Repulsive-Duration — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5.75K

Unrealized P&L

-$216

Hit rate

46.4%

Resolved

213

Trades

6,306

lifetime

Volume

$89.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$2.00K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 10-31 10:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Politics

57% 21% -$430

Other

25% 40% -$3,230

Sports

15% 39% -$2,774

Crypto

3% 27% +$908

Tech

0% 0% -$221

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 538 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	+48,797	$1,892	4¢	$1.8K	-$111	10-31 10:32
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	+8,240	$175	2¢	$128	-$47	10-11 12:18
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	+1,452	$94	3¢	$41	-$53	10-04 14:26
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	+707	$25	3¢	$18	-$7	09-18 22:25
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	-20	-$12	58¢	$-12	+$0	07-03 14:53
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	No	-11	-$9	97¢	$-11	-$2	06-01 17:21
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+5,083	$23	0¢	$8	-$15	10-28 13:38
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	Yes	-350	-$24	2¢	$-6	+$19	04-28 13:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	238	$11.7K	666,117	530,108	+136,009	No	-$245	03-04 18:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	41	$4.4K	406,097	56,597	+349,500	Yes	+$1,597	03-04 00:21
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	24	$3.8K	5,850	6,850	-1,000	Yes	+$2,271	04-08 01:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	9	$3.7K	5,600	3,600	+2,000	Yes	+$2,490	04-07 23:58
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	49	$3.2K	148,811	57,937	+90,874	Yes	-$1,159	03-04 17:46
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	7	$2.9K	2,500	1,500	+1,000	No	+$1,036	03-24 13:09
cbb ill hou 2026 03 26	2	$2.9K	2,550	2,550	+0	Illinois Fighting Illini	-$25	03-26 19:16
will the us invade iran by march 31	24	$2.7K	1,915	2,015	-100	No	+$13	03-27 14:02
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	29	$2.4K	17,003	2,003	+15,000	Yes	+$64	04-08 11:40
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	55	$2.3K	35,584	6,584	+29,000	No	-$1,512	07-06 03:01
dtrump out as president by september 30	192	$2.3K	360,995	42,771	+318,223	No	-$1,582	09-23 10:57
nba cle lal 2026 03 31	13	$2.2K	2,250	883	+1,367	Lakers	+$879	04-01 04:45
Trump out as President before 2027?	119	$2.1K	50,624	1,827	+48,797	open	—	10-31 10:32
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	339	$1.9K	81,200	92,022	-10,822	No	+$116	03-23 13:15
netanyahu out by march 31 854	50	$1.9K	68,931	49,231	+19,700	No	-$714	04-05 04:50
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	93	$1.8K	104,037	22,000	+82,037	No	-$320	07-06 03:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	69	$1.7K	28,683	28,785	-102	No	-$821	04-21 18:17
nhl chi sea 2026 04 04 spread home 1pt5	3	$1.7K	4,300	0	+4,300	Blackhawks	-$1,712	04-05 01:23
israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	19	$1.6K	1,148	1,168	-20	No	+$134	03-30 12:16
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	220	$1.3K	62,071	31,618	+30,454	No	-$232	05-11 17:23
nba cle lal 2026 03 31 total 236pt5	13	$1.1K	1,208	1,189	+19	Over	+$10	04-01 00:37
cs2 gl1 nip 2026 04 02	4	$990	1,000	566	+434	GamerLegion	+$444	04-02 20:42
Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?	37	$977	3,595	138	+3,457	Yes	-$939	04-26 11:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	12	$976	4,500	4,500	+0	Yes	+$52	04-09 21:54
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	14	$948	10,150	2,150	+8,000	No	-$155	04-04 22:13
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	22	$903	3,215	3,214	+1	No	+$85	03-27 02:36
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	11	$903	800	249	+551	Yes	+$105	03-26 18:57
Trump out as President by August 31?	858	$888	149,789	78,738	+71,050	No	-$268	08-30 02:35
will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	29	$859	7,789	0	+7,789	No	-$859	04-12 17:31
cs2 bb3 hero 2026 04 03	20	$847	1,251	806	+445	BetBoom Team	+$529	04-03 18:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 10:32:10	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	508	3¢	$16	0x403548…
10-31 07:49:04	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$7	0x0ebc3d…
10-30 20:44:54	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	108	4¢	$4	0xe7294c…
10-30 19:43:37	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x129578…
10-30 18:35:15	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	61	4¢	$2	0xba94be…
10-30 17:40:58	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0xe609e6…
10-29 16:43:32	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	4¢	$11	0x65ec49…
10-29 16:29:29	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	4¢	$12	0x22ab11…
10-29 05:58:46	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	147	4¢	$5	0x93d93b…
10-29 05:58:34	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x84d318…
10-29 05:58:28	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xca7a45…
10-29 05:58:26	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$38	0x2e340a…
10-29 05:40:59	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0xc2c5c7…
10-29 05:40:59	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xc14da4…
10-29 04:00:26	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	115	4¢	$5	0xa0ce93…
10-29 02:12:17	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,422	4¢	$99	0x66e8a6…
10-28 21:45:01	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	143	5¢	$6	0x000dc4…
10-28 20:20:10	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	264	5¢	$14	0xe9e8d8…
10-28 20:20:05	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x743e98…
10-28 18:21:05	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xbcae99…
10-28 18:16:04	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	173	4¢	$6	0x0c9eb7…
10-28 18:14:29	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$18	0x2e26f8…
10-28 18:13:02	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$19	0x008bb5…
10-28 18:12:55	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$20	0x675917…
10-28 18:07:19	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x5239f8…
10-28 18:07:17	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$20	0x158fb9…
10-28 18:01:47	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	93	4¢	$4	0x900aff…
10-28 17:52:52	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$22	0x6634f0…
10-28 17:33:59	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	85	4¢	$4	0x41e7a3…
10-28 16:31:53	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,024	5¢	$47	0xaa5000…
10-28 16:04:40	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	116	4¢	$5	0x799b46…
10-28 15:20:40	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x271cdf…
10-28 15:20:35	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	83	4¢	$4	0x9b58a3…
10-28 15:15:31	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	28	5¢	$1	0x3c5bd7…
10-28 14:23:53	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	55	4¢	$2	0xb8da98…
10-28 14:04:16	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	46	4¢	$2	0x28e582…
10-28 13:47:22	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	5¢	$1	0xaaa127…
10-28 13:38:34	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	199	0¢	$0	0xf4bd05…
10-28 13:18:31	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0xeb0102…
10-28 13:01:26	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$11	0x6edbd7…
10-28 12:58:26	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	52	4¢	$2	0xdf5812…
10-28 06:09:17	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x82977a…
10-28 05:51:52	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xd1b83b…
10-28 01:46:44	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x4ac32f…
10-28 01:02:45	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	420	5¢	$21	0x93189f…
10-28 01:02:41	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	290	5¢	$14	0x320765…
10-28 01:02:38	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0x8b18c0…
10-27 21:24:29	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	0¢	$0	0x5d2f09…
10-27 01:27:18	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	704	0¢	$1	0x0cc62a…
10-25 23:51:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	BUY	98	9¢	$9	0x2339b9…
10-25 23:25:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x8507fc…
10-25 23:12:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	300	14¢	$42	0xfdd293…
10-25 23:06:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	BUY	1,000	11¢	$110	0x004bcb…
10-25 23:05:42	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	922	5¢	$45	0xb2c92e…
10-25 23:05:30	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	284	5¢	$14	0xf89ebe…
10-25 23:05:23	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	342	5¢	$17	0xcb4c5a…
10-25 22:59:02	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	BUY	344	10¢	$34	0xcb274d…
10-25 22:57:23	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	259	5¢	$13	0x48c1bd…
10-24 22:05:33	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xc75d05…
10-24 18:11:36	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$2	0x062c34…
10-22 06:46:33	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0xef049c…
10-22 06:46:08	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x7db24e…
10-22 06:46:06	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xc34500…
10-22 06:46:05	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$3	0x84e534…
10-15 18:35:23	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$16	0xd0bf6d…
10-15 18:35:23	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$17	0x3424de…
10-15 17:27:08	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$19	0x086a16…
10-14 14:49:34	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	62	4¢	$2	0x2b814e…
10-14 13:47:32	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	271	4¢	$11	0xd5bd01…
10-14 06:51:19	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$40	0xb81cf9…
10-13 20:24:46	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	451	4¢	$17	0xe7d538…
10-13 20:17:27	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	49	4¢	$2	0x022a50…
10-13 20:14:39	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	571	4¢	$22	0xff32b3…
10-13 20:14:36	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x4e7a69…
10-13 20:13:58	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	992	4¢	$38	0x8b0abe…
10-13 18:49:13	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0xe7af90…
10-13 18:25:33	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xace5ab…
10-13 16:31:37	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xba91fa…
10-13 12:30:29	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	62	4¢	$2	0xf8eb4b…
10-13 09:58:26	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x04e94f…
10-13 08:52:14	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x2125e7…
10-13 05:56:24	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0x019571…
10-13 04:57:09	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0xda1181…
10-13 01:12:17	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$39	0xdc2566…
10-13 01:12:08	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	141	4¢	$5	0x7989c8…
10-11 12:18:45	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$12	0x55a6bd…
10-11 02:05:56	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x6723a5…
10-10 14:06:39	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x99e93d…
10-10 14:06:37	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xbec6cd…
10-10 14:05:45	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x7ef8be…
10-10 13:09:31	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	86	3¢	$2	0x90ea49…
10-10 12:44:48	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	51	3¢	$1	0x315a71…
10-10 08:57:28	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	3¢	$1	0x23885b…
10-10 00:17:43	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0xd4a40b…
10-09 12:05:06	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	211	3¢	$6	0x0ef359…
10-08 19:23:17	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x73f291…
10-08 17:58:03	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x05dd0c…
10-07 10:14:32	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	277	3¢	$7	0x1bb608…
10-07 04:59:41	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$5	0xaf802e…
10-07 03:19:00	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0xf31468…