First-Sphere — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.13K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

86.1%

Resolved

Trades

19,682

lifetime

Volume

$15.0M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$764

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 08-08 23:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Other

52% 30% $-2,091

Politics

39% 83% +$1,572

Crypto

3% 100% +$0

Sports

3% 50% $-613

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 158 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	81	$467.4K	235,921	232,323	+3,598	open	—	02-04 00:08
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	304	$276.1K	163,254	147,444	+15,809	open	—	04-04 14:19
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	246	$237.9K	123,261	122,135	+1,126	open	—	02-21 02:43
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	69	$215.9K	132,231	126,478	+5,752	open	—	03-04 00:39
gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	54	$214.4K	113,946	100,695	+13,252	open	—	03-06 02:49
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	37	$207.2K	197,956	10,000	+187,956	open	—	02-03 23:19
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	48	$199.2K	99,744	99,744	+0	open	—	03-04 15:28
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	236	$187.2K	100,362	97,777	+2,584	open	—	03-15 02:21
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	20	$170.9K	97,478	73,626	+23,852	open	—	02-10 02:30
netanyahu out by march 31 854	47	$168.5K	100,655	72,815	+27,840	open	—	04-02 22:43
Will the US strike Iran next?	99	$162.6K	97,522	65,767	+31,755	open	—	02-11 22:50
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	14	$159.4K	80,000	80,000	+0	open	—	04-08 19:55
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	168	$150.2K	89,233	86,933	+2,301	open	—	02-27 23:16
cbb akron txtech 2026 03 20	91	$143.2K	114,945	144,945	-30,000	open	—	03-20 12:21
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	207	$134.1K	94,985	194,984	-100,000	open	—	03-10 19:57
cbb tx gnzg 2026 03 21	133	$126.8K	200,000	200,000	+0	open	—	03-21 16:17
Will the US strike Iran next?	130	$122.4K	75,646	47,463	+28,183	open	—	02-19 23:07
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	69	$108.8K	55,000	55,000	+0	open	—	02-23 01:23
cbb troy nebr 2026 03 19	23	$106.4K	48,146	60,221	-12,074	open	—	03-19 18:00
cbb uconn mich 2026 04 06	23	$104.0K	200,000	200,000	+0	open	—	04-07 00:40
will iran strike israel on march 3	60	$98.0K	51,220	49,140	+2,080	open	—	03-07 01:52
will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	214	$95.4K	48,680	48,679	+0	open	—	02-23 18:38
Will the US strike Somalia next?	62	$95.4K	70,401	26,069	+44,332	open	—	02-04 22:39
will israel or the us target an iranian nuclear facility 276	16	$93.5K	44,934	49,932	-4,998	open	—	03-04 00:01
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	26	$92.6K	45,744	47,017	-1,273	open	—	02-01 10:51
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	84	$91.2K	61,975	39,134	+22,841	open	—	04-01 01:20
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	29	$89.7K	53,625	37,320	+16,305	open	—	02-27 00:58
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	44	$86.4K	80,000	80,000	+0	open	—	03-04 16:19
cbb lehi pvam 2026 03 18	25	$85.8K	80,383	80,173	+210	open	—	03-18 23:31
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	153	$84.2K	51,622	51,036	+586	open	—	04-28 10:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-08 23:36:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x18b887…
08-08 20:16:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	1,990	93¢	$1,843	0xd3e8f1…
08-08 07:00:31	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	1,970	76¢	$1,497	0xf8e097…
08-08 06:30:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	SELL	2,000	1¢	$20	0xf8f0c5…
08-08 00:22:25	Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?	Yes	BUY	2,000	2¢	$34	0xddb8b9…
08-07 22:34:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	2,000	2¢	$44	0x701050…
08-07 15:35:46	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	102	92¢	$94	0xe6b6dd…
08-07 15:32:22	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	500	92¢	$460	0x583f22…
08-07 15:30:48	will tony score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260806170107427	No	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0x933ba5…
08-07 15:30:45	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	1,896	92¢	$1,744	0x053549…
08-07 15:30:13	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	290	92¢	$267	0x47b19e…
08-07 15:27:18	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	16	92¢	$14	0x442e86…
08-07 15:19:52	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	861	92¢	$792	0x8e4113…
08-07 08:27:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489	No	BUY	2,000	4¢	$82	0x90a4f8…
08-07 05:14:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	2,000	97¢	$1,932	0xb8c8c8…
08-07 04:52:37	will tony score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260806170107427	No	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x0b27ae…
08-07 04:49:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	2,000	97¢	$1,932	0x73b93a…
08-07 04:47:16	will tony score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260806170107427	Yes	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x013104…
08-07 04:46:43	will tony score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260806170107427	Yes	BUY	3	93¢	$2	0x8be337…
08-07 04:46:40	will tony score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260806170107427	No	BUY	300	6¢	$18	0x882304…
08-07 02:41:06	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	24	92¢	$22	0x187fa0…
08-07 02:40:45	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	438	92¢	$403	0x29c12a…
08-07 02:35:46	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xd11bec…
08-07 02:35:46	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x5ffe2d…
08-07 02:35:46	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x4df3bd…
08-07 02:35:46	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	12	92¢	$11	0x2c2aed…
08-07 02:35:43	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xe12bb3…
08-06 10:33:05	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	847	92¢	$780	0xe95736…
08-05 01:43:56	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	667	65¢	$433	0x340713…
08-04 19:11:57	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	70	65¢	$46	0x467789…
08-04 13:31:15	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xe89fc4…
08-04 12:27:51	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0xc4f9a6…
08-04 12:26:36	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	57	65¢	$37	0x345e63…
08-04 12:26:33	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xb632d7…
08-04 12:26:33	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0xa4fd28…
08-04 12:26:33	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	33	65¢	$21	0x6be6a3…
08-04 12:26:32	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	1,500	65¢	$975	0x2406c7…
08-04 04:12:57	will a new country join the abraham accords by august 31 1785517679415	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$7	0xfee4de…
08-03 21:12:48	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xd42479…
08-03 21:12:47	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	411	65¢	$267	0xcdbc27…
08-03 14:22:47	will a new country join the abraham accords by august 31 1785517679415	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$9	0xb6ce1d…
08-03 06:53:51	will hood reach 125 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	300	4¢	$12	0x3c55c1…
08-03 04:02:56	will hood reach 125 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0xa322d2…
08-02 21:52:02	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	BUY	2,000	67¢	$1,340	0x26655b…
08-02 11:34:56	will hood reach 125 in august 2026	No	BUY	19	92¢	$17	0x2b4225…
08-01 17:15:12	untitled market 1 20260629173634756	Yes	BUY	221	0¢	$0	0xa2b05f…
08-01 17:13:23	untitled market 1 20260629173634756	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x896b7c…
08-01 17:08:05	untitled market 1 20260629173634756	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x2d0b5c…
08-01 17:05:27	untitled market 1 20260629173634756	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x614642…
08-01 17:00:51	untitled market 1 20260629173634756	Yes	BUY	49	0¢	$0	0xd824b0…
08-01 16:17:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5,000	75¢	$3,750	0x630576…
08-01 07:13:03	untitled market 1 20260629171638317	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$2	0xad2351…
08-01 06:56:48	will epic games valuation hit high 14 by july 31 20260629184732964	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x9624e4…
07-30 22:05:14	will anthropics valuation hit low 900 by july 31 20260629184429520	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$2	0xa4e308…
07-30 17:57:24	tread fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	14	40¢	$6	0xc6f117…
07-30 17:57:24	tread fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0xb0037f…
07-30 13:03:57	tread fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	28	40¢	$11	0x8f2e96…
07-30 13:03:54	tread fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	36	40¢	$14	0xbda036…
07-30 12:53:23	tread fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	88	40¢	$35	0xbd83e9…
07-30 12:40:02	tread fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	13	40¢	$5	0x63b5b4…
07-30 04:03:59	tread fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	55	40¢	$22	0x97ae82…
07-30 03:01:35	tread fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	54	40¢	$22	0x814a5e…
07-30 03:01:35	tread fdv above 80m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	92	40¢	$37	0x181e07…
07-30 02:14:20	tread fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	824	30¢	$247	0x2c523c…
07-27 04:48:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	3,000	85¢	$2,550	0xc45834…
07-26 13:41:10	tread fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	30	30¢	$9	0x01afd0…
07-26 06:26:27	will bytedances valuation hit high 850b by july 31 20260630205251334	Yes	BUY	56	0¢	$0	0x3edc59…
07-26 06:18:31	will bytedances valuation hit high 850b by july 31 20260630205251334	Yes	BUY	51	0¢	$0	0xe40b53…
07-26 06:18:30	will bytedances valuation hit high 850b by july 31 20260630205251334	Yes	BUY	53	0¢	$0	0x99a3c1…
07-26 06:18:30	will bytedances valuation hit high 850b by july 31 20260630205251334	Yes	BUY	54	0¢	$0	0x1fb5ac…
07-26 06:18:22	will bytedances valuation hit high 850b by july 31 20260630205251334	Yes	BUY	54	0¢	$0	0xccb2aa…
07-26 06:18:22	will bytedances valuation hit high 850b by july 31 20260630205251334	Yes	BUY	55	0¢	$0	0xb9bb2c…
07-26 06:18:19	will bytedances valuation hit high 850b by july 31 20260630205251334	Yes	BUY	57	0¢	$0	0x8fb0b4…
07-26 04:40:58	will bytedances valuation hit high 850b by july 31 20260630205251334	Yes	BUY	53	0¢	$0	0x0ded0b…
07-24 14:37:54	will spy reach 800 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xab3d81…
07-24 10:39:54	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	390	61¢	$238	0xf9bc5d…
07-24 07:42:06	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x6c5cd3…
07-24 07:32:00	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	51	61¢	$31	0x0f4f83…
07-24 07:26:43	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	1,543	61¢	$941	0x33ec62…
07-24 06:51:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2,000	71¢	$1,420	0x83c053…
07-23 10:29:52	will lockheed martin lmt q2 total backlog be above 200b 20260707030224308	Yes	SELL	146	49¢	$71	0x7c5a51…
07-23 05:23:07	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt95b 20260707031326383	Yes	SELL	380	85¢	$323	0x56eb87…
07-23 05:22:36	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt9b 20260707031326382	Yes	SELL	197	90¢	$178	0x44a5f5…
07-23 02:52:06	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt9b 20260707031326382	Yes	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0x23c81f…
07-22 18:16:37	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt9b 20260707031326382	Yes	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0xd424fc…
07-22 14:33:55	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt9b 20260707031326382	Yes	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x245a7b…
07-22 12:36:24	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt9b 20260707031326382	Yes	SELL	14	90¢	$13	0xbaab97…
07-22 10:25:57	will ge vernova gev q2 orders be above 20b 20260707031052773	Yes	SELL	139	64¢	$89	0x1c8f62…
07-21 17:15:21	tread fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	46	30¢	$14	0xcbc263…
07-21 15:18:33	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt9b 20260707031326382	Yes	SELL	195	90¢	$176	0xcd22cc…
07-21 11:53:40	will openais valuation hit low 725b by july 31 20260629222029485	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x3ebefd…
07-21 05:15:25	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt9b 20260707031326382	Yes	SELL	51	90¢	$46	0x2f85bc…
07-20 17:18:45	will andurils valuation hit high 150 by july 31 20260629184730571	Yes	SELL	25	0¢	$0	0x4c919c…
07-20 13:04:10	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt95b 20260707031326383	Yes	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0xc5bda8…
07-20 11:56:45	will honeywell technologies hon q2 building automation sales be above 1pt95b 20260707031326383	Yes	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x5d9311…
07-18 23:39:03	will openais valuation hit low 725b by july 31 20260629222029485	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0xb2dab5…
07-18 23:30:58	will openais valuation hit low 725b by july 31 20260629222029485	No	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x3c1e93…
07-18 19:29:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	5,000	89¢	$4,430	0xbb0b45…
07-18 13:57:27	will openais valuation hit low 500b by december 31 785 717	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xe437f5…
07-18 13:27:40	will openais valuation hit low 500b by december 31 785 717	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x84e60e…