Insecure-Penguin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$48

Unrealized P&L

-$180

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

322

lifetime

Volume

$33.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$105

Open exposure

$1.04K

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-28

last 07-04 03:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

52% 100% +$32

Other

22% 100% +$15

Crypto

21% — —

Sports

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	+1,200	$636	56¢	$666	+$30	07-04 03:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+580	$505	60¢	$345	$-160	06-23 12:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	-354	$24	8¢	$-27	$-50	06-16 16:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	23	$6.6K	3,516	4,016	-500	open	—	06-01 17:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	17	$5.1K	4,146	4,500	-354	open	—	06-16 16:01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	22	$5.1K	3,232	3,232	+0	open	—	06-20 10:24
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	9	$2.5K	2,000	2,500	-500	open	—	06-15 23:46
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	4	$1.9K	1,115	1,115	+0	open	—	06-21 13:46
iran closes its airspace by june 15	7	$1.3K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	06-07 21:01
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	29	$1.2K	779	779	+0	open	—	05-26 21:22
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	24	$1.0K	1,400	1,400	+0	open	—	06-29 18:28
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	10	$887	750	750	+0	open	—	05-02 18:17
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	12	$862	700	700	+0	No	+$32	05-05 21:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6	$794	1,012	340	+672	open	—	05-28 15:34
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	10	$707	780	810	-30	open	—	05-25 02:14
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	8	$636	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	07-04 03:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	13	$576	1,600	800	+800	open	—	05-20 15:18
iran closes its airspace by june 8	4	$511	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	06-07 20:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	11	$505	580	0	+580	open	—	06-23 12:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	7	$476	500	0	+500	open	—	06-05 09:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	9	$346	1,000	1,000	-0	open	—	06-12 09:18
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	7	$337	228	160	+68	open	—	05-26 11:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	6	$311	200	200	+0	open	—	05-06 06:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	8	$277	415	100	+315	open	—	06-01 11:56
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	9	$235	334	217	+117	open	—	05-10 00:51
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$214	125	125	+0	open	—	05-06 02:29
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	2	$210	235	0	+235	open	—	05-01 12:20
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	2	$189	100	100	+0	Yes	+$10	05-01 16:20
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	6	$185	159	159	+0	Yes	+$6	05-06 20:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	2	$178	94	94	+0	open	—	05-01 13:30
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	8	$79	1,373	1,600	-227	open	—	05-03 13:45
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	2	$74	86	0	+86	open	—	05-19 18:48
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$72	70	35	+35	open	—	05-20 19:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 03:13:01	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x1b443a…
07-04 00:16:35	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	48	53¢	$26	0xc75439…
07-04 00:03:26	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0x3a3e34…
07-01 17:54:08	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	22	53¢	$11	0xc2a270…
07-01 17:43:29	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$10	0xb5f7fb…
07-01 17:24:38	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0xf02741…
07-01 17:03:58	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	53	53¢	$28	0x79a9c8…
07-01 16:59:10	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	890	53¢	$472	0x331dc2…
06-29 18:28:17	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	350	38¢	$133	0x26097b…
06-29 17:45:35	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	197	37¢	$73	0x0142a0…
06-29 17:44:44	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	300	37¢	$111	0xb43385…
06-29 17:44:22	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	11	37¢	$4	0x5a82d8…
06-29 17:41:53	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	7	37¢	$2	0x67320a…
06-29 17:41:38	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x154f43…
06-29 17:35:07	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0xe9fb79…
06-29 17:34:34	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	23	37¢	$9	0xdd6f66…
06-29 17:33:56	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	73	37¢	$27	0xae2493…
06-29 17:33:56	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	9	37¢	$3	0x6e7be3…
06-29 17:28:43	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	60	37¢	$22	0xf2e18e…
06-29 17:28:23	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	22	37¢	$8	0xcac02e…
06-29 17:26:11	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	56	37¢	$21	0xa1d898…
06-29 17:22:50	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	36	37¢	$13	0x7c154e…
06-29 17:20:13	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	23	37¢	$9	0xe3ce9b…
06-29 17:19:29	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	11	37¢	$4	0x8c2773…
06-29 17:18:56	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x1c6938…
06-29 17:15:28	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	11	37¢	$4	0xdb8223…
06-29 17:15:11	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	6	37¢	$2	0x7465e2…
06-29 17:12:37	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	31	37¢	$12	0xc6eefa…
06-29 17:06:19	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	27	37¢	$10	0xaa52bf…
06-29 16:59:46	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	24	37¢	$9	0x9c6993…
06-29 16:57:37	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	59	37¢	$22	0x62dab1…
06-29 08:15:43	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	BUY	1,400	35¢	$490	0x479186…
06-23 12:03:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0xd7d0e1…
06-23 12:03:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x5ea759…
06-23 12:03:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	68	87¢	$59	0x5a804e…
06-23 11:56:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	35	87¢	$30	0xab2fb7…
06-23 11:56:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	37	87¢	$32	0xac6279…
06-23 11:48:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	66	87¢	$57	0xab20ff…
06-23 11:48:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	110	87¢	$96	0x9e5466…
06-23 11:41:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	106	87¢	$92	0x7f4903…
06-23 11:39:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	41	87¢	$36	0xf8de5e…
06-23 11:39:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	87¢	$12	0xde4fe5…
06-23 11:39:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	43	87¢	$37	0x0c8ca4…
06-21 13:46:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,115	88¢	$981	0x9b09ec…
06-20 10:24:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	151	95¢	$143	0x818779…
06-20 10:22:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0x9034ad…
06-20 10:20:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	105	95¢	$100	0xc96c0c…
06-20 10:20:50	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	105	95¢	$100	0x9d1c64…
06-20 10:17:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	105	95¢	$100	0x90e4f5…
06-20 10:15:17	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xa68f0b…
06-20 10:12:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x296a14…
06-20 10:10:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x98943e…
06-20 09:53:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	694	86¢	$597	0x5a3bb1…
06-20 09:49:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	306	86¢	$263	0x732054…
06-20 09:00:59	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	132	95¢	$125	0xbab533…
06-19 23:38:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	500	96¢	$480	0x70680c…
06-19 22:08:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x7f0d9f…
06-19 21:41:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	500	95¢	$475	0x5d0b57…
06-19 21:10:38	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	500	95¢	$475	0xcc0cb8…
06-19 21:06:08	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1,132	92¢	$1,041	0xe6b1e0…
06-19 21:02:43	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	1,100	92¢	$1,012	0x7ac771…
06-19 21:01:31	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	500	8¢	$40	0x6a275f…
06-19 20:58:50	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	19¢	$95	0xe953b8…
06-19 20:49:58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	600	80¢	$480	0xf41faf…
06-19 20:49:13	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	319	78¢	$249	0x766d1a…
06-19 20:48:46	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x281679…
06-19 20:48:19	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x599f87…
06-19 20:47:28	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	2	78¢	$1	0x627a09…
06-19 20:47:07	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	150	78¢	$117	0xd3aff3…
06-16 16:01:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	3,487	55¢	$1,921	0x9909b6…
06-16 15:57:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	213	57¢	$121	0xaec97a…
06-16 15:57:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	300	57¢	$171	0x1c7d13…
06-16 09:05:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2,500	60¢	$1,500	0x302bc8…
06-15 23:46:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	750	97¢	$725	0x745c7a…
06-15 17:24:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	178	96¢	$171	0x2d2d52…
06-15 17:24:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	572	96¢	$549	0xd5b56c…
06-15 13:40:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	500	65¢	$325	0xb89462…
06-15 07:58:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	242	64¢	$155	0xd0d882…
06-15 07:48:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x51366f…
06-15 07:48:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	499	64¢	$319	0x5f0949…
06-15 07:48:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	13	64¢	$8	0xa774ef…
06-15 07:48:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x56deb2…
06-15 07:45:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	26	64¢	$17	0x64b0f9…
06-15 07:45:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x9b78de…
06-15 07:35:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	32	64¢	$20	0x45198e…
06-15 07:26:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x3f4d3b…
06-15 07:25:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0xb3a3f9…
06-15 07:25:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	309	65¢	$201	0x79a409…
06-15 07:25:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	483	65¢	$314	0x39f37e…
06-15 07:13:43	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	900	86¢	$774	0x7f1695…
06-15 07:13:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x28c1a0…
06-15 07:13:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x072ca5…
06-12 09:18:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	250	19¢	$48	0x4b817b…
06-12 08:19:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	250	18¢	$45	0x38dadd…
06-11 17:33:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	500	18¢	$90	0x26713a…
06-09 13:30:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	500	10¢	$50	0x31e990…
06-09 13:17:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	500	9¢	$45	0xfc345a…
06-07 21:01:52	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	800	3¢	$26	0x18c08e…
06-07 20:58:34	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	131	8¢	$10	0xd4f98b…
06-07 20:58:33	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	369	8¢	$28	0x0af569…