Radiant-Divide — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$717

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.3%

Resolved

Trades

25,224

lifetime

Volume

$1.37M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$54

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-25 23:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Politics

55% 53% +$294

Other

36% 52% +$15

Sports

8% 71% +$407

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 552 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	419	$37.0K	27,315	27,122	+193	open	—	01-15 01:23
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	221	$25.1K	21,371	21,237	+134	open	—	03-01 01:59
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	259	$20.1K	15,345	14,716	+629	open	—	01-31 13:30
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	144	$18.4K	12,463	9,113	+3,350	open	—	02-01 05:29
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	213	$17.6K	13,602	13,642	-41	open	—	03-01 01:59
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	236	$16.6K	13,382	13,017	+364	open	—	01-29 16:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	201	$16.1K	18,652	15,904	+2,748	open	—	05-30 11:35
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	203	$15.4K	18,454	18,176	+278	open	—	02-28 07:08
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	33	$13.3K	8,207	8,407	-200	open	—	04-10 13:36
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	134	$10.4K	9,222	7,376	+1,846	open	—	03-31 02:45
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	169	$10.2K	8,316	7,640	+676	open	—	02-08 19:44
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	52	$9.8K	8,681	3,915	+4,765	open	—	02-28 06:16
will michael olise score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	37	$9.1K	11,333	7,025	+4,307	open	—	07-16 17:43
us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946	79	$9.1K	5,083	5,706	-623	open	—	01-12 01:07
internet access restored in iran by friday 972	59	$9.1K	5,216	4,565	+652	open	—	01-22 04:27
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	123	$8.7K	6,215	5,986	+229	open	—	01-15 11:28
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	107	$8.6K	12,440	5,434	+7,006	open	—	07-25 16:28
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	431	$8.3K	122,912	98,578	+24,334	open	—	02-09 05:48
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	177	$8.0K	6,789	6,715	+75	open	—	01-15 13:34
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	59	$7.9K	4,298	4,405	-107	open	—	01-22 02:06
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	118	$7.9K	6,761	5,958	+804	open	—	04-01 00:27
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	32	$7.5K	3,700	3,850	-150	open	—	01-08 02:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	95	$7.3K	6,903	6,103	+800	open	—	05-13 09:03
will axiom be accused of insider trading	139	$7.3K	7,721	4,372	+3,349	open	—	02-26 08:17
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	92	$7.1K	8,212	4,904	+3,309	open	—	02-03 00:40
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	105	$7.0K	8,646	4,599	+4,048	open	—	07-25 02:06
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101	59	$6.8K	3,884	3,684	+200	open	—	01-24 13:33
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	119	$6.7K	9,247	4,970	+4,277	open	—	07-07 19:31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	56	$6.4K	5,600	5,601	-1	open	—	07-25 12:58
Iran leadership change by May 31?	65	$6.2K	4,730	4,345	+385	open	—	05-29 05:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 23:28:18	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	200	32¢	$64	0x9c53c9…
07-25 21:25:31	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	SELL	22	68¢	$15	0x871db4…
07-25 18:47:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	SELL	600	4¢	$24	0x402030…
07-25 18:44:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	600	4¢	$24	0x4fc7fa…
07-25 17:25:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	600	79¢	$476	0x50dfe1…
07-25 16:51:52	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	186	68¢	$126	0x068a91…
07-25 16:28:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x9d7b11…
07-25 16:26:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	312	69¢	$215	0x0c6370…
07-25 16:19:09	ufc ram10 ste14 2026 07 25	Steve Erceg	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0xeaf2f3…
07-25 16:12:58	ufc mag1 bog1 2026 07 25	Magomed Ankalaev	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0xc647d2…
07-25 15:08:04	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	10¢	$4	0x356afd…
07-25 15:01:34	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	253	76¢	$192	0x7852e2…
07-25 14:56:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	400	71¢	$284	0x52f6de…
07-25 14:43:25	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	92	67¢	$62	0x049273…
07-25 14:43:06	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	308	67¢	$206	0x6bb645…
07-25 13:50:55	will wti dip to 80 in july 2026	No	SELL	27	70¢	$19	0xb23985…
07-25 13:50:54	will wti dip to 80 in july 2026	No	SELL	231	70¢	$162	0x550f4d…
07-25 13:49:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0xbc2cc6…
07-25 13:45:00	will wti dip to 80 in july 2026	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x46a187…
07-25 13:43:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	101	28¢	$28	0xbbc5c0…
07-25 13:35:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0x960bea…
07-25 13:32:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	2	28¢	$1	0x964595…
07-25 13:19:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	63	29¢	$18	0x52b000…
07-25 13:18:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	56	29¢	$16	0x831fdb…
07-25 13:16:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	32	69¢	$22	0x845549…
07-25 13:09:31	Will FaZe win a Tier 1 event in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,054	15¢	$161	0x14471b…
07-25 13:08:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	56	69¢	$39	0x71025a…
07-25 13:08:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	486	82¢	$397	0x23b46f…
07-25 13:07:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	81	29¢	$24	0x915e15…
07-25 13:06:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	400	70¢	$280	0xe8f4bb…
07-25 12:58:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,000	28¢	$280	0x21550e…
07-25 12:54:28	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0xa52926…
07-25 12:43:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	12	96¢	$11	0xd337ea…
07-25 12:41:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	Yes	BUY	115	90¢	$104	0x7ab806…
07-25 12:41:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	SELL	600	6¢	$36	0xf1be97…
07-25 12:30:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	109	78¢	$85	0xf1427e…
07-25 12:28:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	303	29¢	$88	0xab2a76…
07-25 12:27:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	Yes	BUY	35	90¢	$32	0xe6921d…
07-25 12:22:36	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	89	23¢	$20	0xc4d485…
07-25 12:20:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	27¢	$270	0x976bf4…
07-25 12:18:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	200	30¢	$60	0xb1d77c…
07-25 11:55:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x4a09bd…
07-25 11:17:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x9414b6…
07-25 11:00:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0xda48b9…
07-25 10:41:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	100	68¢	$68	0xbe69a4…
07-25 10:33:45	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	10¢	$3	0x07a574…
07-25 10:13:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x6fef8b…
07-25 09:53:46	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	18	76¢	$14	0x833bf3…
07-25 09:36:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0xa50f4d…
07-25 03:19:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0xf810fd…
07-25 02:06:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	197	61¢	$120	0x80cdac…
07-25 02:06:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x9350e7…
07-25 00:32:30	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	100	68¢	$68	0x4255e7…
07-24 23:16:55	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	114	68¢	$78	0x9e16ad…
07-24 23:14:45	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	172	8¢	$14	0x761098…
07-24 22:38:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x993d8c…
07-24 21:31:42	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0x97ea83…
07-24 21:31:31	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	18	76¢	$13	0x8ee4f5…
07-24 21:31:09	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x56fa95…
07-24 20:50:25	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0x8aa1dc…
07-24 20:49:42	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	6	8¢	$1	0x3ed07d…
07-24 20:21:51	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	21	8¢	$2	0x6eae31…
07-24 20:19:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0xa37fb7…
07-24 20:11:24	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	BUY	79	86¢	$68	0xce6857…
07-24 20:09:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	SELL	160	21¢	$34	0x0b1831…
07-24 19:59:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	590	35¢	$207	0x354feb…
07-24 19:58:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	14	35¢	$5	0xbe907e…
07-24 19:56:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0x89f138…
07-24 19:56:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0x2d85e1…
07-24 19:51:28	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0xa61baa…
07-24 19:20:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	465	78¢	$362	0xe4538d…
07-24 19:18:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0x14d8f4…
07-24 19:16:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	31	78¢	$24	0xa15bdb…
07-24 19:11:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	408	39¢	$159	0xacfe15…
07-24 19:11:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	448	61¢	$273	0x02d927…
07-24 19:11:00	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	10¢	$1	0xfbc543…
07-24 19:10:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0xab2dbf…
07-24 19:07:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	150	78¢	$117	0x3dae8d…
07-24 19:06:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0x3aa8e7…
07-24 19:06:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	27	78¢	$21	0x65bd59…
07-24 19:05:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0x1ff98d…
07-24 19:04:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0xaccaee…
07-24 18:59:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	400	80¢	$320	0x45a1bd…
07-24 18:43:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	18	61¢	$11	0x5feb65…
07-24 18:42:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xf9b6d6…
07-24 18:39:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	147	61¢	$90	0xdb0925…
07-24 18:35:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	32	61¢	$20	0x25cb7e…
07-24 17:18:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x339363…
07-24 17:10:43	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	201	48¢	$96	0xd6c005…
07-24 16:58:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	SELL	600	21¢	$126	0x18f7cb…
07-24 16:58:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0x9079b7…
07-24 16:54:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	370	17¢	$63	0xd16a74…
07-24 16:27:01	israel closes its airspace by july 24	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0x500b0a…
07-24 15:13:07	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	83	34¢	$28	0x411c04…
07-24 15:12:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	123	34¢	$42	0x914e02…
07-24 15:08:06	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	300	65¢	$195	0xc743f0…
07-24 14:27:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	200	19¢	$38	0xb7918e…
07-24 14:26:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	No	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x96ad69…
07-24 14:22:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x212d34…
07-24 14:20:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	123	27¢	$33	0xd8767b…