?	50	$1.5K	0	1,699	-1,699	Yes	-$165	06-19 21:54
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 280 299	135	$1.5K	0	5,835	-5,835	No	+$1,480	04-07 04:03
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	72	$1.3K	0	3,225	-3,225	No	+$1,345	05-15 10:38
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	160	$1.3K	0	8,572	-8,572	No	+$1,322	04-09 20:35
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	88	$1.1K	0	2,199	-2,199	Yes	-$1,107	06-20 13:48
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 260 279	164	$1.0K	0	5,126	-5,126	Yes	-$4,077	04-03 02:50
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 240 259	140	$987	428	6,408	-5,981	No	+$921	04-07 03:51
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	42	$968	0	1,299	-1,299	open	—	08-19 22:25
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 340 359	169	$951	245	14,633	-14,388	No	+$915	04-14 02:13
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 280 299	128	$946	67	7,652	-7,584	No	+$938	04-09 21:04
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 240 259	154	$932	20	4,188	-4,168	No	+$926	04-03 02:45
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	71	$835	0	1,999	-1,999	Yes	-$1,164	06-26 07:10
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	39	$826	0	949	-949	Yes	-$123	07-20 18:56
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 300 319	135	$807	912	6,581	-5,669	No	+$694	04-07 04:06
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?	38	$807	0	1,000	-1,000	Yes	-$193	06-19 23:11
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	10	$789	541	540	+1	open	—	09-21 00:58
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	60	$784	0	1,150	-1,150	Yes	-$365	07-17 21:04
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	25	$746	0	800	-800	Yes	-$53	08-03 16:48
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	98	$744	261	1,560	-1,299	No	+$527	07-10 05:48
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	113	$743	36	3,125	-3,089	Yes	-$2,381	03-31 01:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 23:23:24	Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2,740	0¢	$3	0x576305…
11-04 08:54:00	Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2,740	0¢	$5	0xd05b8b…
11-03 19:29:03	Will Carson Williams win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	SELL	80	0¢	$0	0x0fec88…
11-03 10:26:25	Will Tanner Bibee win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x8e9b3b…
11-03 00:50:00	Will Payton Tolle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0x97ef60…
11-03 00:00:18	Will Omoyele Sowore win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0xc4f728…
11-02 17:27:04	Will Adam Hamilton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2,620	0¢	$3	0xa9edd1…
11-02 01:44:09	Will Cole Young win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x09557a…
11-02 01:43:45	Will Dillon Dingler win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x59423b…
11-01 15:44:46	Will Chase Meidroth win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0xe3c591…
11-01 10:23:40	Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0xca72f9…
11-01 02:13:37	Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0xd113a4…
11-01 01:28:49	Will Sylvain Durif win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	820	0¢	$1	0xc3a871…
10-31 21:53:48	Will Angelo Bonelli, be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0xa47285…
10-31 17:33:22	Will Atiku Abubakar win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x61cc8b…
10-31 17:32:51	Will Sandy Onor win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xb41b71…
10-31 17:32:31	Will Seyi Makinde win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	37	0¢	$0	0x560365…
10-31 17:32:18	Will Seyi Makinde win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	63	0¢	$0	0xb36fb6…
10-31 07:31:21	Will Juan Soto win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Yes	SELL	60	0¢	$0	0x0d717d…
10-30 13:48:31	Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	32	0¢	$0	0x8eecb8…
10-29 22:22:48	Will Nicolás del Caño win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	450	0¢	$0	0x8a6d84…
10-29 21:23:18	Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0xf83c22…
10-29 19:35:31	Will Matteo Salvini be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x43228e…
10-29 19:15:31	Will Matteo Salvini be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x98a936…
10-29 19:03:55	Will Disclosure Day get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x6e270a…
10-29 08:00:04	Will Rabiu Kwankwaso win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	41	1¢	$0	0x5a9689…
10-29 05:11:22	Will James Fishback win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	1,600	0¢	$2	0x1b652a…
10-28 13:44:40	Will Hunter Greene win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?	Yes	SELL	220	0¢	$0	0xd49a16…
10-28 13:44:16	Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award?	Yes	SELL	76	0¢	$0	0xb28e28…
10-28 10:07:59	Will Viktor Orbán be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Yes	SELL	175	0¢	$1	0x9a749d…
10-28 09:44:47	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be at least 45%?	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x302ae8…
10-23 17:27:56	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x8f9dc4…
10-22 08:06:57	Will Karina Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	450	0¢	$0	0x851c96…
10-22 05:50:28	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	0¢	$0	0xaed9a9…
10-21 23:11:05	Will Lana Nusseibeh be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Yes	SELL	175	15¢	$26	0x8b7739…
10-21 15:43:36	Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader?	Yes	SELL	37	1¢	$0	0xfb9cad…
10-21 11:35:54	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	0¢	$0	0x5602cd…
10-21 07:45:39	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	0¢	$0	0xab2d81…
10-21 02:08:14	Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	324	0¢	$1	0xef1974…
10-20 22:04:42	Will A.J. Ewing win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	SELL	80	0¢	$0	0x4651e7…
10-20 21:07:06	Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	115	1¢	$2	0xaca22a…
10-20 17:15:08	Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	52	0¢	$0	0x7a4938…
10-20 16:12:18	Will Lionel Messi win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	450	0¢	$1	0x3008d2…
10-20 01:42:18	Will Natacha Polony win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	820	0¢	$1	0xeb5b32…
10-19 17:08:30	Will an independent win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xc37190…
10-19 06:41:38	Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	103	0¢	$0	0xd62e12…
10-19 06:37:23	Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	26	0¢	$0	0x6cb0e0…
10-19 06:35:26	Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	180	0¢	$0	0x9ec71d…
10-19 06:35:06	Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	114	0¢	$0	0xc106dd…
10-19 05:51:18	Will Facundo Manes win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	26	0¢	$0	0x028651…
10-18 18:59:14	Will Otzma Yehudit win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0xf35c7c…
10-18 03:25:05	Will Max Fried win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?	Yes	SELL	35	0¢	$0	0x5d9983…
10-17 16:34:50	Will Taylor Walls win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x9c7065…
10-17 12:32:50	Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xbb807a…
10-17 12:32:50	Will Adam Crum win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x5186f1…
10-17 03:33:48	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0x764ef3…
10-16 22:14:56	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xe24aca…
10-16 21:54:02	Will Guillermo Moreno win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	407	0¢	$0	0x2eeff7…
10-16 20:38:44	Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2,740	0¢	$3	0x414ed3…
10-16 20:18:02	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x6af520…
10-16 20:17:53	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xbe6c1c…
10-16 20:00:45	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x203080…
10-16 19:03:23	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xe51943…
10-16 18:54:35	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xa801f3…
10-16 18:19:23	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x0dd52d…
10-16 18:08:56	Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xfb2e46…
10-16 17:22:36	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x683eb9…
10-16 16:32:33	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x490ff0…
10-16 15:23:45	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be at least 45%?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x685f64…
10-16 15:03:45	Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be at least 45%?	Yes	SELL	60	0¢	$0	0xabc31c…
10-16 14:39:37	Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%?	Yes	SELL	52	1¢	$0	0x822735…
10-16 14:39:36	Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0xa869f5…
10-16 14:39:36	Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%?	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x3643f0…
10-16 14:39:36	Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x33a10d…
10-16 06:54:30	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x6fb539…
10-16 06:38:34	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0xb11378…
10-16 06:29:36	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x4159a6…
10-16 06:04:39	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x01a7f0…
10-16 04:43:09	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x5b3028…
10-16 00:38:03	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xd171cb…
10-15 23:58:46	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xdd3079…
10-15 23:32:13	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x497d48…
10-15 23:10:24	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xca84cd…
10-15 22:57:28	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xee6dfb…
10-15 22:29:22	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x30e481…
10-15 22:13:39	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x9fd1b9…
10-15 20:54:06	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x6c27ad…
10-15 20:41:29	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x36766d…
10-15 16:29:52	Will Logan Henderson win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	SELL	80	0¢	$0	0xe7c874…
10-15 06:50:23	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x3c16a6…
10-15 03:51:49	Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	0¢	$0	0x322e60…
10-15 03:44:32	Will Jose Ramirez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?	Yes	SELL	62	0¢	$0	0xf711c6…
10-14 19:01:51	Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award?	Yes	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0xf92d1d…
10-14 14:55:09	Will a team from CBLOL (Brazil) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	0¢	$0	0x985219…
10-14 11:13:56	Will Guillermo Moreno win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x0e4bb4…
10-14 11:12:43	Will Guillermo Moreno win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	32	0¢	$0	0xa43ed3…
10-13 17:43:22	Will Bologna win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x040c86…
10-13 11:55:55	Will Máximo Kirchner win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	SELL	450	0¢	$1	0x955ef4…
10-13 04:15:59	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0xbeccfc…
10-13 04:15:53	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	2¢	$1	0xfa402e…