Cooked-Pillbox — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$26

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$5.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$126

Open exposure

$103

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 11-05 04:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Other

73% 96% +$18

Crypto

18% 100% +$2

Politics

7% 100% +$2

Sports

2% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No		+74	$70	95¢	$70	+$0	11-05 04:42
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No		+34	$32	97¢	$33	+$1	11-05 04:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	2	$451	227	227	+0	No	+$1	06-18 02:26
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	2	$364	188	188	+0	No	+$4	07-19 00:28
will zai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$340	341	0	+341	No	+$1	02-08 10:17
trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	1	$280	281	0	+281	No	+$1	07-26 12:39
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	2	$261	131	131	+0	No	+$1	06-07 18:54
will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	1	$239	240	0	+240	No	+$1	03-09 06:08
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	1	$220	220	0	+220	No	+$0	06-02 14:46
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	1	$210	214	0	+214	No	+$4	05-29 07:37
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$200	202	0	+202	No	+$2	07-01 08:07
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$180	181	0	+181	No	+$1	05-18 05:10
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	1	$172	173	0	+173	No	+$1	03-09 06:09
will solana reach 200 january 5 11	1	$163	163	0	+163	No	+$0	01-09 06:03
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$162	162	0	+162	No	+$0	04-14 07:52
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$150	150	0	+150	No	+$0	01-09 06:06
will alibaba have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$150	150	0	+150	No	+$0	01-09 06:05
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$140	140	0	+140	No	+$0	05-13 08:07
will ethereum dip to 1000 in january 2026 651	1	$135	135	0	+135	No	+$0	01-28 06:05
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 14?	1	$133	133	0	+133	Yes	+$0	05-13 08:05
Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates in May?	1	$120	120	0	+120	No	+$0	05-13 07:58
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$102	102	0	+102	No	+$0	08-23 07:29
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	1	$101	102	0	+102	No	+$1	09-05 09:17
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$96	49	49	+0	No	+$0	05-18 05:09
world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	1	$90	94	0	+94	No	+$4	07-01 08:06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	1	$90	91	0	+91	No	+$1	04-14 07:56
Will the People's Bank of China increase rates in April?	1	$87	87	0	+87	No	+$0	04-25 05:51
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 40 59	1	$85	85	0	+85	No	+$0	02-08 10:18
deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	1	$84	85	0	+85	No	+$1	04-14 07:52
Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	1	$70	74	0	+74	open	—	11-05 04:42
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	1	$67	67	0	+67	No	+$0	10-07 10:55
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	1	$50	51	0	+51	No	+$1	04-14 07:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 04:43:36	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	95¢	$32	0x92044b…
11-05 04:42:54	Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	74	95¢	$70	0x259d14…
10-07 10:56:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0x7c2674…
10-07 10:55:50	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	67	100¢	$67	0x3dcd8b…
09-05 09:17:28	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x7ee50c…
08-23 07:29:13	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xee31d8…
07-26 12:39:15	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	281	100¢	$280	0x165337…
07-19 00:28:15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	188	98¢	$184	0xea2eaf…
07-01 08:07:17	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x0cef66…
07-01 08:06:01	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	No	BUY	94	96¢	$90	0x3b628e…
07-01 08:05:14	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	188	96¢	$180	0xe72885…
06-18 02:26:16	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	No	SELL	227	100¢	$226	0x47821b…
06-17 10:23:32	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	No	BUY	227	99¢	$225	0x3d12e2…
06-07 18:54:10	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	No	SELL	131	100¢	$131	0x1364ef…
06-07 17:55:06	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	No	BUY	131	99¢	$130	0x658dfe…
06-02 14:46:54	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	No	BUY	220	100¢	$220	0xac9739…
05-29 07:37:09	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	214	98¢	$210	0x8f4f45…
05-18 05:10:34	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	181	100¢	$180	0xdac483…
05-18 05:09:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	49	99¢	$48	0xd031fe…
05-13 08:07:02	Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x2fd6ed…
05-13 08:05:17	Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	133	100¢	$133	0xe7093d…
05-13 08:03:02	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	49	99¢	$48	0x3e5be9…
05-13 07:58:10	Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates in May?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x1f92bd…
04-25 05:51:56	Will the People's Bank of China increase rates in April?	No	BUY	87	100¢	$87	0xeadd20…
04-17 10:15:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0xa8a9dd…
04-14 07:56:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0x66176e…
04-14 07:56:01	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x8a9319…
04-14 07:52:43	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	No	BUY	85	99¢	$84	0x94adcc…
04-14 07:52:05	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	162	100¢	$162	0x2e2c27…
03-17 09:59:57	will elon musk be richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xa8f1b6…
03-09 06:09:13	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	173	99¢	$172	0x7572ac…
03-09 06:08:41	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	240	100¢	$239	0x4e88aa…
03-09 06:07:59	bitcoin above 60k on march 9	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x64af74…
02-27 07:58:31	elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 280 299	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xb06771…
02-08 10:18:19	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 40 59	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0x362a44…
02-08 10:17:05	will zai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	341	100¢	$340	0x9a8a1e…
01-28 06:05:49	will ethereum dip to 1000 in january 2026 651	No	BUY	135	100¢	$135	0xb6ccb9…
01-09 06:06:14	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x061585…
01-09 06:05:44	will alibaba have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x2e6e0b…
01-09 06:04:48	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xcec1a9…
01-09 06:03:54	will solana reach 200 january 5 11	No	BUY	163	100¢	$163	0xcfe5b1…