Unruly-Variant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.16K

Unrealized P&L

-$105

Hit rate

59.7%

Resolved

523

Trades

990

lifetime

Volume

$44.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$45

Open exposure

$218

6 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 10-04 20:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 113 days

Categories

Other

72% 29% -$797

Politics

25% 28% +$134

Sports

3% 15% -$498

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+294	$106	18¢	$51	-$55	07-09 01:55
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	-60	-$28	74¢	$-44	-$16	05-28 05:55
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+294	$56	14¢	$41	-$15	07-09 01:56
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	-100	-$29	38¢	$-37	-$8	06-01 12:45
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	+200	$25	12¢	$23	-$2	09-06 03:56
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+375	$30	6¢	$21	-$9	07-11 05:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?	9	$994	655	655	+0	Yes	+$258	04-08 09:54
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	9	$835	811	811	+0	No	+$61	06-08 18:28
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02?	4	$656	1,292	0	+1,292	No	-$656	06-02 20:04
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	5	$561	590	590	+0	Yes	+$262	05-19 20:23
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	6	$546	1,084	1,084	+0	Yes	+$446	06-03 04:12
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	2	$534	435	435	+0	Yes	+$334	06-30 03:12
por cas ben 2026 04 06 draw	4	$526	354	348	+5	Yes	+$175	04-06 22:35
houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	10	$521	1,308	1,008	+300	No	-$55	03-31 12:05
Spread: Kosovo (-1.5)	4	$521	438	438	+0	Kosovo	+$121	06-07 20:02
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	10	$486	13,823	779	+13,044	Yes	+$146	06-08 03:08
will iran strike uae again in march	7	$485	304	304	+0	Yes	+$104	04-05 22:05
will israel take military action in gaza on march 31 2026	5	$442	327	327	+0	Yes	+$118	04-02 18:29
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw?	3	$414	297	297	+0	Yes	+$174	06-03 20:49
Will Torino FC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?	4	$371	336	336	+0	Yes	+$251	05-24 21:47
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States?	4	$370	305	305	+0	No	+$210	06-26 03:59
fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 total 4pt5	3	$369	250	250	+0	Over	+$129	06-17 00:05
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	3	$369	300	300	+0	Yes	+$231	04-29 22:50
will israel take military action in gaza on march 28 2026	5	$353	266	266	+0	No	+$77	03-29 18:55
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	4	$335	272	272	+0	Mexico	+$36	06-05 03:28
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal?	2	$325	333	333	+0	Yes	+$305	06-23 01:58
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay?	4	$324	246	246	+0	Yes	+$164	06-16 00:07
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Senegal?	3	$317	361	361	+0	Yes	+$257	07-01 21:55
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Ghana?	5	$316	299	299	+0	Yes	+$216	07-04 03:33
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	1	$300	455	0	+455	Under	-$300	06-07 22:29
israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	2	$300	523	0	+523	No	-$300	03-28 05:09
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30?	3	$297	240	240	+0	Yes	+$183	04-30 21:02
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 1, 2026?	2	$294	173	173	+0	Yes	+$34	04-01 08:14
fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 total 3pt5	2	$277	179	179	+0	Over	+$77	06-14 21:56
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	5	$274	484	332	+152	No	+$124	05-27 22:45
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	8	$273	972	678	+294	open	—	07-09 01:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 20:18:11	Will Israel win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	246	13¢	$32	0xa00fd0…
09-06 03:59:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x97f6e8…
09-06 03:58:06	Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	BUY	214	12¢	$25	0x4b9234…
09-06 03:56:43	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$25	0x57ba41…
08-27 12:03:46	Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	142	8¢	$11	0x77cf30…
08-22 20:47:45	Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-08-22?	Yes	BUY	180	8¢	$15	0xa561ac…
08-16 20:38:03	Will Racing Club De Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	155	13¢	$20	0xc4b2c3…
08-16 00:21:34	Will Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	131	23¢	$30	0xc0733f…
08-16 00:17:00	will eisenkot join the bennett lapid alliance by august 31 2026 20260628215113848	Yes	BUY	103	7¢	$7	0xcd96f4…
08-02 02:03:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0x8d8220…
07-27 00:12:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 27	No	BUY	460	2¢	$10	0x11fab2…
07-27 00:11:39	Will SE Palmeiras vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0x4770d0…
07-25 03:31:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	SELL	222	9¢	$20	0x76af7b…
07-25 02:17:16	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	No	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0x82fec7…
07-25 02:05:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	222	9¢	$20	0x1eca11…
07-23 01:24:22	Exact Score: SC Internacional 1 - 1 Cruzeiro EC?	Yes	BUY	150	20¢	$30	0xcc0da8…
07-22 23:16:31	Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-07-22?	Yes	BUY	137	22¢	$30	0x59c393…
07-22 22:36:13	will the houthis successfully target shipping by july 23 2026	No	BUY	160	6¢	$10	0x608039…
07-22 04:05:34	andrew tate released from custody by july 31 2026 20260719025109263	Yes	BUY	189	6¢	$12	0x866f99…
07-22 03:57:34	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	244	9¢	$22	0x5b68e3…
07-22 03:57:19	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	294	3¢	$10	0xac8ae1…
07-22 03:55:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	150	6¢	$9	0xc941e2…
07-22 01:17:18	Exact Score: CA Mineiro 1 - 1 EC Bahia?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x5c3348…
07-21 22:52:58	Exact Score: CA Mineiro 1 - 1 EC Bahia?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xf9af73…
07-21 22:43:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0x1c2b63…
07-21 22:41:33	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	380	5¢	$20	0xf8f5f2…
07-19 22:53:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	SELL	165	10¢	$16	0x4addd9…
07-19 21:55:54	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	202	7¢	$15	0x49c7c9…
07-19 07:00:27	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0x47aea6…
07-19 07:00:10	Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x661ab0…
07-19 06:58:57	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	698	4¢	$29	0xcc1d6d…
07-19 06:58:40	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	449	11¢	$48	0x7747f4…
07-19 00:02:19	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	SELL	622	3¢	$18	0x7f9189…
07-18 21:13:22	Will France vs. England end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xe2fa76…
07-18 20:52:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	No	BUY	165	18¢	$30	0xc07b08…
07-18 20:31:19	Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x1dbbce…
07-18 20:31:07	Exact Score: France 3 - 0 England?	Yes	BUY	182	5¢	$10	0xa58de1…
07-18 08:13:46	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	370	3¢	$10	0x44bab3…
07-17 19:35:12	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	BUY	622	3¢	$17	0xa0be49…
07-15 02:35:07	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	207	19¢	$40	0x89cb60…
07-14 19:10:31	Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?	Yes	BUY	235	17¢	$40	0xcfc877…
07-13 02:10:56	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	698	3¢	$20	0xc0f2b2…
07-13 02:10:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	449	7¢	$30	0x07807e…
07-13 02:05:44	Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	439	5¢	$20	0x67f741…
07-12 03:03:55	Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	214	100¢	$214	0x48c877…
07-12 02:46:28	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	383	36¢	$137	0x77e9cf…
07-12 02:10:46	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	230	13¢	$30	0x2ec953…
07-12 02:09:23	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	107	47¢	$50	0x30eb9f…
07-11 22:52:04	Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	260	19¢	$50	0x843c87…
07-11 21:19:52	Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	273	11¢	$30	0xe5047d…
07-11 21:19:40	Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	214	14¢	$30	0x2d60f6…
07-11 21:18:07	Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 England?	Yes	BUY	63	3¢	$2	0x07b258…
07-11 21:17:55	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 England?	Yes	BUY	422	7¢	$30	0xec8c31…
07-11 05:44:26	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	294	3¢	$10	0x34ee3d…
07-11 05:43:28	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0xc562a6…
07-11 05:39:40	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	375	8¢	$30	0xc08802…
07-10 21:19:52	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium?	Yes	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0xb4acd2…
07-10 20:56:40	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium?	Yes	SELL	67	84¢	$56	0xd66a2e…
07-10 20:26:01	Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium?	Yes	BUY	133	30¢	$40	0x621781…
07-09 21:58:25	Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Morocco?	Yes	SELL	115	85¢	$98	0x70ec8b…
07-09 06:09:50	Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	231	13¢	$30	0x179046…
07-09 06:09:35	Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0xe4ad81…
07-09 01:56:34	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0x08717c…
07-09 01:56:19	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163	Yes	BUY	274	11¢	$30	0xe2654f…
07-09 01:55:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0x64c63e…
07-07 21:58:44	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Colombia	BUY	213	54¢	$115	0xe946f3…
07-07 21:58:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	214	13¢	$28	0x4cfdcf…
07-07 21:56:52	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	294	15¢	$44	0xa5541b…
07-07 21:56:41	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163	Yes	SELL	536	8¢	$43	0x294fa6…
07-07 21:55:59	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Colombia	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x31637b…
07-07 21:52:10	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 extra time	No	BUY	150	10¢	$15	0xc5ac84…
07-07 21:28:56	Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Colombia?	Yes	BUY	150	20¢	$30	0xbc94a7…
07-07 21:27:10	Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Colombia?	Yes	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0x2f6a50…
07-07 21:26:17	Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0xb8c3f0…
07-07 00:17:28	Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	125	24¢	$30	0xfeb31e…
07-06 19:04:59	Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Belgium?	Yes	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0x3d4978…
07-06 19:04:08	Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain?	Yes	BUY	250	12¢	$30	0x09488e…
07-06 02:56:25	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	Mexico	BUY	467	15¢	$70	0x9941de…
07-06 02:30:32	Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	654	11¢	$70	0x05efc2…
07-06 01:52:07	Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	319	9¢	$30	0xfd9152…
07-06 01:44:40	Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	148	20¢	$30	0x008659…
07-06 01:44:07	Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	333	9¢	$30	0x7848a0…
07-04 21:28:04	Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	155	16¢	$25	0xfccb85…
07-04 21:26:35	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 btts first half	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x033a92…
07-04 21:25:41	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 btts first half	Yes	BUY	25	9¢	$2	0x7fcb06…
07-04 03:33:01	Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Ghana?	Yes	SELL	149	100¢	$149	0xeb624e…
07-04 03:25:13	Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Ghana?	Yes	SELL	149	78¢	$116	0x9427e5…
07-04 01:41:31	Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Ghana?	Yes	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x7843af…
07-04 01:41:05	Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Ghana?	Yes	BUY	286	14¢	$40	0xeecd40…
07-04 01:40:10	Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Ghana?	Yes	SELL	125	15¢	$19	0x779fff…
07-03 21:43:32	Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0x95c1d3…
07-03 21:24:16	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Yes	BUY	390	8¢	$30	0x84eca6…
07-03 21:23:59	Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Yes	BUY	158	19¢	$30	0xb83f9a…
07-03 20:15:34	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 team to advance	Australia	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0xb51812…
07-03 20:03:16	Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Ghana?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x77536d…
07-03 20:01:43	Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Ghana?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x4f0c17…
07-03 20:01:35	Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Ghana?	Yes	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0xa7dad1…
07-03 19:56:46	Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	118	96¢	$113	0x2bedfd…
07-03 19:24:22	Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	170	18¢	$30	0x1d3a64…
07-03 12:20:43	Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	143	14¢	$20	0x70eb19…