Yearly-Cigarette — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$204

Unrealized P&L

+$39

Hit rate

95.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.55K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$60

Open exposure

$452

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 10-18 04:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Other

58% 74% +$121

Politics

25% 100% +$33

Sports

10% 67% +$49

Crypto

7% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	+205	$198	97¢	$199	+$0	10-18 04:09
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	+111	$110	100¢	$111	+$0	10-18 04:09
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	+50	$42	100¢	$50	+$8	09-21 10:39
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	+50	$46	98¢	$49	+$3	09-13 08:55
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	+30	$28	97¢	$29	+$1	08-09 12:31
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	-275	-$41	6¢	$-15	+$26	05-02 08:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump out as president by march 31	3	$338	173	173	+0	No	+$1	03-06 07:21
will uzbekistan reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120777	2	$277	280	0	+280	No	+$3	06-24 03:10
Will the lowest temperature in Jeddah be 25°C or below on August 28?	1	$239	239	0	+239	No	+$0	08-28 03:09
will silver si hit low 25 by end of march	2	$221	111	111	+0	No	+$0	03-26 02:14
ethereum all time high by march 31 2026	2	$220	110	110	+0	No	+$0	03-26 03:20
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$201	102	102	+0	No	+$1	03-05 03:16
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	2	$198	205	0	+205	open	—	10-18 04:09
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 23?	1	$158	161	0	+161	Yes	+$3	07-23 03:02
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 23?	1	$140	141	0	+141	No	+$1	07-23 03:00
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	1	$121	121	0	+121	No	+$0	05-16 07:53
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?	1	$110	117	0	+117	Yes	+$7	03-26 03:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	1	$110	111	0	+111	open	—	10-18 04:09
trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	1	$109	110	0	+110	No	+$1	08-09 12:30
will crude oil cl hit low 60 by end of march 293 652 791 525 614 229 628 379 727 681 774	2	$102	51	51	+0	No	+$0	03-25 13:57
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$100	106	0	+106	No	+$6	05-06 06:59
will trump meet with emmanuel macron in january 2026	1	$100	116	0	+116	No	+$16	01-22 12:41
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$1	05-16 07:52
will tsla reach 645 in january	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	01-22 12:37
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	08-09 12:26
will saudi arabia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120765	2	$98	101	0	+101	No	+$3	06-24 03:16
Will the lowest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C on August 28?	1	$97	98	0	+98	No	+$1	08-28 03:08
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	1	$96	100	0	+100	No	+$4	09-21 10:39
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in September?	1	$60	60	0	+60	No	+$0	09-21 10:50
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 23?	1	$59	59	0	+59	No	+$0	07-23 02:55
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?	1	$57	58	0	+58	No	+$1	09-22 05:24
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	1	$57	57	0	+57	No	+$0	08-09 12:25
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?	1	$56	60	0	+60	open	—	09-22 04:54
will trump meet with xi jinping in january 2026	1	$51	52	0	+52	No	+$0	01-22 12:41
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026?	1	$51	52	0	+52	No	+$1	03-25 13:58
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	2	$46	50	0	+50	open	—	09-13 08:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-18 04:09:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	No	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0x0c7553…
10-18 04:09:11	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x9a3b84…
10-18 04:08:48	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb77303…
09-22 05:24:52	US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?	No	BUY	58	99¢	$57	0x4ae72a…
09-22 04:57:01	Will Solana dip to $40 in September?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xf9ed2f…
09-22 04:56:28	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in September?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x2f7568…
09-22 04:54:36	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?	No	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0xb94b21…
09-22 04:49:04	0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by September 30?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x28678b…
09-22 04:48:48	0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by September 30?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xb6825e…
09-21 10:50:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in September?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$60	0x6d03ef…
09-21 10:44:26	will bitcoin dip to 76k on september 21 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb2021a…
09-21 10:39:45	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0xe39e9b…
09-21 10:39:30	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xe7b6bd…
09-13 08:55:54	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xb121f8…
09-11 09:52:21	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x616d2b…
08-28 03:09:18	Will the lowest temperature in Jeddah be 25°C or below on August 28?	No	BUY	239	100¢	$239	0x92bd32…
08-28 03:08:33	Will the lowest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C on August 28?	No	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0x16dc41…
08-09 12:31:03	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xc5b6e5…
08-09 12:30:28	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xe38b35…
08-09 12:26:16	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x814fd8…
08-09 12:25:54	Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	No	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0x174530…
07-23 03:05:07	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on July 23?	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x795537…
07-23 03:02:52	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	161	98¢	$158	0xb1c2cb…
07-23 03:02:10	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on July 23?	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x74d24b…
07-23 03:00:58	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 23?	No	BUY	141	99¢	$140	0x52eac0…
07-23 02:55:31	Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on July 23?	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0xface1a…
07-23 02:52:49	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xed0a58…
07-20 07:36:34	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa9c45b…
06-29 12:40:38	Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan?	Yes	BUY	292	5¢	$15	0x92424f…
06-29 12:40:17	Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan?	Yes	BUY	221	7¢	$15	0x20af21…
06-24 03:19:47	will argentina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120771	Yes	BUY	27	87¢	$23	0x49fc7e…
06-24 03:16:22	will saudi arabia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120765	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xd3fa6d…
06-24 03:10:01	will uzbekistan reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120777	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x515830…
06-24 03:09:43	will uzbekistan reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120777	No	BUY	267	99¢	$264	0x8b376a…
06-24 03:08:32	will saudi arabia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120765	No	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0x306e07…
06-23 03:23:11	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0xbbe731…
06-18 03:42:46	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	33	93¢	$31	0xff8e0a…
06-18 02:39:47	Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia?	Yes	BUY	78	19¢	$15	0x4bef6c…
06-17 02:52:00	Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan?	Yes	BUY	211	7¢	$15	0x203708…
06-17 02:51:36	Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan?	Yes	BUY	148	10¢	$15	0xfacac4…
06-17 02:47:43	Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	Yes	BUY	99	15¢	$15	0x5d2583…
06-17 02:47:24	Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	Yes	BUY	99	15¢	$15	0x349dcd…
06-15 08:19:54	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	92	16¢	$15	0x7ec764…
06-15 08:19:36	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	91	16¢	$15	0xd35fca…
06-15 04:47:01	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$22	0x0481c3…
06-15 02:04:51	Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x1ea931…
06-14 11:49:12	Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?	Yes	BUY	99	15¢	$15	0x68a6e0…
06-14 04:21:07	Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xa119b8…
06-14 04:20:09	Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x993435…
06-14 04:18:57	Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x3ef8f6…
06-13 13:13:48	Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	99	15¢	$15	0xe2f259…
06-13 12:20:10	Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	26	57¢	$15	0xbce4ad…
05-16 07:53:34	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	BUY	121	100¢	$121	0xa7935a…
05-16 07:52:56	Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xfc9c6c…
05-16 07:52:37	Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xd82196…
05-06 06:59:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x54f895…
05-02 08:04:48	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	275	15¢	$41	0xd3187f…
04-13 09:40:45	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$41	0x55957b…
04-13 09:40:15	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x5eed51…
03-26 03:21:11	Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	94¢	$110	0x0dba02…
03-26 03:20:39	ethereum all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0xcbfc63…
03-26 02:27:19	Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in April 2026?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$28	0x10d9ed…
03-26 02:14:05	will silver si hit low 25 by end of march	No	SELL	111	100¢	$111	0x3c423d…
03-25 13:58:49	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026?	No	BUY	52	98¢	$51	0x88fc2e…
03-25 13:57:01	will crude oil cl hit low 60 by end of march 293 652 791 525 614 229 628 379 727 681 774	No	SELL	51	99¢	$51	0x5cdf92…
03-23 03:43:33	will crude oil cl hit low 60 by end of march 293 652 791 525 614 229 628 379 727 681 774	No	BUY	51	99¢	$51	0xb909c3…
03-06 08:14:01	ethereum all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xa8cea4…
03-06 08:13:23	will silver si hit low 25 by end of march	No	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0x387e33…
03-06 07:21:45	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	172	98¢	$169	0x04d0a6…
03-06 07:20:03	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xbf8531…
03-05 03:16:49	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	102	100¢	$101	0x97e7b1…
02-23 15:26:26	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	173	97¢	$168	0x6f86ee…
02-03 07:50:46	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x278c80…
01-22 12:41:22	will trump meet with xi jinping in january 2026	No	BUY	52	99¢	$51	0x398298…
01-22 12:41:04	will trump meet with emmanuel macron in january 2026	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xf8ee6f…
01-22 12:37:32	will tsla reach 645 in january	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xe91c6a…