Defenseless-Spat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

25.1%

Resolved

Trades

157

lifetime

Volume

$15.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$98

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 07-26 16:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

54% 50% +$32

Other

43% 0% $-22

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$1.4K	0	1,996	-1,996	open	—	06-17 06:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$955	1,085	0	+1,085	open	—	06-25 11:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	4	$781	407	407	+0	open	—	05-10 03:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$680	483	483	+0	open	—	05-28 17:46
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	2	$600	681	0	+681	open	—	06-01 17:39
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$597	310	310	+0	open	—	05-29 05:45
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$564	297	297	+0	open	—	05-20 19:30
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	4	$523	649	0	+649	open	—	05-29 15:12
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	3	$510	804	0	+804	open	—	06-11 18:12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	2	$503	260	260	+0	open	—	06-05 09:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$500	916	0	+916	open	—	05-20 19:33
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$487	280	280	+0	open	—	06-15 05:00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$460	279	279	+0	open	—	04-23 12:05
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	2	$416	220	220	+0	open	—	06-06 17:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	3	$381	334	334	+0	Yes	$-19	05-03 05:36
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$368	200	200	+0	open	—	05-10 03:37
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	2	$368	200	200	+0	open	—	04-23 11:44
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	3	$348	369	0	+369	open	—	06-05 09:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$300	0	500	-500	open	—	05-29 13:34
ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	3	$296	256	56	+200	open	—	06-17 03:58
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	7	$255	300	300	+0	open	—	07-26 16:58
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	2	$223	145	145	+0	open	—	05-04 09:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$211	114	114	+0	open	—	04-26 15:03
Will Andrew Tate attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	2	$202	103	103	+0	open	—	07-03 11:20
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	1	$200	333	0	+333	open	—	07-19 19:13
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	1	$200	226	0	+226	open	—	06-01 11:04
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?	3	$198	200	0	+200	open	—	06-24 16:08
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	3	$188	99	99	+0	open	—	05-16 14:27
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	1	$176	200	0	+200	open	—	04-22 09:00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	2	$170	90	90	+0	open	—	06-13 04:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-26 16:58:18	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	75	47¢	$35	0xe0ea65…
07-26 01:17:18	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	10	55¢	$5	0xc89337…
07-26 00:59:03	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	40	55¢	$22	0xb8bd73…
07-26 00:55:27	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	25	55¢	$14	0x429aa7…
07-23 13:04:01	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	22	45¢	$10	0x104438…
07-23 13:03:54	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	128	45¢	$58	0xb39630…
07-19 19:13:33	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	333	60¢	$200	0xcce847…
07-15 20:34:52	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	131	76¢	$100	0x9fff39…
07-14 18:59:43	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	180	55¢	$100	0x48f9b3…
07-14 18:51:46	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	150	1¢	$2	0x9da876…
07-11 19:02:58	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte3	Yes	BUY	62	3¢	$2	0xc18d20…
07-11 19:02:31	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte2	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xdfb76e…
07-11 19:02:20	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte1	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x5835e6…
07-11 19:00:34	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xe2b12b…
07-10 18:48:58	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 goals leandro trossard gte1	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xa0f873…
07-09 14:44:13	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 goals kylian mbappe gte2	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xf895c6…
07-07 20:04:32	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xd7e79f…
07-06 19:36:46	will the announcers say shot 10 times during the usa vs belgium fifa world cup match 20260706134348886	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x27fd30…
07-03 11:20:29	Will Andrew Tate attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	103	100¢	$102	0xd4ddd6…
07-03 11:19:28	Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x98a1b8…
07-02 15:28:43	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 spread home 1pt5	Spain	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x3606ab…
06-30 03:18:31	Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb11e1f…
06-28 20:25:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xf9a4fd…
06-28 19:51:17	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x9c0edd…
06-28 19:15:14	will donald trump publicly insult keir starmer by june 30 2026	No	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0x32acfb…
06-28 19:13:43	will donald trump publicly insult viktor orbn by june 30 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9628d7…
06-28 13:17:01	taylor swift x travis kelce get married by august 31	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x278b84…
06-28 13:15:16	Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x8ee3ac…
06-28 13:13:58	Will Andrew Tate attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	103	98¢	$100	0xc24539…
06-27 19:45:28	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0xdccfac…
06-25 11:04:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	218	92¢	$200	0x5c6ef3…
06-24 18:12:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	313	96¢	$300	0x4d95ea…
06-24 16:08:22	Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	151	99¢	$149	0xafc8a7…
06-24 15:40:53	Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x9357c0…
06-24 03:54:14	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	300	37¢	$111	0x287cdb…
06-24 03:44:40	Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xf5782b…
06-23 22:44:56	will donald trump publicly insult kevin warsh by june 30 2026	No	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0x5f5f2d…
06-23 18:48:29	will donald trump publicly insult kevin warsh by june 30 2026	No	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0x61038e…
06-22 03:04:04	will donald trump publicly insult kevin warsh by june 30 2026	No	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0xea4094…
06-21 22:29:01	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	19	84¢	$16	0xc4cc76…
06-21 22:28:32	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	29	84¢	$25	0xc006a6…
06-21 10:09:17	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	49	72¢	$35	0x7cce7c…
06-20 14:08:04	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	114	10¢	$11	0x9b57f8…
06-20 14:03:13	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	36	10¢	$4	0xad8976…
06-17 06:09:26	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	749	72¢	$540	0x308a44…
06-17 05:26:35	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	249	72¢	$179	0x52a4c2…
06-17 03:58:47	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x7ef70d…
06-15 16:39:06	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	BUY	3,500	0¢	$17	0xf3b6e9…
06-15 05:04:16	us and iran sign an agreement by july 31 2026 20260611221049854	No	SELL	166	14¢	$23	0x5836aa…
06-15 05:03:57	us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	No	SELL	74	15¢	$11	0xf587d3…
06-15 05:00:57	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	280	88¢	$247	0x0c07a7…
06-14 04:39:40	us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	No	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x083bc3…
06-14 04:39:04	us and iran sign an agreement by july 31 2026 20260611221049854	No	BUY	166	9¢	$15	0x09a669…
06-13 04:16:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	90	97¢	$88	0x800709…
06-13 04:14:33	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	111	63¢	$70	0xbba95c…
06-11 18:13:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0x342382…
06-11 18:12:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	500	68¢	$340	0xb35fe4…
06-11 18:10:51	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	998	73¢	$729	0x732d41…
06-11 13:47:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	90	92¢	$83	0xdb6c53…
06-11 03:46:52	spacex ipo closing share price updown on first day 20260607181533420	Up	SELL	40	76¢	$30	0x9e60cf…
06-10 22:49:45	spacex ipo closing share price updown on first day 20260607181533420	Up	SELL	60	76¢	$46	0x72ef14…
06-09 13:04:57	spacex ipo closing share price updown on first day 20260607181533420	Up	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xfab596…
06-06 17:57:39	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x00294e…
06-06 17:56:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	220	99¢	$216	0x6a8352…
06-05 09:41:19	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	265	94¢	$250	0x3ba0bc…
06-05 09:39:19	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	260	97¢	$253	0x861491…
06-05 04:05:06	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	64	94¢	$60	0x08fcf0…
06-05 04:03:52	ECB rate cut in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x62bb25…
06-05 04:01:06	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xe6fae0…
06-04 03:19:58	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x70e613…
06-03 15:07:39	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x979526…
06-03 14:50:21	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	No	SELL	56	96¢	$54	0x55af5b…
06-02 11:33:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0x346f2a…
06-02 06:50:28	Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	No	BUY	175	91¢	$160	0xdccc54…
06-01 17:39:17	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	471	85¢	$400	0x4e5678…
06-01 14:15:18	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x67b33d…
06-01 12:02:16	Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	No	BUY	72	84¢	$60	0x45e440…
06-01 11:04:20	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	BUY	226	89¢	$200	0x4dd23a…
05-31 10:21:01	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	47	85¢	$40	0x9460c1…
05-30 17:10:59	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x957cb0…
05-29 17:31:15	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	No	SELL	239	8¢	$20	0xe06eb0…
05-29 17:30:24	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	333	2¢	$7	0x684a9a…
05-29 17:30:01	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	312	2¢	$6	0x8d5e21…
05-29 15:12:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	65	72¢	$47	0xf72700…
05-29 15:12:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	35	73¢	$26	0xcd8cd2…
05-29 14:04:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0xeb07ef…
05-29 14:02:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x3d8794…
05-29 13:34:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	500	60¢	$300	0x8c2c8f…
05-29 05:47:10	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	236	85¢	$200	0x157e11…
05-29 05:45:44	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	310	100¢	$309	0xa8dca4…
05-29 04:04:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	260	96¢	$250	0x51a22b…
05-28 18:18:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	313	80¢	$250	0x4bd8d3…
05-28 17:46:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	483	99¢	$480	0x450d89…
05-26 11:08:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	130	29¢	$38	0x53f63e…
05-20 19:33:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	375	80¢	$300	0xad0946…
05-20 19:30:12	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	297	97¢	$289	0x083dc3…
05-19 08:34:38	Will Amer Sports (AS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	42	9¢	$4	0x558544…
05-19 07:27:40	Will Amer Sports (AS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x936e33…
05-17 12:04:31	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xf15809…
05-17 11:53:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	130	16¢	$21	0x867787…