Careful-Hint — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

423

lifetime

Volume

$9.24K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-16

last 07-19 15:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

59% — —

Other

28% — —

Politics

8% — —

Sports

6% 0% $-10

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-1	$-0	5¢	$-0	+$0	06-15 15:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	7	$1.7K	853	853	+0	open	—	03-24 16:22
will bitcoin reach 110k in february 2026	1	$1000	1,002	0	+1,002	open	—	02-16 16:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	6	$795	615	204	+411	open	—	04-12 22:40
will hyperliquid reach 48 in february	1	$500	503	0	+503	open	—	02-16 16:03
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May?	1	$400	401	0	+401	open	—	05-21 00:15
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	8	$388	398	398	+0	open	—	03-25 12:31
will hyperliquid reach 52 in march	2	$330	336	0	+336	open	—	03-24 16:29
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$310	311	0	+311	open	—	06-22 22:17
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$303	155	155	+0	open	—	03-24 16:22
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April?	2	$218	223	0	+223	open	—	04-19 20:02
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	4	$210	106	106	+0	open	—	03-06 12:00
ethereum above 1800 on march 3	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	03-02 17:53
bitcoin above 58k on march 3	1	$200	201	0	+201	open	—	03-02 17:55
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in April?	1	$200	207	0	+207	open	—	04-12 22:39
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	1	$200	203	0	+203	open	—	02-23 12:16
will hyperliquid reach 40 in february	1	$130	131	0	+131	open	—	02-23 12:15
will mrbeasts next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2	6	$128	65	65	+0	open	—	03-23 08:27
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$100	107	0	+107	open	—	06-22 22:17
btc updown 5m 1774485600	2	$58	92	23	+69	open	—	03-26 00:40
btc updown 5m 1772552700	3	$57	122	0	+122	open	—	03-03 15:49
will bitcoin reach 75k in march 2026	4	$55	45	45	+0	open	—	03-09 14:59
btc updown 15m 1771287300	15	$52	102	0	+102	open	—	02-17 00:29
btc updown 5m 1772553300	5	$50	86	0	+86	open	—	03-03 15:59
btc updown 5m 1771269000	3	$47	66	18	+48	open	—	02-16 19:13
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	2	$45	105	0	+105	open	—	07-07 17:34
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	1	$45	45	0	+45	open	—	02-23 12:44
btc updown 15m 1771267500	8	$41	187	0	+187	open	—	02-16 18:58
btc updown 5m 1772552400	8	$33	51	0	+51	open	—	03-03 15:44
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	2	$31	30	30	+0	open	—	07-06 21:08
btc updown 5m 1774483800	1	$30	60	0	+60	open	—	03-26 00:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 15:05:18	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	Yes	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x1770d0…
07-15 10:06:10	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x6d0f47…
07-15 10:06:01	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals jude bellingham gte1	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xe0bad2…
07-15 10:05:46	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals harry kane gte1	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x91a5de…
07-15 10:05:26	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x056ebb…
07-14 18:40:34	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x9f2ad4…
07-09 13:59:25	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x6b6837…
07-09 13:59:13	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	England	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xff0b20…
07-09 13:58:58	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Spain	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x402fcf…
07-07 22:24:08	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Colombia	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x1827d9…
07-07 19:41:05	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x40ed92…
07-07 17:34:59	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xf53371…
07-07 17:24:02	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	77	52¢	$40	0x37d8ca…
07-06 21:08:47	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	30	36¢	$11	0x4a4d3d…
07-06 20:48:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x8f2e16…
07-05 23:52:52	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	Mexico	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xdc3ccd…
07-05 23:45:37	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 goals harry kane gte1	Yes	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xbe635e…
07-01 22:27:50	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0xa725eb…
06-22 22:17:59	Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	107	94¢	$100	0x841a33…
06-22 22:17:41	Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xfbef1f…
06-15 15:12:49	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xa54260…
06-15 15:10:37	Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x781265…
06-15 15:10:22	Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe5f6bb…
06-15 15:06:18	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0xd763e2…
06-15 15:06:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0xcc6e51…
05-31 11:26:52	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x302a4a…
05-21 00:15:37	Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May?	No	BUY	401	100¢	$400	0x1af089…
04-19 20:02:36	Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April?	No	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x7d1026…
04-16 11:35:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	13	81¢	$10	0x1aff8e…
04-16 11:35:30	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xa07382…
04-12 22:45:35	epl mac ars 2026 04 19 draw	Yes	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0x6e5122…
04-12 22:44:55	epl mac ars 2026 04 19 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xc0e591…
04-12 22:44:31	epl mac ars 2026 04 19 mac	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xdb0f7f…
04-12 22:43:15	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x332eb7…
04-12 22:40:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	205	97¢	$200	0x240df1…
04-12 22:39:57	Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in April?	No	BUY	207	97¢	$200	0x571e88…
04-12 22:39:37	Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April?	No	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0xf4e48a…
04-12 22:38:27	Will Manchester City finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	109	3¢	$3	0x683b1c…
03-26 00:40:05	btc updown 5m 1774485600	Up	SELL	23	58¢	$13	0x7709b0…
03-26 00:38:39	btc updown 5m 1774485300	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xe052d6…
03-26 00:37:47	btc updown 5m 1774485600	Up	BUY	92	49¢	$45	0x58e7d6…
03-26 00:36:07	btc updown 5m 1774485300	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x481821…
03-26 00:34:07	btc updown 5m 1774485000	Up	BUY	31	50¢	$16	0x0d4700…
03-26 00:27:57	btc updown 5m 1774484700	Up	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x3e92cc…
03-26 00:25:35	btc updown 5m 1774484700	Up	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0xd52820…
03-26 00:24:27	btc updown 5m 1774484400	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc1285d…
03-26 00:20:09	btc updown 5m 1774484100	Up	BUY	510	1¢	$5	0x3ac9b4…
03-26 00:19:39	btc updown 5m 1774484100	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x6f17fa…
03-26 00:17:59	btc updown 5m 1774484100	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x94b771…
03-26 00:10:39	btc updown 5m 1774483800	Up	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x037f17…
03-26 00:09:43	btc updown 5m 1774483500	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x3074a8…
03-26 00:07:37	btc updown 5m 1774483500	Up	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0x561971…
03-26 00:06:51	btc updown 5m 1774483500	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x09b7bb…
03-26 00:04:01	btc updown 5m 1774483200	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x22c54c…
03-26 00:01:15	btc updown 5m 1774483200	Up	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0xee2b67…
03-25 23:59:55	btc updown 5m 1774482900	Down	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xf8ee7e…
03-25 23:58:35	btc updown 5m 1774482900	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xf8dc6c…
03-25 23:58:05	btc updown 5m 1774482900	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xc03728…
03-25 23:57:31	btc updown 5m 1774482900	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xdee806…
03-25 12:31:07	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	194	82¢	$159	0xea64c3…
03-25 12:30:57	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	204	17¢	$35	0x69577d…
03-24 16:29:33	will hyperliquid reach 52 in march	No	BUY	285	98¢	$280	0xac9c72…
03-24 16:27:55	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xd1d497…
03-24 16:27:11	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x39ffbf…
03-24 16:26:41	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x0fee25…
03-24 16:22:49	microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	No	SELL	133	100¢	$132	0x7907a7…
03-24 16:22:35	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	155	99¢	$153	0x133492…
03-24 16:12:43	btc updown 5m 1774368600	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xe5a808…
03-24 13:37:09	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	180	19¢	$34	0x605813…
03-24 13:06:03	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	85	14¢	$12	0xdda8cf…
03-24 12:26:03	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x990af9…
03-24 12:22:37	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x5775c3…
03-24 12:18:49	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	92	13¢	$12	0x9aef12…
03-23 08:27:59	will mrbeasts next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xcb012c…
03-23 06:17:29	will mrbeasts next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xe8bd09…
03-23 01:21:49	will mrbeasts next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2	No	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0x2781d0…
03-22 21:36:37	btc updown 5m 1774215300	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x97baf8…
03-22 21:34:35	will mrbeasts next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x188108…
03-22 21:33:21	will mrbeasts next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x3727e2…
03-22 21:26:25	will mrbeasts next video get between 47 and 50 million views on day 2	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x51779e…
03-22 21:24:55	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xf48928…
03-22 21:23:51	will carlos alcaraz win the 2026 mens singles tournament at the miami open	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x946ada…
03-22 21:23:17	will carlos alcaraz win the 2026 mens singles tournament at the miami open	Yes	BUY	3	16¢	$1	0x612397…
03-22 21:22:07	will hyperliquid reach 52 in march	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x2e0d1b…
03-22 21:19:21	will carlos alcaraz win the 2026 mens singles tournament at the miami open	Yes	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x2cdece…
03-22 21:16:27	will carlos alcaraz win the 2026 mens singles tournament at the miami open	Yes	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0x4919e5…
03-22 21:15:55	will jannik sinner win the 2026 mens singles tournament at the miami open	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x5d2a2e…
03-22 21:14:21	will jannik sinner win the 2026 mens singles tournament at the miami open	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0xdb9a44…
03-22 21:13:13	will jannik sinner win the 2026 mens singles tournament at the miami open	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd87262…
03-22 21:09:45	microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	No	SELL	378	99¢	$376	0xebac54…
03-22 20:34:13	btc updown 5m 1774211400	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x5f42e8…
03-22 20:32:35	btc updown 5m 1774211400	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xd3508f…
03-22 20:30:33	btc updown 5m 1774211400	Up	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x6cc04c…
03-22 20:30:33	btc updown 5m 1774211400	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5e8d9e…
03-22 20:30:33	btc updown 5m 1774211400	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x014fcc…
03-22 20:27:07	btc updown 5m 1774211100	Up	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x70f4d2…
03-22 20:25:17	btc updown 5m 1774211100	Up	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0x0fa2a5…
03-22 20:24:49	btc updown 5m 1774210800	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xfb22de…
03-22 20:00:29	btc updown 5m 1774209600	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xbbfc93…
03-22 19:58:55	btc updown 5m 1774209300	Up	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x5e52e3…