Chubby-Prior — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$160

Unrealized P&L

+$5.40K

Hit rate

30.8%

Resolved

Trades

1,278

lifetime

Volume

$280.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$219

Open exposure

$14.8K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-22 05:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

67% — —

Politics

32% 25% $-160

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+12,543	$7,010	99¢	$12.4K	+$5,401	07-07 21:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+2,284	$1,073	46¢	$1.1K	$-11	07-22 04:05
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	No	+1,000	$778	82¢	$820	+$42	07-04 05:09
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+334	$249	73¢	$244	$-6	07-11 05:43
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+328	$156	32¢	$105	$-51	07-10 18:40
RFK Jr. Out by December 31?	No	+122	$50	64¢	$79	+$29	06-26 14:12
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?	Yes	+192	$32	11¢	$21	$-11	07-08 19:57
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?	Yes	+72	$9	18¢	$13	+$4	07-07 21:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	86	$42.7K	25,304	25,304	+0	open	—	05-27 16:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	113	$33.5K	19,569	19,416	+153	open	—	04-27 12:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	82	$31.8K	22,840	22,621	+219	open	—	05-25 06:21
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	23	$13.2K	0	19,750	-19,750	open	—	06-07 19:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	17	$11.9K	15,347	2,804	+12,543	open	—	07-07 21:51
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	32	$9.7K	6,413	6,413	+0	open	—	03-04 01:41
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 16 million 278	36	$8.9K	7,565	7,565	+0	open	—	02-16 05:36
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 8 million	30	$8.4K	5,257	5,257	+0	open	—	02-16 05:44
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 12 million 218	39	$8.3K	6,181	6,181	+0	open	—	02-16 05:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	22	$8.2K	7,908	2,469	+5,439	open	—	06-14 15:03
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 10 million	31	$7.5K	6,209	6,209	+0	open	—	02-16 05:45
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	47	$7.3K	14,626	14,661	-34	open	—	02-27 04:13
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 7 million	18	$7.0K	3,942	3,942	+0	open	—	02-16 05:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	7	$6.7K	3,819	3,819	+0	open	—	04-29 22:03
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 15 million 268	25	$6.6K	5,249	5,249	-0	open	—	02-16 05:36
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by january 31	49	$6.1K	10,612	5,729	+4,883	open	—	01-22 01:31
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	3	$6.1K	7,073	0	+7,073	open	—	07-22 05:14
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by march 31 2026	10	$4.2K	5,465	0	+5,465	open	—	02-28 08:11
Kash Patel out by May 31?	32	$3.7K	7,279	5,224	+2,055	open	—	05-13 21:45
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$2.2K	1,362	1,362	+0	open	—	07-20 00:06
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?	31	$2.1K	4,810	1,532	+3,277	open	—	04-28 01:58
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?	14	$2.0K	2,618	731	+1,886	open	—	04-21 03:58
will the 2026 state of the union address be between 90 and 100 minutes long	3	$2.0K	1,110	1,110	+0	open	—	02-25 05:23
will bill or hillary clinton be held in contempt of congress by feb 28	9	$1.9K	1,302	1,302	+0	open	—	02-02 23:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	17	$1.9K	0	2,108	-2,108	open	—	05-28 17:11
will the 2026 state of the union address last 100 minutes or longer	12	$1.8K	2,457	1,349	+1,108	open	—	02-25 02:16
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	29	$1.8K	1,757	1,475	+282	open	—	01-09 05:40
will israel strike lebanon on january 10 2026	32	$1.8K	2,017	1,953	+65	open	—	01-10 16:17
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	12	$1.5K	1,849	1,849	+0	open	—	03-03 20:30
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?	2	$1.4K	801	795	+6	open	—	04-22 17:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 05:14:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	166	87¢	$144	0xa70586…
07-22 04:05:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0xdf0c3e…
07-22 04:05:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	868	47¢	$408	0x39953c…
07-22 03:12:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	131	47¢	$62	0xee5e22…
07-22 01:11:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,185	47¢	$557	0x7eab64…
07-22 01:11:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,077	86¢	$926	0xc453a2…
07-21 22:47:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	5,830	86¢	$5,014	0x428c77…
07-21 20:32:04	todd blanche disbarred or suspended in ny in 2026 20260713190235888	No	BUY	85	82¢	$69	0x68897a…
07-21 00:06:43	will spider man brand new day score at least 95 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026314	No	BUY	89	65¢	$57	0x63294a…
07-20 00:06:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1,362	100¢	$1,360	0xaabe7d…
07-15 17:41:40	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 20 2026 20260714195149522	Yes	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0xe2878b…
07-11 05:43:35	Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	101	75¢	$75	0x98996c…
07-11 01:41:04	Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0x48081a…
07-10 18:42:32	Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	193	75¢	$144	0x3cf558…
07-10 18:40:07	Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	328	47¢	$156	0xcfe83e…
07-09 20:17:58	will floridas save our homes from excessive property taxes referendum pass in november 2026 20260708194332212	Yes	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0xb1cfcb…
07-09 13:29:17	will floridas save our homes from excessive property taxes referendum pass in november 2026 20260708194332212	No	BUY	370	47¢	$172	0x9a9398…
07-08 21:50:05	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	379	79¢	$300	0x976700…
07-08 19:57:07	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?	Yes	BUY	192	17¢	$32	0x24a6de…
07-08 19:56:22	us embassy in damascus reopened by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0xe395c4…
07-08 19:55:40	us embassy in damascus reopened by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	259	26¢	$67	0xd4632e…
07-08 04:10:58	will trump talk to mojtaba khamenei by december 31	Yes	BUY	39	10¢	$4	0x5004e7…
07-08 02:35:43	will trump talk to mojtaba khamenei by december 31	Yes	BUY	194	10¢	$19	0xf60dfc…
07-08 02:33:53	will trump talk to mojtaba khamenei by december 31	Yes	BUY	836	10¢	$81	0xba8037…
07-07 21:51:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2,000	94¢	$1,880	0xc7ad78…
07-07 21:39:10	Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	72	13¢	$9	0x2ac4a8…
07-07 21:37:23	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	BUY	1,059	82¢	$872	0x50ce55…
07-05 05:35:20	U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?	No	BUY	95	2¢	$2	0x7f09d2…
07-05 05:34:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	565	84¢	$475	0x595a57…
07-04 05:09:08	US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	78¢	$778	0xa7a911…
07-03 05:20:10	will the house pass a reconciliation bill by july 30 20260626182353438	No	BUY	82	91¢	$74	0x6a9665…
06-26 14:12:21	RFK Jr. Out by December 31?	No	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0x54d06c…
06-16 14:01:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1,362	59¢	$803	0xab124c…
06-14 15:03:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,000	84¢	$840	0x28ea5b…
06-14 14:47:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	137	86¢	$118	0x939bc6…
06-14 14:47:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	505	86¢	$434	0x6f42c3…
06-14 06:14:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	80	44¢	$35	0x8c4af0…
06-14 06:14:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,052	44¢	$463	0x63c0df…
06-13 14:23:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	171	46¢	$79	0xad820a…
06-13 14:23:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	68	47¢	$32	0x87821e…
06-13 14:09:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	136	81¢	$110	0xc884aa…
06-13 14:07:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	168	81¢	$136	0xe90fe2…
06-13 14:04:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	30	81¢	$24	0x440576…
06-13 14:04:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0x095114…
06-13 14:04:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0x1a2d33…
06-13 13:58:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	386	81¢	$313	0x8c0f88…
06-11 23:44:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,597	54¢	$862	0xdb2338…
06-11 16:19:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	870	77¢	$670	0x6fcfae…
06-11 13:38:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	343	76¢	$261	0xe0c229…
06-08 21:49:30	will spencer pratt concede by june 15 20260608151037170	Yes	BUY	28	37¢	$10	0x787642…
06-08 02:09:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	77	90¢	$69	0x6161c4…
06-07 19:30:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	2,094	80¢	$1,671	0xabca3b…
06-06 05:17:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2,369	66¢	$1,564	0x2ab5b7…
06-06 04:27:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2,714	66¢	$1,791	0x3ddcfd…
06-05 15:46:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	4,322	65¢	$2,809	0x5198f7…
06-03 17:07:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	190	72¢	$137	0xc585d0…
06-03 17:04:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	14	72¢	$10	0x0a4e0b…
06-03 16:59:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x6ea722…
06-03 16:56:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xe99947…
06-03 16:55:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	35	72¢	$25	0x60c659…
06-03 00:49:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,369	79¢	$1,082	0x5922f5…
06-03 00:17:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	90	79¢	$71	0x4438fe…
06-02 21:46:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,153	79¢	$911	0xd36177…
06-02 21:45:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,334	79¢	$1,054	0xb9eda5…
06-02 21:36:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x12f0cd…
06-02 21:07:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	90	79¢	$71	0xa95b4a…
06-02 20:57:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,265	79¢	$999	0x285520…
06-02 20:50:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	7,032	67¢	$4,711	0x95efa5…
06-02 20:43:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	1,538	67¢	$1,030	0x4533ea…
06-02 20:40:41	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	254	67¢	$170	0x642459…
06-01 03:35:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	77	73¢	$56	0xc94f12…
06-01 03:35:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	770	73¢	$562	0x21e542…
06-01 03:28:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	153	73¢	$112	0xe90932…
06-01 03:28:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,344	73¢	$981	0xa70121…
06-01 00:10:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	163	72¢	$117	0x5537c1…
05-31 18:32:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	987	51¢	$503	0xee1f0f…
05-31 18:31:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	13	51¢	$7	0xa323bd…
05-31 18:31:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	890	51¢	$454	0x9d75e3…
05-31 18:29:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	102	51¢	$52	0x1d7de3…
05-31 18:28:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x0efc4d…
05-28 17:11:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	199	89¢	$177	0x455824…
05-28 17:07:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x96dc98…
05-28 16:56:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xbf20d3…
05-28 16:56:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	16	90¢	$15	0x062bd0…
05-28 16:56:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x2844bc…
05-28 16:56:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x995fa4…
05-28 16:53:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	455	90¢	$409	0x3399d4…
05-28 16:50:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xaaff43…
05-28 16:49:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x468e22…
05-28 16:45:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xcde495…
05-28 16:42:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x46bdf5…
05-28 16:42:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x36fd91…
05-28 16:41:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x5cb350…
05-28 16:37:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x74b3c0…
05-28 16:32:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	376	90¢	$338	0xf4f818…
05-28 04:30:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	500	92¢	$460	0x1fb131…
05-28 03:41:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	SELL	540	91¢	$491	0xfef44a…
05-27 23:16:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	500	64¢	$320	0x5a902f…
05-27 23:01:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	345	64¢	$221	0xf6dfa8…
05-27 23:01:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0x870e91…