Sinful-Limestone — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.73K

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

93.9%

Resolved

224

Trades

1,475

lifetime

Volume

$494.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$335

Open exposure

$530

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 13:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Other

43% 69% -$7,086

Politics

41% 73% +$3,237

Tech

15% 79% +$35

Sports

0% 100% +$96

Crypto

0% 64% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	+535	$511	97¢	$518	+$7	10-30 21:21
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	+8	$10	97¢	$7	-$3	09-15 13:45
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	+50	$10	6¢	$3	-$6	09-06 17:53
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	+2	$1	77¢	$1	+$0	10-31 13:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will grok 4pt20 be released on february 17 2026	20	$29.2K	19,573	9,807	+9,766	Yes	+$45	02-17 18:18
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?	23	$26.0K	13,618	13,618	+0	Yes	+$277	04-09 08:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$19.5K	9,899	9,899	+0	Yes	+$257	03-03 18:34
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	42	$19.2K	12,847	8,133	+4,714	Yes	+$111	04-30 21:44
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	16	$19.1K	9,837	9,837	+0	Yes	+$65	03-01 00:28
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	64	$15.6K	20,455	0	+20,455	No	+$4,899	05-19 14:26
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	22	$15.3K	7,834	7,834	+0	No	+$116	05-05 19:33
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	7	$13.5K	13,540	0	+13,540	Yes	+$31	04-21 14:04
will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 21 2026	35	$13.5K	13,501	0	+13,501	Yes	+$41	04-19 13:15
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	71	$13.3K	13,601	0	+13,601	Yes	+$279	04-12 18:00
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	78	$12.8K	14,066	0	+14,066	Yes	+$1,289	04-23 18:09
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	22	$12.7K	13,000	321	+12,679	Yes	+$524	07-01 10:34
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	18	$12.6K	12,521	6,178	+6,343	No	-$5,598	05-07 09:20
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	8	$12.5K	12,614	0	+12,614	Yes	+$144	04-05 13:03
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	3	$12.2K	12,457	50	+12,407	Yes	+$242	04-08 00:14
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 27 2026 182	45	$10.5K	10,681	0	+10,681	Yes	+$124	03-29 19:07
will israel take military action in gaza on march 31 2026	29	$10.5K	11,409	0	+11,409	Yes	+$915	04-02 17:25
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?	5	$10.2K	10,253	0	+10,253	Yes	+$14	04-07 17:34
gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	15	$9.9K	9,990	0	+9,990	Yes	+$111	03-03 18:37
gpt ads by march 31 269 364 978	3	$9.6K	9,715	0	+9,715	Yes	+$73	02-09 19:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$9.3K	9,369	0	+9,369	No	+$78	05-29 16:56
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	8	$9.2K	9,268	0	+9,268	No	+$103	01-07 23:31
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	19	$9.1K	9,300	0	+9,300	No	+$178	01-14 21:22
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	3	$9.0K	9,129	111	+9,018	No	+$18	01-01 19:59
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026?	11	$8.9K	8,960	0	+8,960	No	+$12	04-22 21:05
will israel take military action in gaza on march 18 2026	18	$8.7K	4,558	4,558	+0	Yes	+$15	03-19 20:32
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026?	20	$8.5K	8,611	0	+8,611	Yes	+$138	04-10 13:38
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 24 2026 996	37	$8.3K	8,390	0	+8,390	Yes	+$49	03-24 23:02
Will the US strike Syria next?	12	$8.1K	8,169	0	+8,169	Yes	+$34	01-10 21:14
will the government shutdown last 10 days or more 772 652	6	$8.1K	4,079	4,079	+0	No	+$16	02-03 19:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 13:14:48	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0xaae8ff…
10-31 09:57:43	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	149	99¢	$148	0x181183…
10-31 09:56:42	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,289	99¢	$2,266	0xfc5b39…
10-31 09:53:13	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xae1821…
10-30 21:21:34	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	93	96¢	$89	0xb7fcdf…
10-30 21:15:13	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	407	96¢	$389	0xf03f35…
09-21 07:22:44	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	15	95¢	$14	0x7833d7…
09-19 12:19:50	SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	70	91¢	$64	0xdfbea4…
09-19 12:11:53	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	75¢	$19	0x8efd4b…
09-18 22:32:21	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xa93770…
09-15 13:45:48	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	8	86¢	$6	0x9bddc0…
09-10 12:40:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	63¢	$9	0x57c157…
09-09 14:46:25	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,200?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x665c61…
09-06 18:56:45	Will CDU win less than 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$29	0x7d41f1…
09-06 18:36:45	Will CDU win less than 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x746818…
09-06 18:08:49	Will CDU win less than 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	119	99¢	$118	0x872955…
09-06 17:53:57	OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xe15aa2…
09-06 17:52:06	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x4b4f99…
09-06 17:50:39	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x148002…
09-06 17:48:33	Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,200?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x91a963…
09-06 17:36:55	Will CDU win less than 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xa60cb7…
09-06 17:36:55	Will CDU win less than 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x38cd22…
09-06 17:35:24	Will CDU win less than 20% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc489bb…
09-06 00:45:28	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0xfcf156…
09-05 22:14:54	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x66e6df…
09-04 16:33:16	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in september 2026	Yes	SELL	15	67¢	$10	0xd7100d…
09-04 16:20:07	will openais astra model be released by september 4 2026	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0xfd9900…
09-04 16:18:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0xd070b1…
09-04 10:05:27	Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?	Yes	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0xde7c89…
09-04 10:01:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xb8f485…
09-03 15:11:28	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	Yes	BUY	3,873	96¢	$3,718	0xd98cd0…
09-03 15:10:58	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	Yes	BUY	12	96¢	$11	0x8b4417…
09-03 15:10:16	Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,033	98¢	$2,000	0x5916f2…
09-03 15:09:48	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	Yes	BUY	500	96¢	$480	0x447e58…
09-03 15:09:42	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	Yes	BUY	3,033	99¢	$3,000	0x36eab3…
09-03 15:09:30	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	Yes	BUY	224	96¢	$215	0xb318ca…
09-03 15:09:28	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	Yes	BUY	375	96¢	$360	0xea2df0…
09-03 15:09:07	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	Yes	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xbee708…
07-21 23:25:49	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	100	54¢	$54	0x24a2e2…
07-21 09:36:18	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x79d39b…
07-21 09:31:34	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x065c27…
07-19 21:11:48	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0xada8f5…
07-19 21:11:34	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x809fb0…
07-19 21:11:33	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0xcd53ab…
07-19 21:04:51	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf401f5…
07-19 21:03:45	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	193	99¢	$191	0xe853d4…
07-19 21:03:34	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	370	99¢	$366	0xd18fc4…
07-19 21:03:34	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x7fffd9…
07-19 21:03:10	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb07d3c…
07-19 21:03:10	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x884df3…
07-19 21:03:10	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	332	99¢	$328	0x83fcd3…
07-19 14:36:00	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0x6bd28b…
07-19 14:34:55	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	945	92¢	$869	0xad1a49…
07-19 14:34:55	Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	55	92¢	$51	0x19865f…
07-16 17:15:02	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xa460f6…
07-16 16:48:29	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	No	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0xa2da18…
07-16 16:45:58	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 16?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x995fa8…
07-09 16:47:40	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	BUY	2,975	100¢	$2,960	0xe3b1ad…
07-09 16:44:43	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x864ddf…
07-08 10:27:44	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	1,114	99¢	$1,102	0x524aa8…
07-08 10:26:49	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0xdac7be…
07-08 10:23:28	gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534 577	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x36931a…
07-08 10:21:13	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	1,736	99¢	$1,716	0x4d0f69…
07-01 15:05:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	118	92¢	$109	0xe21b9d…
07-01 14:32:47	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	342	92¢	$314	0xc5cc2d…
07-01 14:20:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x554700…
07-01 11:46:17	gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534	Yes	BUY	148	94¢	$139	0xfc7f19…
07-01 11:46:17	gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534	Yes	BUY	519	94¢	$488	0x1e1d9f…
07-01 11:16:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534	Yes	BUY	167	94¢	$157	0xb1fee6…
07-01 11:06:58	gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534	Yes	BUY	24	94¢	$22	0xe314fc…
07-01 10:53:25	gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534	Yes	BUY	93	94¢	$87	0x4d136d…
07-01 10:36:17	gpt 5pt6 released by july 17 2026 458 893 534	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x5ad488…
07-01 10:34:40	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x6fe5a1…
07-01 10:34:40	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,475	96¢	$1,421	0x14f230…
06-29 08:10:53	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0xfe0d79…
06-29 08:10:20	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	99¢	$51	0x672760…
06-29 06:45:43	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x20bb9b…
06-29 06:38:10	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xa3dceb…
06-29 06:09:59	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0x20aae0…
06-28 18:45:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xbe83f0…
06-28 12:55:32	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xa9f053…
06-28 12:12:04	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x6e4be0…
06-28 12:12:02	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xf0df7c…
06-28 12:12:01	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x5c24ab…
06-28 12:12:01	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x172aea…
06-28 12:11:56	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	192	99¢	$189	0xe210bd…
06-28 11:15:17	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	136	99¢	$134	0xfdc5f4…
06-28 04:13:28	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	523	99¢	$516	0x98f279…
06-27 23:25:46	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	405	99¢	$400	0xe11c5f…
06-27 23:18:37	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	800	93¢	$744	0xcc7117…
06-27 23:08:07	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0xecc25e…
06-27 23:08:02	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x9098da…
06-27 22:56:29	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x9b190c…
06-27 22:56:08	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$37	0x5936d3…
06-26 10:02:02	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	320	88¢	$283	0xcffab8…
06-26 10:02:02	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x6ee55c…
06-25 20:18:47	gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	Yes	BUY	766	91¢	$697	0xf5abca…
06-25 18:23:02	gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	Yes	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x90224f…
06-25 18:23:02	gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	Yes	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0x7c8570…
06-25 18:22:11	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	234	92¢	$215	0xd0facf…