Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$76

Unrealized P&L

-$30

Hit rate

68.3%

Resolved

Trades

700

lifetime

Volume

$7.81K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-08-20

last 10-28 15:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Crypto

36% 56% +$17

Politics

35% 55% +$61

Other

28% 20% -$167

Tech

0% 100% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 260 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No		+190	$19	1¢	$2	-$17	10-24 22:14
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No		+48	$15	4¢	$2	-$13	09-06 23:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	12	$882	2,477	2,477	+0	open	—	09-27 22:22
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	10	$639	653	653	+0	open	—	10-28 15:13
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	7	$398	477	477	+0	open	—	10-28 01:36
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	7	$271	652	652	+0	No	-$65	09-06 18:22
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?	5	$260	160	160	+0	Over	+$60	09-06 22:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 22:50 UTC	28	$235	202	156	+46	Up	+$85	08-21 22:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 22:40 UTC	41	$190	157	110	+46	Up	+$60	08-21 22:44
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	7	$174	1,329	1,329	+0	open	—	09-18 08:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:15 UTC	19	$164	157	157	+0	Up	+$40	09-29 03:19
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	4	$151	209	209	+0	open	—	10-28 00:49
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	4	$149	210	210	+0	open	—	10-01 18:05
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	4	$140	1,008	1,008	+0	Yes	-$60	09-21 16:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 15:30 UTC	10	$137	227	127	+100	Down	+$33	09-28 15:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	8	$137	113	113	+0	Down	+$47	09-29 03:14
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	5	$136	130	130	+0	open	—	10-11 19:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 23:10 UTC	15	$132	150	112	+39	Up	+$31	08-21 23:14
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	4	$130	203	203	+0	open	—	10-28 02:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 23:20 UTC	22	$116	93	93	+0	Up	+$38	08-21 23:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	19	$116	190	90	+100	Up	+$6	09-08 00:19
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	3	$109	79	79	+0	open	—	10-27 14:40
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?	2	$106	107	107	+0	Yes	+$76	09-02 00:12
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	4	$103	79	79	+0	Yes	+$30	09-20 18:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:25 UTC	6	$102	63	63	+0	Up	+$22	09-29 03:28
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	4	$100	151	151	+0	No	+$0	09-07 23:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	29	$99	192	145	+47	Down	+$9	09-08 00:14
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	3	$97	294	294	+0	open	—	08-21 22:30
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	3	$95	58	58	+0	open	—	10-24 21:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 22:55 UTC	19	$91	206	0	+206	Down	-$91	08-21 22:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	5	$86	55	55	+0	Down	+$24	09-29 03:10
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	4	$84	745	745	+0	open	—	10-06 01:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 15:13:52	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	81	53¢	$43	0xa6064e…
10-28 03:50:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	81	54¢	$44	0x6db1a0…
10-28 03:48:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	162	56¢	$91	0xa08fa2…
10-28 03:47:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	213	43¢	$92	0x6ea5c0…
10-28 02:26:45	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	7¢	$2	0x013a1b…
10-28 02:26:41	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	138	2¢	$2	0x7302c5…
10-28 01:52:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	213	54¢	$115	0xa867d5…
10-28 01:36:21	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	335	35¢	$116	0x23cc30…
10-28 01:15:45	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	77	39¢	$30	0x49b86d…
10-28 01:14:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	258	39¢	$100	0x625a7d…
10-28 01:13:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	277	47¢	$130	0x3ad773…
10-28 00:50:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	74	47¢	$35	0xb81f44…
10-28 00:49:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	102	34¢	$34	0x656cd7…
10-28 00:47:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	53	49¢	$26	0xfe8622…
10-28 00:46:47	Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	13	78¢	$10	0xcf4937…
10-28 00:46:39	Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	No	SELL	44	35¢	$16	0xc8322f…
10-27 23:17:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	102	34¢	$35	0x34ab9b…
10-27 23:15:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	107	33¢	$35	0x8a1b81…
10-27 23:10:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x17caa6…
10-27 23:06:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	143	42¢	$60	0x01b339…
10-27 23:02:18	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	142	43¢	$62	0x705a48…
10-27 14:42:23	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	39	65¢	$25	0xcc6b2b…
10-27 14:41:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	SELL	49	54¢	$27	0xae7ce4…
10-27 14:41:14	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	85	65¢	$55	0x052687…
10-27 14:40:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	79	70¢	$56	0x675045…
10-26 11:34:38	Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0xff7253…
10-26 11:31:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	85	14¢	$12	0x37992e…
10-24 22:14:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	BUY	190	10¢	$19	0xbc5743…
10-24 21:35:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	BUY	49	61¢	$30	0xb68751…
10-24 21:35:00	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	SELL	58	84¢	$49	0xc0c8bd…
10-24 21:33:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	107	44¢	$47	0x3028c9…
10-24 21:33:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	93¢	$37	0xc9b061…
10-11 20:01:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x6f09e7…
10-11 19:59:19	Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	SELL	52	81¢	$42	0x30848b…
10-06 11:02:40	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xb158a4…
10-06 01:42:41	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	745	1¢	$11	0xf4383b…
10-01 18:06:12	Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	Yes	BUY	46	79¢	$36	0xe780bb…
10-01 18:05:51	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	22¢	$37	0xe4a54e…
09-29 11:38:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 11:35 UTC	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x59e880…
09-29 11:38:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 11:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xf7ece3…
09-29 10:57:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 10:55 UTC	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x85ab88…
09-29 03:59:24	us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 20260918	No	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x401a36…
09-29 03:59:08	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x814a5a…
09-29 03:52:50	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0x4ae1c1…
09-29 03:52:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:50 UTC	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x8ab87c…
09-29 03:51:02	Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	No	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x3af9f7…
09-29 03:50:44	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	333	3¢	$10	0xa63fc3…
09-29 03:50:24	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	Yes	SELL	376	0¢	$0	0xbee91f…
09-29 03:48:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xe52105…
09-29 03:48:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x23d068…
09-29 03:48:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xd93e6f…
09-29 03:48:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xb2348b…
09-29 03:48:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x92db2e…
09-29 03:47:33	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x3ce486…
09-29 03:47:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xe8bba1…
09-29 03:46:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x68f453…
09-29 03:46:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x2e0996…
09-29 03:46:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x598dbc…
09-29 03:45:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x968166…
09-29 03:45:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xa30910…
09-29 03:45:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xfd34ca…
09-29 03:45:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xf1941f…
09-29 03:45:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x94884d…
09-29 03:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	76	62¢	$47	0xd5da17…
09-29 03:42:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xbe6623…
09-29 03:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xbbba9b…
09-29 03:42:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x64bb7b…
09-29 03:42:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x985954…
09-29 03:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xfa82c1…
09-29 03:42:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x43ace9…
09-29 03:41:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x3eebb5…
09-29 03:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x555b44…
09-29 03:40:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	SELL	20	99¢	$19	0x6cc52a…
09-29 03:38:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xcde9cd…
09-29 03:38:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x120e0d…
09-29 03:35:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:35 UTC	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xa1318c…
09-29 03:34:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:30 UTC	Down	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x32de74…
09-29 03:29:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xf243df…
09-29 03:29:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:30 UTC	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xb5c3b2…
09-29 03:28:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:25 UTC	Up	SELL	63	99¢	$62	0xe94abb…
09-29 03:27:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x87f1e3…
09-29 03:27:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x89c024…
09-29 03:25:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:25 UTC	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x3edea1…
09-29 03:25:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:25 UTC	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x234a51…
09-29 03:25:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:25 UTC	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x1ac70f…
09-29 03:20:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:20 UTC	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x5293ba…
09-29 03:20:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:20 UTC	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x7aa25c…
09-29 03:20:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:20 UTC	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x5c767d…
09-29 03:20:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:20 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x623933…
09-29 03:20:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x67efe8…
09-29 03:19:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:20 UTC	Down	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xa66601…
09-29 03:19:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:20 UTC	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x9ffa5d…
09-29 03:19:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:20 UTC	Down	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0x676b77…
09-29 03:19:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:15 UTC	Up	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x6fbfc4…
09-29 03:18:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xd267bb…
09-29 03:18:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x124962…
09-29 03:18:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:15 UTC	Down	SELL	36	40¢	$15	0x614296…
09-29 03:18:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x48c8e1…
09-29 03:18:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xc47dab…
09-29 03:18:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xc719ce…