Gregarious-Return — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$174

Unrealized P&L

+$293

Hit rate

56.3%

Resolved

Trades

1,290

lifetime

Volume

$317.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$246

Open exposure

$5.03K

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 03:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

57% 0% $-44

Politics

41% 50% $-130

Sports

3% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+3,900	$3,230	90¢	$3.5K	+$300	06-07 11:07
AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	+1,100	$855	75¢	$820	$-35	06-07 18:56
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	Yes	+300	$289	98¢	$294	+$5	05-30 06:03
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	+400	$180	46¢	$186	+$6	06-08 21:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+100	$51	70¢	$70	+$19	05-31 14:05
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	+67	$52	75¢	$50	$-1	06-01 16:14
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	-482	$-43	10¢	$-46	$-2	06-02 17:35
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	+21	$20	97¢	$20	$-0	05-31 06:45
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	+10	$8	90¢	$9	+$0	06-01 16:15
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	No	-92	$-1	0¢	$-0	+$1	06-01 16:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump out as president by march 31	44	$46.9K	21,751	25,751	-4,000	open	—	03-26 16:49
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	31	$27.6K	22,000	8,000	+14,000	open	—	03-30 14:17
tesla launches unsupervised full self driving fsd by march 31	4	$12.1K	17,000	0	+17,000	open	—	01-23 00:37
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	27	$7.8K	4,600	3,412	+1,188	open	—	03-02 08:41
spx up or down on march 2 2026	24	$7.3K	5,679	4,749	+930	open	—	03-02 16:54
will nvda dip to 144 in february	34	$6.2K	3,760	2,585	+1,175	open	—	02-27 16:22
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	9	$6.1K	3,600	2,850	+750	open	—	04-07 08:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$6.0K	6,000	0	+6,000	open	—	05-30 06:22
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	3	$5.9K	0	6,000	-6,000	open	—	01-24 15:50
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	8	$5.6K	2,200	3,500	-1,300	open	—	01-25 01:19
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	5	$5.3K	2,700	2,810	-110	open	—	02-01 08:53
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	10	$5.0K	4,200	3,000	+1,200	open	—	03-25 14:13
will nvda reach 200 in february	14	$5.0K	5,602	0	+5,602	open	—	02-27 14:25
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	11	$4.9K	3,300	1,667	+1,633	open	—	02-03 13:30
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	25	$4.8K	4,000	959	+3,041	open	—	05-26 13:32
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	10	$4.3K	2,350	2,350	+0	open	—	03-15 13:27
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	8	$4.3K	4,780	0	+4,780	open	—	05-11 00:26
will nvda reach 236 in january	10	$4.2K	2,500	1,796	+704	open	—	01-21 02:08
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	5	$4.1K	2,339	2,000	+339	open	—	03-31 14:26
will nvda dip to 156 in february	10	$3.8K	2,080	2,080	+0	open	—	02-27 17:35
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	26	$3.8K	2,000	1,959	+41	open	—	01-25 17:01
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	2	$3.7K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	03-26 20:12
will nvda reach 208 in february	11	$3.6K	4,005	0	+4,005	open	—	02-26 14:33
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May?	16	$3.5K	1,871	1,871	+0	open	—	05-26 08:09
will trump visit china by march 31	26	$3.5K	3,514	1,688	+1,826	open	—	03-16 00:17
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	27	$3.4K	2,054	1,540	+514	open	—	05-29 16:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$3.2K	3,900	0	+3,900	open	—	06-07 11:07
will nvda reach 220 in january	17	$3.1K	2,350	900	+1,450	open	—	01-30 06:03
will googl reach 350 in february	4	$3.0K	2,000	1,000	+1,000	open	—	02-27 18:36
will china gdp growth in q4 2025 be over 5pt0	20	$3.0K	3,195	0	+3,195	open	—	01-19 00:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 03:04:33	will nvda reach 264 in june 2026	No	BUY	53	86¢	$45	0x38342c…
06-08 21:30:13	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	136	45¢	$61	0x0687ad…
06-08 20:53:03	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x43f29e…
06-08 20:06:28	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x3e37bc…
06-08 17:37:52	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x30f482…
06-08 17:30:10	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x26314a…
06-08 17:08:36	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	70	45¢	$32	0x494d8a…
06-08 16:53:42	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xdeab5b…
06-08 16:05:09	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	159	45¢	$71	0xcb9b54…
06-07 18:56:28	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	289	78¢	$224	0x983de7…
06-07 13:50:21	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	211	78¢	$164	0x655271…
06-07 11:37:10	will andurils valuation hit high 110b by june 30	No	BUY	367	93¢	$341	0xcc3ab8…
06-07 11:37:10	will andurils valuation hit high 110b by june 30	No	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0xcb98d9…
06-07 11:07:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,500	87¢	$1,305	0x3f664c…
06-07 11:07:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,500	87¢	$1,305	0x19c20f…
06-05 19:29:55	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0xcd46bf…
06-05 19:27:15	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	505	78¢	$393	0x27ebc9…
06-05 15:17:03	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	73	78¢	$56	0xa6bf81…
06-04 10:44:15	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0xf6ac37…
06-03 06:55:37	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June?	No	BUY	438	86¢	$376	0x85890f…
06-03 04:56:38	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0x1f06b2…
06-02 17:35:50	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	364	9¢	$33	0xdf6da9…
06-02 13:45:23	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June?	No	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x4d0da1…
06-01 16:15:24	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x8351f2…
06-01 16:14:00	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	67	77¢	$52	0x6a7e49…
06-01 16:13:41	SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	92	1¢	$1	0xad7fd8…
06-01 04:52:23	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30?	No	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0x60868a…
05-31 14:05:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x0a9832…
05-31 14:05:08	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	210	74¢	$155	0xaf43f6…
05-31 14:03:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x5ddb99…
05-31 13:59:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	500	72¢	$360	0x233a43…
05-31 06:45:25	Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x99cd0e…
05-31 02:37:47	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0xa02a5f…
05-31 02:34:26	Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	60	15¢	$9	0x4bd8a7…
05-30 17:22:32	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	79	70¢	$55	0xae3fbb…
05-30 17:22:27	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x85e717…
05-30 17:22:27	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x0d1430…
05-30 06:52:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	400	65¢	$260	0x09a384…
05-30 06:22:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	6,000	100¢	$5,982	0xbb7f3e…
05-30 06:18:20	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x991261…
05-30 06:18:02	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xa3f6e6…
05-30 06:03:01	Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	300	96¢	$289	0x0ea7ac…
05-29 16:45:55	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	9¢	$2	0xc79fc9…
05-29 16:20:34	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	1,372	100¢	$1,371	0xcc966d…
05-29 09:34:54	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7fad73…
05-29 08:27:28	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x8aeebc…
05-29 08:14:01	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x146aa0…
05-29 07:47:48	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xfcecee…
05-29 07:35:12	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x62fab5…
05-29 07:19:32	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x60b801…
05-29 07:06:19	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xd4995a…
05-29 06:53:43	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x62a390…
05-29 06:40:50	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x57f6cd…
05-29 06:23:53	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xa599c8…
05-29 04:05:24	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$9	0x47ebcb…
05-29 03:45:08	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xc5e134…
05-29 03:24:04	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xa41470…
05-29 03:07:58	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5ed090…
05-29 02:48:34	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x4b677a…
05-29 02:34:08	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$9	0x04d74e…
05-29 02:33:52	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$9	0x916151…
05-29 02:33:33	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$9	0xcebdaa…
05-29 02:33:21	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$9	0x4564a8…
05-29 02:28:34	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xef01f3…
05-29 02:04:14	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xda9c98…
05-28 21:37:38	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	No	SELL	675	100¢	$672	0xe5e782…
05-28 21:37:01	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May?	No	SELL	306	100¢	$306	0xa87343…
05-28 17:17:31	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x4b10f1…
05-28 15:04:19	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	No	BUY	2,400	98¢	$2,351	0xd2937a…
05-28 13:10:39	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	23	9¢	$2	0x40f952…
05-28 12:32:00	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	17	9¢	$2	0x2e52fc…
05-28 07:04:33	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x8a3f83…
05-28 03:56:57	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	35	9¢	$3	0x083864…
05-27 14:28:08	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	No	BUY	111	93¢	$103	0xcc046c…
05-26 17:24:37	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	No	BUY	85	93¢	$79	0xfba562…
05-26 17:23:41	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	No	BUY	4	93¢	$4	0x4d29cb…
05-26 13:32:20	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	400	100¢	$398	0x6a4d75…
05-26 13:24:07	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	130	100¢	$129	0xe001ab…
05-26 12:57:45	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x00f1c5…
05-26 08:09:59	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May?	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0x4ad211…
05-26 07:36:44	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May?	No	SELL	559	100¢	$558	0x786fc3…
05-26 06:07:06	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x147f4e…
05-26 05:52:02	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xea5f14…
05-26 05:22:27	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xdc7fab…
05-26 04:17:44	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0x3630a1…
05-26 03:58:31	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x50ce97…
05-26 02:54:21	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x413a10…
05-26 02:32:18	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x817cb0…
05-26 01:58:12	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x93e0a6…
05-26 00:15:23	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x5d4c81…
05-25 23:21:19	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x8f026e…
05-25 23:07:41	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x28c2c8…
05-25 22:46:03	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xdaaa5d…
05-25 22:29:50	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x204602…
05-25 21:51:08	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x93b599…
05-25 21:16:30	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xb4df8d…
05-25 19:57:49	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x8a7a8a…
05-25 19:55:27	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xd0777b…
05-25 19:51:08	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$21	0x827656…
05-25 19:40:19	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x9dabe9…