Shrill-Memo — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$31

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

276

lifetime

Volume

$45.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$165

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-01

last 07-30 01:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

56% 0% $-16

Other

39% 0% $-15

Tech

4% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	28	$4.4K	5,488	5,488	+0	open	—	04-21 06:50
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	18	$2.9K	2,130	2,129	+1	open	—	04-20 18:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	13	$2.0K	2,045	2,045	+0	open	—	04-16 18:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	9	$1.8K	1,370	1,370	+0	open	—	05-03 15:21
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	12	$1.7K	2,115	2,115	+0	open	—	04-06 16:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	11	$1.7K	1,652	1,651	+1	open	—	04-25 11:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	9	$1.7K	1,455	1,455	+0	open	—	07-23 22:00
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	6	$1.5K	1,487	1,487	+0	open	—	04-16 10:42
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	9	$1.3K	1,459	1,458	+1	open	—	07-30 00:47
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	8	$1.1K	734	733	+1	open	—	06-07 14:43
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	4	$1.0K	702	702	+0	open	—	04-10 00:56
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	4	$1.0K	953	953	+0	open	—	06-09 20:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	6	$1.0K	894	894	+0	open	—	04-21 05:32
Iran leadership change by December 31?	4	$1.0K	681	681	+0	open	—	07-30 01:22
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	5	$982	714	713	+1	open	—	07-08 03:15
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$952	557	557	+0	open	—	04-12 13:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$944	707	707	+0	Yes	$-16	05-08 18:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	4	$871	714	714	+0	open	—	06-04 04:09
Fed rate hike in 2026?	9	$861	911	910	+1	open	—	07-12 02:54
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	4	$812	1,003	1,003	+0	open	—	04-10 19:38
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	4	$621	1,082	1,082	+0	open	—	04-02 01:23
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	4	$599	937	937	+0	open	—	04-01 18:31
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	5	$580	646	645	+1	open	—	04-02 19:38
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	4	$520	342	341	+1	open	—	04-14 23:41
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	3	$518	341	341	+0	open	—	06-25 12:37
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$517	313	313	+0	open	—	04-12 01:58
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	2	$516	313	313	+0	open	—	04-14 22:25
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	2	$516	400	400	+0	open	—	06-10 09:07
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$516	346	346	+0	open	—	04-10 21:04
will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	2	$514	329	329	+0	open	—	06-05 14:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-30 01:22:17	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	320	77¢	$246	0x3fc067…
07-30 01:21:02	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	320	78¢	$250	0xfa2e4a…
07-30 00:47:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	294	73¢	$215	0x7e13e8…
07-30 00:46:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	294	74¢	$218	0xf63d45…
07-23 22:00:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	436	47¢	$205	0x7353b5…
07-23 21:59:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	436	47¢	$205	0x17a062…
07-23 21:46:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	421	48¢	$202	0x001f39…
07-23 21:44:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	421	49¢	$206	0x436ac3…
07-22 14:31:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	908	28¢	$254	0xa959e7…
07-22 14:30:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	600	28¢	$168	0xe70b18…
07-22 14:30:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	236	28¢	$66	0x1f54ed…
07-22 14:30:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	72	28¢	$20	0xe25710…
07-17 16:04:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	252	76¢	$190	0x8911d7…
07-17 16:02:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x1905b8…
07-17 16:02:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	257	76¢	$195	0x743748…
07-12 02:54:44	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	130	37¢	$48	0xa7c071…
07-12 02:53:44	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	32	39¢	$13	0x6bdb90…
07-12 02:53:41	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0xa1e22c…
07-12 02:53:41	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	51	39¢	$20	0x258a9b…
07-12 02:53:40	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	53	39¢	$21	0x06cbde…
07-12 02:53:37	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	53	39¢	$21	0x4593a9…
07-12 02:52:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	421	44¢	$185	0xea92d8…
07-10 03:21:02	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	SELL	347	71¢	$247	0xbe5341…
07-10 03:19:37	iran leadership change by june 30 2027	No	BUY	347	72¢	$250	0xf15f35…
07-08 13:28:07	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	86	50¢	$43	0x21b3eb…
07-08 13:26:52	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	216	56¢	$121	0x9db7be…
07-08 13:25:43	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	302	57¢	$172	0x64d7ad…
07-08 03:15:16	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x125f40…
07-08 03:14:53	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	351	65¢	$230	0x1de0da…
07-08 03:13:11	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	362	69¢	$250	0x281572…
07-07 19:27:28	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	352	70¢	$246	0xbb893c…
07-07 19:26:11	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	352	71¢	$250	0xb2fc2c…
07-01 16:11:02	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	109	21¢	$23	0x769976…
07-01 16:10:35	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	110	21¢	$23	0x5a01fe…
06-25 12:37:32	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	341	76¢	$258	0x989a76…
06-25 12:37:11	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	340	76¢	$259	0x8d78d1…
06-25 12:37:05	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x18919e…
06-12 16:26:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	481	50¢	$241	0x9ace80…
06-12 16:25:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	481	54¢	$260	0x52e979…
06-10 22:50:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	293	71¢	$208	0xb730b6…
06-10 22:50:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	71¢	$5	0xa3860c…
06-10 22:49:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	301	73¢	$220	0xb1134d…
06-10 12:31:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	490	52¢	$255	0x0818de…
06-10 12:31:07	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	490	53¢	$260	0xba3802…
06-10 09:07:25	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	400	64¢	$256	0x8ed3ad…
06-10 09:06:42	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	65¢	$260	0x659dcc…
06-09 20:10:24	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	SELL	472	54¢	$255	0xc18103…
06-09 20:09:55	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	472	55¢	$260	0xbb2351…
06-08 11:14:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	SELL	1,047	14¢	$147	0x31c747…
06-08 11:12:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	BUY	1,047	21¢	$220	0xbc5789…
06-08 11:12:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	SELL	481	53¢	$255	0xb231d0…
06-08 11:12:00	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	481	54¢	$260	0xd2cf3c…
06-07 14:43:15	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	276	79¢	$218	0x6c6db0…
06-07 14:42:28	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	276	80¢	$220	0x452488…
06-05 14:00:01	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	No	SELL	329	77¢	$254	0xd78e13…
06-05 13:59:36	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	No	BUY	329	79¢	$260	0x2a3ae8…
06-05 06:14:52	wti up or down on june 5 2026	Up	SELL	509	49¢	$249	0xa8687c…
06-05 06:14:10	wti up or down on june 5 2026	Up	BUY	509	51¢	$260	0x64e981…
06-05 01:44:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	SELL	280	69¢	$193	0xc2125e…
06-05 01:44:27	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	280	70¢	$196	0x7cef59…
06-04 18:19:37	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	366	70¢	$256	0xb3a8e7…
06-04 04:09:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	360	60¢	$216	0xb06432…
06-04 04:08:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	360	61¢	$220	0xeda92d…
06-03 23:01:01	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	354	61¢	$216	0x641222…
06-03 23:00:30	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	354	62¢	$219	0xa6b43e…
06-03 22:13:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	297	73¢	$217	0x07da13…
06-03 22:12:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	297	74¢	$220	0x13de39…
06-03 20:18:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	289	75¢	$217	0x929dba…
06-03 20:17:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	289	76¢	$220	0x421500…
06-03 19:52:36	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	338	76¢	$257	0x782b73…
06-03 19:52:13	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	338	77¢	$259	0x5848d8…
06-03 18:12:22	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	119	77¢	$92	0x39a81d…
06-03 18:11:42	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xae15bd…
06-03 18:11:42	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	45	77¢	$35	0x7420a5…
06-03 18:11:37	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	62	77¢	$48	0xb569d9…
06-03 10:13:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	278	78¢	$217	0xd15670…
06-03 10:12:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	278	79¢	$220	0x97260a…
06-02 23:09:37	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	361	71¢	$256	0x319553…
06-02 23:09:07	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	361	72¢	$260	0xadfbb8…
05-20 14:20:51	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x8aa366…
05-20 14:20:18	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	No	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0x9171e8…
05-20 14:20:04	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	No	SELL	293	74¢	$217	0xc6c0f7…
05-20 14:19:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	No	BUY	293	75¢	$220	0x45f74c…
05-15 08:34:11	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	354	61¢	$216	0x437d6f…
05-15 08:33:43	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	354	62¢	$219	0x771500…
05-08 18:02:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	388	66¢	$256	0xcfcafd…
05-08 18:01:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	388	67¢	$260	0x7ab262…
05-06 05:16:32	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	SELL	356	70¢	$249	0xa98889…
05-06 05:15:56	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	356	73¢	$260	0x5521e5…
05-05 05:43:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	319	65¢	$208	0xe39825…
05-05 05:43:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	319	69¢	$220	0xcab95a…
05-05 02:58:32	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?	Yes	SELL	458	47¢	$215	0xd47f7a…
05-05 02:57:58	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?	Yes	BUY	458	48¢	$220	0x97eef7…
05-03 15:21:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	282	77¢	$217	0x2ece6d…
05-03 15:20:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	282	78¢	$220	0x544cdd…
05-02 12:26:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	534	37¢	$196	0x52d530…
05-02 12:26:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	37¢	$22	0xe2e6fa…
05-02 12:25:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	594	37¢	$220	0xc1def9…
05-01 07:16:20	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1?	Up	SELL	431	49¢	$211	0x6109b7…
05-01 07:15:32	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1?	Up	BUY	431	51¢	$220	0xe9a5da…